利用CAP 方法快速计算云南地区中小地震震源机制解

地震的震源机制解是反应区域应力场的重要参数,充分利用数量众多的中小地震将有助于获得更高精度的区域应力场分布。本文以滇西地震预报实验场下关虚拟测震台网为例,介绍了利用虚拟台网产出数据,采用CAP 方法计算中小地震震源机制解的流程,并将该方法应用于计算云南地区2013 年2 月～ 2014 年2 月间MS≥3. 0 的64 次中小地震震源机制解。结果显示:①本文给出的方法为一种半自动处理方法,该方法可以在地震速报结果之后45 分钟之内给出震源机制解,分析认为影响震源机制解快速产出的主要因素是格林函数库的建立和编程实现标注P 波到时的全自动化;②云南地区中小地震震源机制解以走滑为主,但在香格里拉和洱源地区有少量正断层地震存在,位于研究区域内中小地震P 轴主应力方向在川滇菱形块体南部以北北西-南南东为主,而在印支板块则主要以北北东-南南西为主。     

不同云天条件下水汽含量特征及其变化分析

大气中水汽含量的探测，是人工影响天气的基础条件之一，我们利用2002年6月18日到28日期问，安徽屯溪站的GPS水汽监测数据分析了该站出现不同云天条件下的水汽含量的特征，提出了适合人工影响天气作业的云天条件。以及分析该时段内水汽含量时间变化序列，发现发生降水前，水汽含量会有一个跃变，一般会达到60mm以上，这是实施人工增雨作业的最佳时问。     

用16S rRNA基因的内切酶图谱快速鉴别几种对虾病原菌

坎普氏弧菌是青岛海洋大学生物系微生物实验室于１９８９－１９９０年自对虾养殖场中国对虾红腿病心脏及血淋巴中分离并鉴定的菌株，副溶血菌和溶藻胶弧菌两菌株于１９９４年９月得自中国科学院微生物研究所，为建立快速、准确的中国对虾病原菌的诊断技术，根据几种细菌的１６ＳｒＲＮＡ基因的序列，设计并合成该基因的多聚酶反应的引物ＰＬ１和ＰＬ２。并用该对引物分别从坎普氏弧菌、副溶血弧菌和溶藻胶弧菌的ＤＮＡ要品中扩增出分     

Evaluating Groundwater Interbasin Flow Using Multiple Models and Multiple Types of Data

The groundwater interbasin flow, Q_y, from the north of Yucca Flat into Yucca Flat simulated using the Death Valley Regional Flow System (DVRFS) model greatly exceeds assessments obtained using other approaches. This study aimed to understand the reasons for the overestimation and to examine whether the Q_y estimate can be reduced. The two problems were tackled from the angle of model uncertainty by considering six models revised from the DVRFS model with different recharge components and hydrogeological frameworks. The two problems were also tackled from the angle of parametric uncertainty for each model by first conducting Morris sensitivity analysis to identify important parameters and then conducting Monte Carlo simulations for the important parameters. The uncertainty analysis is general and suitable for tackling similar problems; the Morris sensitivity analysis has been utilized to date in only a limited number of regional groundwater modeling. The simulated Q_y values were evaluated by using three kinds of calibration data (i.e., hydraulic head observations, discharge estimates, and constant‐head boundary flow estimates). The evaluation results indicate that, within the current DVRFS modeling framework, the Q_y estimate can only be reduced to about half of the original estimate without severely deteriorating the goodness‐of‐fit to the calibration data. The evaluation results also indicate that it is necessary to develop a new hydrogeological framework to produce new flow patterns in the DVRFS model. The issues of hydrogeology and boundary flow are being addressed in a new version of the DVRFS model planned for release by the U.S. Geological Survey.     

地震地质灾害空间预警评估定量化方法研究初探

建立“发育度”、“潜势度”、“危险度”、“危害度”等概念来描述地震地质灾害各影响因子、要素及可能的灾害危害程度,进而建立构成地震地质灾害层次分析的概念体系及地震地质灾害空间预警评估模型,将定性评估转化为定量评估进行初步研究。     

东北平原杜蒙钻孔的磁性地层学和磁化率对松嫩古湖演化的指示

湖相沉积是过去气候环境变化研究的重要地质记录.东北平原在早-中更新世时期曾发育一个巨型湖泊(松嫩古湖), 对这一古湖的演化历史和机制仍需多钻孔的进一步研究.本研究针对东北平原杜蒙(HL)钻孔沉积物开展了²⁶Al/¹⁰Be同位素年代学、古地磁年代学、磁化率地层学和岩石磁学研究, 结果表明: (1)令字组和林甸组湖相沉积的界线为约900 ka; (2)林甸组的磁化率明显高于令字组, 令字组的高矫顽力弱磁性矿物贡献相对较大; (3)林甸组磁化率的升高可能与湖平面降低、水动力增强、入湖的强磁性矿物增多或者氧化还原条件改变, 从而生成了强磁性铁的硫化物有关; (4)约900 ka前后, 松嫩古湖萎缩, 可能与中更新世气候转型期间大西洋深层翻转流(Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, 简称AMOC)减弱致使热带辐合带(Intertropical Convergence Zone, 简称ITCZ)南移, 以及海平面下降造成更多陆地暴露地表, 水汽输送距离增加, 进而共同导致东亚夏季风降水减少有关.

     

Clogging of saturated porous media by silt‐sized suspended solids under varying physical conditions during managed aquifer recharge

Managed aquifer recharge is an effective method for utilizing excess flood flows, but clogging of porous media is a limiting factor in the implementation of this water storage technique. In recent years, much research on the physical clogging of porous media during artificial recharge has been conducted. However, the understanding of clogging due to silt‐sized suspended solids (SS) is still inadequate, especially under varying physical conditions. Here, we subjected sand columns to controlled rates of flow and SS suspensions to investigate the influence of media size, SS size, SS concentration, and flow velocity on the clogging of porous media by silt‐sized SS. The results show that the diameter ratio of SS particles to sand grains is the dominant factor influencing the position of physical clogging. As pore velocity increased, the mobility of silt‐sized SS was enhanced and retention in the porous media decreased noticeably. The spatial retention profiles in the porous media were found to vary greatly at different flow velocities. The SS concentration of the infiltrating suspension also dramatically influenced the mobility and deposition of silt‐sized SS particles, such that high concentrations accelerated the clogging process. As the different physical factors changed, the breakthrough curves and retention profiles of silt‐sized SS particles changed obviously and the mechanisms of retention differed. On the whole, clogging position is mainly determined by particle size ratio, but clogging rate is dominated by a variety of factors including particle size ratio, SS concentration, and flow velocity.     

包含正定水汽高精度算法的MM5模式的暴雨实例试验

本文首先对非静力中尺度模式ＭＭ５的水汽输送方案作了半理想试验。结果显示,ＭＭ５原有的水汽平 流输送算法在水汽梯度较大的地方产生水汽负值,影响模式的模拟结果和模式的稳定性,对此,本文把一个正定的水汽输送算法Ｐｒａｔｈｅｒ算法引入ＭＭ５,并用实例作了数值试验,检验了模式的模拟能力,结果表明,对ＭＭ５的改进是敏感的有效的,Ｐｒａｔｈｅｒ格式增强了模式暴雨落区,暴雨中心的模拟能力。     

郯庐断裂带江苏段第四纪活动性研究

从前人地表地质、地球化学探测与构造年代学,形变资料等方面入手,结合遥感影像信息,对郯庐断裂带江苏段第四纪活动性进行了系统分析;在总结前人研究成果基础上,对其活动性差异的成因进行了探讨。结果表明:郯庐断裂带江苏段在第四纪新构造运动时期总体活动性不强,表现为右旋走滑性质。断裂以宿迁为界具有明显的分段活动差异性——北段较强,南段较弱;在北华北块体内部,郯庐断裂带通过其活动性的分段差异调节次一级块体的不同方向位移;枣庄—宿迁断裂对郯庐断裂带的切割及其左旋走滑调节作用是郯庐断裂带江苏段活动差异性的主要成因。     

Disaster Risk Science Development and Disaster Risk Reduction Using Science and Technology

Based on a series of international conferences for establishing HFA2 framework, this paper analyzed key issues of frontier of disaster risk science, integrated disaster prevention and mitigation strategies and integrated disaster risk governance. The future direction of disaster risk science was comprehensively discussed according to the widely discussed Post 2015 Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA2). It was proposed to deepen the cognition of the complexity of disaster system in terms of recognizing the complexity of disaster system from the interaction among various elements of the system, recognizing the complexity of climate change risk from the regional characteristics and formation mechanism of the global climate change and recognizing the complexity of the catastrophe risk from the regional development levels and patterns. Furthermore, it was suggested to make integrated disaster risk reduction strategies and countermeasures from the perspective of the complexity of the disaster system, including the establishment of regional integrated disaster risk governance framework to face climate change, the establishment of integrated disaster risk governance system in multi-spatial scale, the establishment of disaster risk governance financial system integrating the insurance, bonds and lottery, the establishment of consilience mode in integrated risk governance considering multi-stakeholder and the establishment of modeling and simulation platform integrated disaster risk information services and disaster risk reduction strategies. Finally, it was pointed out that the assessment of disaster risk levels for different regions in multi spatial scale can provide robust scientific support for integrated disaster risk governance of the world and regions, industries and enterprises so as to improve response to global change and guarantee a global and regional sustainable development.