中国近45年来气候变化的研究

利用１９５１～１９９５年约４００站的月平均气温、降水和１９６１～１９９５年２００余站的最高和最低气温、相对湿度、总云量和低云量、日照时数、蒸发、风速和积雪日数和深度以及０～３．２ｍ共８层土壤温度等资料,对近４５ａ来中国气候变化特征作了一个较全面的分析研究。本文作为第一部分,分析了平均气温、最高最低气温、降水、相对湿度和日照的气候变化规律。其余要素的变化规律以及中国气候变化的可能机制将在第二部分中加以讨论。     

DISASTER ANALYSIS AND COUNTERMEASURES OF LAND SUBSIDENCE CAUSED BY COAL CUTTING IN CHINA

In recent years, many coal-producing countries have paid great attention to the land subsidence causedby coal cutting. In China, because of the dense population in coalfield areas, the land subsidence hazard is more seri-ous. After a brief analysis on the mechanism of land subsidence, this paper gives a comprehensive and systematical ac-count on all kinds of hazards caused by the land subsidence in China. The study shows that land subsidence has endan-gered land, buildings, traffic and communication lines, dykes and dams. It also causes damage to ecological and socialenvironment. In order to lessen the hazard of land subsidence, preventive measures should be taken to reduce the col-lapse amount, such as extraction with stowing, banded mining system, succession and coordination mining system, orhigh-pressure mudflow between rock strata. Measures of reinforcing or moving certain buildings should also be taken toreduce the destructive degree. In order to harness the subsidence land and bring them under control for fanning, mea-sures should be taken such as filling with spoil or fine breeze, excavating the deeper and covering the shallower land.     

核地球物理和化探综合测量在上海市区工程地质调查中的应用

本文介绍在上海市区断裂构造调查中 ,核地球物理测量和化探的应用效果。应用α卡、地面伽马能谱U、Th、K和总量 (Σ)及壤中气汞等测量方法 ,采用组合指标推断断裂构造 ,推断出的断裂构造与地震推断的结果相比较 ,具有较好的一致性。这些方法经济、快速、有效 ,有着广泛的应用前景     

博格达造山带东段芨芨台子地区早二叠世双峰式火山岩地球化学特征及其地质意义

博格达造山带东段芨芨台子地区早二叠世玄武岩和中酸性火山岩在时空上构成双峰式火山岩组合,其岩石类型主要为亚碱性玄武岩和流纹岩,主体属钙碱性系列。玄武岩SiO2含量为47.70%~51.71%,TiO2含量(1.26%~1.52%)略高于N型大洋中脊玄武岩,高Al(Al2O3=14.06%~20.93%),富Na贫K(Na2O/K2O=2.34~28.36),低Mg(MgO=2.99%~8.62%,Mg#为27~52),表明其玄武岩浆发生过明显的橄榄石和辉石的分离结晶作用;玄武岩轻稀土元素略微富集,Eu异常不明显(δEu=0.85~1.02),相对富集Rb、Ba、P等大离子亲石元素,亏损Nb、Ta、Sr、Ti等不相容元素。火山岩地球化学特征表明,研究区玄武质岩浆来自于亏损岩石圈地幔的部分熔融,且受到一定程度的地壳物质混染,显示了板内玄武岩的地球化学特征形成于陆内伸展环境。流纹岩具有较高的SiO2(73.58%~75.45%)和全碱(Na2O+K2O=8.56%~8.79%)含量,以及较低的TiO2(0.12%~0.18%)、Al2O3(12.77%~13.24%)和MgO(平均为0.21%)含量;显示右倾负斜率稀土配分模式,Eu负异常明显(δEu为0.52~0.70),显著富集Rb、Ba、Th等大离子亲石元素,强烈亏损Nb、Ta、Sr、P、Ti等高场强元素,具有A型花岗岩的地球化学特征,为后碰撞伸展环境下底侵玄武岩浆结晶分异的产物。博格达造山带东部芨芨台子地区双峰式火山岩的地球化学特征表明,该套火山岩应形成于碰撞后伸展环境,同时获得流纹岩锆石U-Pb年龄为(294.2±1.3)Ma,表明该套火山岩形成于早二叠世早期。这一发现进一步证实了研究区在历经石炭纪汇聚碰撞事件后进入二叠纪后碰撞伸展的演化时期,为进一步理解博格达地区晚古生代构造格局及板块构造体制提供了重要的地质依据。     

Impacts of land use change and groundwater management on long-term nitrate-nitrogen and chloride trends in groundwater of Jeju Island,Korea

Impacts of land use changes and groundwater management actions on groundwater quality were evaluated at the island scale with spatiotemporal trends of NO₃-N and Cl concentrations in groundwater of Jeju Island, Korea. The temporal trends from 1993 to 2012 in the concentrations of NO₃-N and Cl from more than 3900 wells were estimated using the Mann–Kendall trend test and Sen’s slope analysis and compared with the land use change trend for the period 1995–2009. The results indicate that the upward trends in NO₃-N were associated with the expansion of agricultural lands, whereas Cl trends were considered to be affected by other factors in addition to the land use changes. In the mid-mountainous region, the deterioration in the groundwater quality by the both NO₃-N and Cl was expected due to the continuous expansion of agricultural lands. In the lowland area, the NO₃-N and Cl components showed different trends depending on the regions. In the eastern area, increasing trends in NO₃-N were observed due to the development of new agricultural areas, while the Cl concentration was observed to decrease as a result of the regulation on groundwater extraction to reduce seawater intrusion. Our study highlights that a comprehensive interpretation of trends in NO₃-N and Cl and land use changes for long-term periods can provide useful insights to prepare for suitable groundwater management plans in the whole island perspective.     

西昆仑-喀喇昆仑造山带锂矿成矿特征与成矿规律初探

西昆仑- 喀喇昆仑造山带中生代花岗伟晶岩相当发育,主要分布于麻扎- 康西瓦缝合带以南的喀喇昆仑造山带,构成了西自木吉—塔什库尔干,东到大红柳滩长达600 km的喀喇昆仑稀有金属成矿带。通过多年的研究,本文对西昆仑- 喀喇昆仑造山带37处稀有金属矿床(点)进行了全面系统的梳理,认为喀喇昆仑- 喀喇昆仑造山带表现为“西铍东锂”的格局,稀有金属成矿年龄集中213~206 Ma。将喀喇昆仑造山带稀有金属成矿带划分为木吉- 塔什库尔干稀有金属成矿亚带、赛图拉- 大红柳滩稀有金属成矿亚带,从西向东可划定4个矿化集中区：木吉- 布伦口稀有金属集中区、塔什库尔干- 塔吐鲁沟稀有金属矿化集中区、康西瓦稀有金属矿化集中区、大红柳滩- 白龙山稀有金属矿化集中区。同时,认为西昆仑- 喀喇昆仑造山带西段下一阶段的找矿可放在西合休南锂铍找矿远景区、阿然保泰铍找矿远景区、木吉西锂铍找矿远景区。     

梅雨锋的典型结构、多样性和多尺度特征

在天气尺度梅雨锋的天气学定义基础上,利用GMS-5静止卫星红外云图、常规气象探空资料、NCEP再分析与最终分析资料对2002年长江流域典型梅雨期6月26—28日和二度梅期间7月23日、1998年5月梅雨与7月二度梅共4个梅雨锋个例进行了分析与比较,归纳了梅雨锋结构多样性;并着重对典型梅雨期的梅雨锋发展过程、水平以及垂直结构进行了多种物理量场(包括风场、温度场、急流、锋区、假相当位温、散度、垂直速度、静力稳定度等)的综合分析。结果表明,不同的个例,不同的地区和时期,一次梅雨过程的不同阶段,梅雨锋的结构和性质都有可能不同,它可以从比较接近极锋的性质过渡到接近赤道锋的性质。在水平结构上梅雨锋是在高、低纬度不同尺度的环流系统共同作用下形成的,从而造成了梅雨锋结构具有丰富的多样性。对典型梅雨锋结构进行综合分析表明梅雨锋对流层中下层锋面由强假相当位温水平梯度形成;梅雨锋南侧为暖湿气团、北侧为变性气团;梅雨锋南面为西南季风、北面为偏东气流;梅雨锋的上升运动和强降水主要发生在梅雨锋的前沿;梅雨锋上方对流层上半部存在与副热带高空急流相配合的高空副热带锋;对流层上部的高空热带东风与副热带高空西风急流构成了梅雨锋降水的高空辐散流场。根据典型期梅雨锋以及二度梅倾斜型梅雨锋的对流层上、中、下水平环流特征,给出了梅雨锋的多尺度概念模型,主要包括中低纬度系统相互作用、对流层高层的行星尺度的环流系统副热带高空西风急流、高空热带东风急流与南亚高压、对流层中层的副热带高压与北方的短波槽以及对流层低层的行星尺度季风和切变线。     

珠江三角洲秋季大气边界层温度和风廓线观测研究

根据2004年10月珠江三角洲3个代表性观测点大气边界层观测资料, 分析了珠江三角洲秋季大气边界层温度和风廓线特征。结果表明:珠江三角洲秋季气温递减率较低, 逆温出现频率较高, 强度较弱, 海风使珠江口贴地逆温的出现时间推迟、低空逆温的出现频率增加。珠江三角洲秋季受多种局地环流影响, 边界层内风廓线比较复杂, 晚上城市群与非城市群地区风向有明显差别; 城市群和珠江口多次分别观测到城市热岛环流和海风环流。     

杭州L波段和59-701高空探测系统资料对比分析

为比较L波段高空探测系统和59-701高空探测系统的资料异同,采用平均差、均方差比较的方法分析了杭州站平行观测一个月资料的温压湿资料,比较其异同及产生原因,为更好利用高空探测资料、改进L波段高空探测系统提供参考。通过比较发现:L波段高空探测系统比59-701高空探测系统所测的温度、高度资料更稳定、离散率更小,对提高预报准确率有利。两套系统的温度差值在70 hPa层出现明显拐点,其原因有待进一步研究。     

Whose carbon is burnable? Equity considerations in the allocation of a “right to extract”

Carbon emissions—and hence fossil fuel combustion—must decline rapidly if warming is to be held below 1.5 or 2 °C. Yet fossil fuels are so deeply entrenched in the broader economy that a rapid transition poses the challenge of significant transitional disruption. Fossil fuels must be phased out even as access to energy services for basic needs and for economic development expands, particularly in developing countries. Nations, communities, and workers that are economically dependent on fossil fuel extraction will need to find a new foundation for livelihoods and revenue. These challenges are surmountable. In principle, societies could undertake a decarbonization transition in which they anticipate the transitional disruption, and cooperate and contribute fairly to minimize and alleviate it. Indeed, if societies do not work to avoid that disruption, a decarbonization transition may not be possible at all. Too many people may conclude they will suffer undue hardship, and thus undermine the political consensus required to undertake an ambitious transition. The principles and framework laid out here are offered as a contribution to understanding the nature of the potential impacts of a transition, principles for equitably sharing the costs of avoiding them, and guidance for prioritizing which fossil resources can still be extracted.