汶川地震序列动态跟踪与甘肃震情动态判定的预报实践感悟

在汶川地震序列的动态跟踪与甘肃震情的动态判定过程中,本文作者成功地把握了甘肃震情、一定程度上把握了汶川地震序列的动态发展变化,并对5月18日四川江油发生的6.0级地震作出了成功预测。这一预测实践使本文作者更加深刻地感悟到,地震预报虽然是一个十分复杂的没有被攻克的世界性难题,但对于一个特定的地区,如果预报思路和方法得当,要实现一次乃至数次成功的预报是可能的。这对地球科学家们如何认识地震预报问题有一定的意义。     

汶川地震所见的零星感受与启示

本文从一个普通地震工作者的个人角度,叙述了个人在汶川现场1个多月的部分感受和受到的启示。在这里提出来希望与大家共勉和探讨。     

数字地震观测中由台风产生的震颤信号分析

本文的工作源于我们在以宽频数字地震计和倾斜、重力仪开展对"慢地震"、"前驱波"等信号连续观测和分析的过程中,观测到不少异常的波动信号.在探讨这些异常信号的产生原因的研究中,发现其中一部分由热带气旋(台风)产生.     

地理试题透视六大解题思维——以浙江省选考试题为例

思维是指人脑借助于语言对客观事物的概括和间接反应的过程,以感知为基础,又超越感知的界限,它探索与发现事物的内部本质联系和规律性,是认识过程的高级阶段。目前国内针对地理解题的思维研究相对较少,本文以浙江省历年选考地理试题为例,总结和提炼出六大解题思维,即:逆向思维、收支平衡思维、比较思维、发散思维、空间思维、辩证思维,旨在帮助学生掌握分析和解答地理问题的方法,从而有效提升高中地理学习和复习效果,增强学生学习地理的兴趣。同时在培养学生的地理解题思维过程中,落实地理学科核心素养的培育。     

基于CMIP5多模式集合资料的中国气温和降水预估及概率分析

选用国际耦合模式比较计划第五阶段（CMIP5）提供的30个全球大气-海洋耦合模式（AOGCMs）在典型浓度路径（RCPs）情景下气温和降水量的预估结果,采用扰动法,用站点观测资料作为气候背景场替代AOGCM模拟的气候平均,尝试校正气候预估结果的系统性偏差。通过集合方法,用概率的形式给出中国平均气温升高1 ℃,2 ℃和3 ℃以及降水量增加10%,20%和30%概率的空间分布,讨论了中国未来平均气温和降水量可能的变化。结果表明：经过扰动法处理后的气温和降水量预估集合保留了当前气候的局地信息。预估平均气温在中国均有上升,北方地区尤其是青藏高原地区变暖的程度大于南方地区,北方大部分地区平均气温升高的趋势为0.28 ℃/10a。在21世纪初,中国北方地区年平均气温升高1 ℃的可能性超过50%。到了21世纪末期,中国大部分地区平均气温升高2 ℃的可能性超过60%,新疆北部以及青藏高原南部地区气温升高3 ℃的可能性超过50%。预估中国降水量普遍增多,中国北方地区降水量增多的程度要明显大于江淮流域及其以南地区,尤其是西北地区降水量增多非常显著,降水量增多30%的可能性超过70%以上。     

Relationships between Interannual and Intraseasonal Variations of the Asian-Western Pacific Summer Monsoon Hindcasted by BCC_CSM1.1（m）

Using hindcasts of the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model, the relationships between interannual variability （IAV） and intraseasonal variability （ISV） of the Asian-western Pacific summer monsoon are diagnosed. Predictions show reasonable skill with respect to some basic characteristics of the ISV and IAV of the western North Pacific summer monsoon （WNPSM） and the Indian summer monsoon （ISM）. However, the links between the seasonally averaged ISV （SAISV） and seasonal mean of ISM are overestimated by the model. This deficiency may be partially attributable to the overestimated frequency of long breaks and underestimated frequency of long active spells of ISV in normal ISM years, although the model is capable of capturing the impact of ISV on the seasonal mean by its shift in the probability of phases. Furthermore, the interannual relationships of seasonal mean, SAISV, and seasonally averaged long-wave variability （SALWV; i.e., the part with periods longer than the intraseasonal scale） of the WNPSM and ISM with SST and low-level circulation are examined. The observed seasonal mean, SAISV, and SALWV show similar correlation patterns with SST and atmospheric circulation, but with different details. However, the model presents these correlation distributions with unrealistically small differences among different scales, and it somewhat overestimates the teleconnection between monsoon and tropical central-eastern Pacific SST for the ISM, but underestimates it for the WNPSM, the latter of which is partially related to the too-rapid decrease in the impact of E1 Nifio-Southern Oscillation with forecast time in the model.     

舒适度测量仪探测系统开发

舒适度测量仪探测系统主要由采集器、传感器、支架、供水系统、通信模块、数据采集软件6个部分组成.除通信模块之外,其他5个部分都是全新设计.采集器是系统的核心,负责数据的采集、处理和传输;数据采集软件安装在中心服务器上,负责数据的采集、处理、显示和存储,并能远程监测和遥控探测现场的设备.此外,对舒适度的相关理论进行分析,给出适合广州地区的舒适度指数分级标准,并对舒适度测量仪探测数据进行分析.近一年的试运行表明,系统运行稳定、探测数据可靠、适合业务组网的要求.     

Mapping hydrothermal alteration in the Comstock mining district,Nevada, using simulated satellite‐borne hyperspectral data

Hydrothermal alteration mapping with spaceborne hyperspectral data was simulated in the Comstock mining district, Nevada in order to evaluate the mineral mapping capabilities of the proposed Australian Resource Information and Environment Satellite (ARIES‐1). As a result, a suite of hydrothermal alteration minerals, including kaolinite, dickite, illite, chlorite, alunite and carbonate was identified from the simulated data in the 0.4–2.5 μm wavelength region and their areal abundance variations mapped accordingly. The recognised alteration zoning shows a major change in alteration assemblages across the Comstock and Silver City Faults, and a gradual variation from north to south along the faults. In the bleached Miocene volcanic rocks, dickite, kaolinite, illite and alunite were recognised. Coexistence of dickite of relatively high temperature, high‐crystallinity kaolinite of medium temperature and low‐crystallinity kaolinite of low temperature suggests supergene processes overprinting earlier hypogene alteration. The bleached rocks probably represent hydrothermal alteration in the fluid up‐flow zones in the central and shallower parts of the hydrothermal system. Illite in the bleached zones is characterised by relatively short AI–OH band wavelengths (2190–2200 nm), indicating no or very low Fe and/or Mg contents. Fault‐controlled propylitic alteration is mapped in the central part of the district mainly in the footwall of the Comstock Fault. The associated illite is characterised mainly by medium AI–OH band wavelengths (2200–2208 nm). This propylitic alteration may be contemporaneous with Au–Ag mineralisation. Additional and more extensive propylitic zones, containing illite with long AI–OH band wavelengths (2204–2216 nm), were mapped in the southern part of the district. These zones resulted from either a pre‐mineralisation propylitic alteration, or the peripheral hydrothermal alteration in the fluid down‐flow zones of the Miocene hydrothermal system.     

内陆河流域分布式日出山径流模型——以黑河干流山区流域为例

应用常规的气象水文数据并结合GIS,建立了一个适合西北干旱区内陆河山区流域的以日为步长的分布式径流模型,并对黑河干流山区出山径流进行了模拟计算和讨论。模型以子流域作为最小的产流、汇流单元,根据植被覆盖将各子流域分为裸地区、乔木区、牧草区和冰川区,并根据实际调查将土壤分为 3层,各分区单独进行水量平衡计算。产流过程以土壤储水能力和储水量表征,而储水能力和储水量等则由土壤的孔隙度、干密度和厚度等表征。入渗原理基于土壤储水率平衡原理,并考虑重力势的作用。实际蒸散发与蒸发力和土壤体积含水量的乘积成正比,不同的土壤和植被具有不同的调节参数。模拟结果表明,模拟效果较差的原因是区域日降水过程具有较大的随机性,难以用有限的站点合理计算区域日降水量。寻找一个合适的区域日降水量计算方法是目前少资料大型流域分布式水文模型模拟成功的关键。     

山旺盆地的成因及其地质意义

前人一般认为山旺盆地是一个深度不大的封闭性淡水剥蚀盆地。笔者认为它是一个火山口成因的封闭—半封闭盆地。盆地的发展经历了3个发展阶段:早期为火山喷发作用形成火山口,并造成火山碎屑物堆积:中期堆积了较厚层的沉积物,主要为粘土质岩石,如硅藻质页岩、泥岩,此外,还有少量的砂岩、砾岩;晚期为玄武岩充填,致使整个盆地完全封闭。在盆地发展过程中,早期为封闭环境,中、晚期为半封闭环境。火山碎屑物的再堆积和分解对于生物死亡和埋藏可能具有重要的意义;该区第三纪中心式火山作用非常强烈,通过详细的区域地质调查,有可能找到更多的化石产地和硅藻土矿。