Current-driven Alfvén waves in dusty magnetospheric plasmas

It is shown that the sheared flow of electrons and ions in the presence of heavy stationary dust gives rise to unstable Alfvén waves. The coupling of newly studied low frequency electrostatic current-driven mode with the electromagnetic Alfvén and drift waves is investigated. The instability conditions and the growth rates of both inertial and kinetic Alfvén waves are estimated. The theoretical model is applied to the night side boundary regions of Jupiter’s magnetosphere which contain positive dust. The growth rates increase with increase in sheared flow speed. In the nonlinear regime, both inertial and kinetic Alfvén waves form dipolar vortices whose speed and amplitude depend upon the magnitude of the zero-order current.     

Acoustic and petrophysical properties of mechanically compacted overconsolidated sands: Part 2 – Rock physics modelling and applications

Part one of this paper reported results from experimental compaction measurements of unconsolidated natural sand samples with different mineralogical compositions and textures. The experimental setup was designed with several cycles of stress loading and unloading applied to the samples. The setup was aimed to simulate a stress condition where sediments underwent episodes of compaction, uplift and erosion. P-wave and S-wave velocities and corresponding petrophysical (porosity and density) properties were reported. In this second part of the paper, rock physics modelling utilizing existing rock physics models to evaluate the model validity for measured data from part one were presented. The results show that a friable sand model, which was established for normally compacted sediments is also capable of describing overconsolidated sediments. The velocity–porosity data plotted along the friable sand lines not only describe sorting deterioration, as has been traditionally explained by other studies, but also variations in pre-consolidation stress or degree of stress release. The deviation of the overconsolidated sands away from the normal compaction trend on the V_P/V_S and acoustic impedance space shows that various stress paths can be predicted on this domain when utilizing rock physics templates. Fluid saturation sensitivity is found to be lower in overconsolidated sands compared to normally consolidated sands. The sensitivity decreases with increasing pre-consolidation stress. This means detectability for four-dimensional fluid saturation changes can be affected if sediments were pre-stressed and unloaded. Well log data from the Barents Sea show similar patterns to the experimental sand data. The findings allow the development of better rock physics diagnostics of unloaded sediments, and the understanding of expected 4D seismic response during time-lapse seismic monitoring of uplifted basins. The studied outcomes also reveal an insight into the friable sand model that its diagnostic value is not only for describing sorting microtextures, but also pre-consolidation stress history. The outcome extends the model application for pre-consolidation stress estimation, for any unconsolidated sands experiencing similar unloading stress conditions to this study.     

People and community as constituent parts of hazards: the significance of societal dimensions in hazards analysis

Nature-triggered hazards and disasters have traditionally been treated only from the lens of geophysical and biophysical processes, implying that the root cause of large-scale death and destruction lies in the natural domain rather than in a coupled human–environment system. Conceptually, the physical domain has been seen as discrete and separate from human entities, and solutions were sought in the technological intervention and control of the physical environment—solutions that often ended up being less effective than hoped for and sometimes even counter productive. At all levels, institutions have directed and redirected most of their financial and logistical resources into the search for scientific and engineering solutions without allocating due attention and resources towards the assessment of effects and effectiveness of the applications of such technological outcomes. However, over the last two decades, forceful criticisms of the ‘dominant’ technocratic approach to hazards analysis have appeared in the literature and consequently there has not only been a shift in thinking of causation of disaster loss in terms of human vulnerability, but also newer questions have arisen regarding distinguishing between the ‘physical exposure’ of people to threats and societal vulnerability, and linking them with propensity to hazards loss. Though the vulnerability/resilience paradigm has largely replaced the hazards paradigm within the social sciences and much of the professional emergency and disaster management communities, this shift of thinking has not progressed to much of the physical science community, decision-makers and the public, who have not yet accepted the idea that understanding and using human and societal dimensions is equally or more important than trying to deal and control nature through the use of technology. This special issue is intended to further the idea that the aspects of community and peoples’ power to mitigate, to improve coping mechanisms, to respond effectively, and recover with vigor against the environmental extremes are of paramount conceptual and policy importance.     

Atmospheric Hazards Preparedness in Bangladesh: A Study of Warning,Adjustments and Recovery from the April 1991 Cyclone

In probabilistic terms, Bangladesh is prone, to at least one major 'tropical cyclone' every year. This situation is primarily due to the geographical location of Bangladesh in tropical Asia, and to its concave coastline and shallow continental shelf. The devastating impact of such cyclones on humans stems from a combination of intense human occupation of the area, predominance of traditional sociocultural values and religion, the precarious socioeconomic conditions of the majority of the coastal inhabitants, and the lack of a coordinated institutional disaster planning and management strategy. Bangladesh has experienced several catastrophic environmental disasters during the last decade; among these events, the 1991 April cyclone was the most catastrophic in terms of both physical and human dimensions.An initial study was carried out in the coastal regions of Bangladesh less than two weeks after they were hit by the severe cyclone of 29 April 1991. This research examined the process through which warning of the impending disastrous cyclone was received by the local communities and disseminated throughout the coastal regions of Bangladesh. It was found that the identification of the threatening condition due to atmospheric disturbance, the monitoring of the hazard event, and the dissemination of the cyclone warning were each very successful. The present study followed up on the initial research by surveying 267 respondents with an elaborate survey instrument, focusing on the most crucial academic and planning issues identified in the 1991 study. In particular, the nature and characteristics of the cyclone preparedness of the coastal inhabitants were assessed by the study; other factors considered included rural-urban variations, mainland-island differences, the nature and role of previous knowledge, and the disaster experience.The survey results show the variety of indigenous adjustment mechanisms that help to rehabilitate the survivors; also visible are the profound roles played by the social inequality variables and the magnitude of physical vulnerability in influencing the disaster loss and recovery process. The study recommends that hazard mitigation policies should be integrated with national economic development plans and programs. Specifically, it is suggested that the cyclone warning system should incorporate the human response to warnings as its constituent part, and in this way accommodating human dimensions in its operational design.     

Diagnosis of satellite-derived outgoing long wave radiation in relation to rainfall in India

Summary The implications of the hydrostatic assumption for an anelastic two-dimensional numerical model of a gravity current intruding into a neutrally stratified environment are studied. Particular interest is focused on situations where the gravity current encounters an orographic barrier. Considerable discrepancies between hydrostatic and nonhydrostatic calculations are found in the head region for high Froude numbers, when the resolution is high enough to resolve the head of the current. However, the propagation speed and the depth of the feeder flow are well represented in the hydrostatic model.With 15 Figures     

Study on groundwater recharge potentiality of Barind Tract,Rajshahi District,Bangladesh using GIS and Remote Sensing technique

The groundwater recharge potentiality in Barind Tract in Rajshahi district, Northwest Bangladesh was studied based on Geographical Information System (GIS) and Remote Sensing technique. In this connection satellite images (Landsat 7 ETM and SPOT) and aerial photos were subjected to several treatment processes using softwares like ERDAS Imagine and ESRI’s Arc View. Thus various thematic maps have been prepared for drainage density, lineaments, lithology and land cover/use that allowed deciding their interactive effect. In the present study, the degree of effect was determined for each factor to assess the total groundwater recharge potentiality for two categories (moderate to low). The resultant map shows that 85% of the area has low, and rest has moderate groundwater recharge potentiality. Finally only 8.6% of the total average annual precipitated water (1685mm) percolates into subsurface and ultimately contributes to recharge the groundwater.     

Ion acoustic drift solitons and shocks with κ-distributed electrons

The impact of superthermal particles on nonlinear drift solitary and shock like structures are presented in an inhomogeneous electron-ion plasma with κ-distributed electrons. It is shown that the amplitude of the drift solitons and shocks is modified significantly in the presence of superthermal particles. The condition for the existence of drift solitons is found modified in the presence of higher energy particles. Furthermore, Kadomtsev–Petviashvili (KP) equation is also derived for the present plasma model.     

Parameter uncertainty of the AWBM model when applied to an ungauged catchment

In this study, a quantitative assessment of uncertainty was made in connection with the calibration of Australian Water Balance Model (AWBM) for both gauged and ungauged catchment cases. For the gauged catchment, five different rainfall data sets, 23 different calibration data lengths and eight different optimization techniques were adopted. For the ungauged catchment case, the optimum parameter sets obtained from the nearest gauged catchment were transposed to the ungauged catchments, and two regional prediction equations were used to estimate runoff. Uncertainties were ascertained by comparing the observed and modelled runoffs by the AWBM on the basis of different combinations of methods, model parameters and input data. The main finding from this study was that the uncertainties in the AWBM modelling outputs could vary from ?1.3% to 70% owing to different input rainfall data, ?5.7% to 11% owing to different calibration data lengths and ?6% to 0.2% owing to different optimization techniques adopted in the calibration of the AWBM. The performance of the AWBM model was found to be dominated mainly by the selection of appropriate rainfall data followed by the selection of an appropriate calibration data length and optimization algorithm. Use of relatively short data length (e.g. 3 to 6 years) in the calibration was found to generate relatively poor results. Effects of different optimization techniques on the calibration were found to be minimal. The uncertainties reported here in relation to the calibration and runoff estimation by the AWBM model are relevant to the selected study catchments, which are likely to differ for other catchments. The methodology presented in this paper can be applied to other catchments in Australia and other countries using AWBM and similar rainfall–runoff models. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Estimation of catchment yield and associated uncertainties due to climate change in a mountainous catchment in Australia

This paper examines the impacts of climate change on future water yield with associated uncertainties in a mountainous catchment in Australia using a multi‐model approach based on four global climate models (GCMs), 200 realisations (50 realisations from each GCM) of downscaled rainfalls, 2 hydrological models and 6 sets of model parameters. The ensemble projections by the GCMs showed that the mean annual rainfall is likely to reduce in the future decades by 2–5% in comparison with the current climate (1987–2012). The results of ensemble runoff projections indicated that the mean annual runoff would reduce in future decades by 35%. However, considerable uncertainty in the runoff estimates was found as the ensemble results project changes of the 5^th (dry scenario) and 95^th (wet scenario) percentiles by ?73% to +27%, ?73% to +12%, ?77% to +21% and ?80% to +24% in the decades of 2021–2030, 2031–2040, 2061–2070 and 2071–2080, respectively. Results of uncertainty estimation demonstrated that the choice of GCMs dominates overall uncertainty. Realisation uncertainty (arising from repetitive simulations for a given time step during downscaling of the GCM data to catchment scale) of the downscaled rainfall data was also found to be remarkably high. Uncertainty linked to the choice of hydrological models was found to be quite small in comparison with the GCM and realisation uncertainty. The hydrological model parameter uncertainty was found to be lowest among the sources of uncertainties considered in this study. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.