天津市城市热岛效应的综合性研究

近几年,我们采用较先进的仪器设备,进行了天津市城市热岛效应的综合性探测和红外线航空遥感测量。并对地面和低空城市热岛强度、厚度和结构进行了分析。结果表明,白天低空热岛强度比地面热岛强度强。并有冷湖现象;在城市内,热岛是由一些小热岛群组成;我们还用能量平衡模式对城市热岛的结构进行了研究。     

鄂西地区上泥盆统碳质粉砂岩及黄铁矿地球化学特征

晚泥盆世弗拉期—法门期（F-F）之交生物大灭绝事件一直是被学者关注的热点,事件的起因与机制并没有定论。前人对华南地区事件期沉积序列、地层同位素、底栖、微体生物和维管植物的类型及演化进行了研究。但对事件起始期下Kellwasser事件研究较为薄弱,对其古气候、古环境认识尚不足。针对这些问题,本文对鄂西地区上泥盆统黄家磴组碳质粉砂岩与沉积黄铁矿微量元素与硫同位素进行测试分析,探讨了下Kellwasser事件期气候与环境。研究获得下列认识：1）晚泥盆世弗拉期鄂西地区为淡水环境,气候潮湿,水温约为31 ℃;2）受陆源营养物质供给的影响,海洋中生物生产力较高,大量沉积有机质分解,厌氧带向下扩张,造成水体氧化—还原带分层;3）大气氧含量介于17.23%~21.18%,黄铁矿δ³⁴S介于-12.01‰~-4.67‰,均未见明显波动;4）下Kellwasser事件未表现出明显的火山喷发、海水缺氧与构造作用成因的特征。研究成果为理解F-F生物大灭绝事件起因提供了参考,也丰富了中-上扬子地区晚泥盆世古气候、古环境认识。

     

Atmospheric eddy anomalies associated with the wintertime North Pacific subtropical front strength and their influences on the seasonal-mean atmosphere

This study investigates transient eddy activity anomalies in the mid-latitude upper troposphere associated with intensity variability of the wintertime North Pacific subtropical front. Our results show that the meridional gradient of air temperature and baroclinic instability in the mid-latitude atmosphere become stronger as the subtropical front intensifies, and the mid-latitude westerly jet accelerates with barotropic structure. We further divide the mid-latitude atmospheric eddy activities into high-(2–7 days) and low-frequency(10–90 days) eddy activities according to their life periods. We find that, when the oceanic subtropical front intensifies, the high-frequency atmospheric eddy activity in the mid-latitudes strengthens while the low-frequency eddy activity weakens. The stronger high-frequency eddy activity tends to moderate the air temperature gradient and baroclinicity in the mid-latitudes. High-frequency eddy anomalies accelerate the westerly jet on the northern side and downstream of the westerly jet, and enhance the jet with equivalent barotropic structure. In contrast, the weaker low-frequency eddy activity has a negative contribution to zonal wind speed tendency and attenuates the zonal homogenization of the jet. The anomalous thermodynamic forcing of the low-frequency eddy activity helps maintain the meridional gradient of air temperature in the mid-troposphere.     

红鳍东方鲀(Takifugu rubrips)病原杀对虾弧菌的主要生物学特性研究

采用表观分类学及分子生物学方法,对从发病的养殖红鳍东方()中分离的细菌进行了主要生物学特性研究.主要包括形态特征、理化特性等较系统的表观分类学指征鉴定;同时对代表菌株进行了16S rRNA基因的分子鉴定,测定了16S rRNA基因序列、分析了相关细菌相应序列的同源性、构建了系统发生树;结果表明,分离菌为弧茵属(Vibrio Pacini 1954)的杀对虾弧菌(Vibrio penaeicidasp.nov.Ishimaru et al 1995).代表菌株(Hc051105-6株)16s rRNA基因序列长度(不包括引物结合区)为1443bp(GenBank登录号:EU073023),代表菌株(HC051105-8株)16S rRNA基因序列长度(不包括 引物结合区)为1450bp(GenBank登录号:Eu073024).择代表菌株做对健康红鳍东方鲀的人工感染试验,认为分离鉴定的杀对虾弧菌在被检红鳍东方鱼电病例具有一定的病原学意义.药敏试验结果显示,对供试37种抗菌药物中,在一些药物中存在耐药性的菌株间差异.     

闽西武夷山建宁—泰宁地区白垩纪火山-沉积序列:对华南东部晚中生代构造演化的制约

闽西武夷山建宁—泰宁地区发育2套白垩纪火山-沉积序列,构成2个火山-沉积旋回,每套序列由下部火山岩和上部沉积岩地层组成.锆石U-Pb年代学和地球化学分析显示,早期中酸性火山岩喷发时代为早白垩世141～135 Ma,具有陆缘火山弧的地球化学亲缘性,并富集Hf同位素(-20.2～1.9);而晚期火山岩活动集中在早、晚白垩世...     

亚洲夏季风系统成员与西太平洋副高的相关特征分析

利用500hPa月平均高度距平场派生出涡度变化、经向风切变、纬向风切变等变量场。从1958～2001年6月500hPa月平均高度距平场及其派生变量场中选取预报因子,并将各个场中的因子分别作EOF分解,得到浓缩了初选因子变量大部分信息的综合预报因子,用以建立同月的广西月降水量的BP神经网络预报模型。进而利用2002～2005年月动力延伸集合预报产品及其派生变量,对广西6月降水量作BP神经网络降尺度释用预报。作为对比试验,以相同的预报量,从1957～2000年5～12月及1958～2001年1～4月500hPa月平均高度距平场中选取预报因子,并作相同处理,建立前期综合因子的广西6月降水量BP神经网络预报模型。独立样本试验结果表明,利用同期综合因子建立的BP神经网络降尺度预报模型的拟合精度优于利用前期综合因子建立的预报模型,但预报效果依赖于月动力延伸集合预报产品。     

Observations and modelling of the travel time delay and leading negative phase of the 16 September 2015 Illapel,Chile tsunami

The systematic discrepancies in both tsunami arrival time and leading negative phase (LNP) were identified for the recent transoceanic tsunami on 16 September 2015 in Illapel, Chile by examining the wave characteristics from the tsunami records at 21 Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunami (DART) sites and 29 coastal tide gauge stations. The results revealed systematic travel time delay of as much as 22 min (approximately 1.7％ of the total travel time) relative to the simulated long waves from the 2015 Chilean tsunami. The delay discrepancy was found to increase with travel time. It was difficult to identify the LNP from the near-shore observation system due to the strong background noise, but the initial negative phase feature became more obvious as the tsunami propagated away from the source area in the deep ocean. We determined that the LNP for the Chilean tsunami had an average duration of 33 min, which was close to the dominant period of the tsunami source. Most of the amplitude ratios to the first elevation phase were approximately 40％, with the largest equivalent to the first positive phase amplitude. We performed numerical analyses by applying the corrected long wave model, which accounted for the effects of seawater density stratification due to compressibility, self-attraction and loading (SAL) of the earth, and wave dispersion compared with observed tsunami waveforms. We attempted to accurately calculate the arrival time and LNP, and to understand how much of a role the physical mechanism played in the discrepancies for the moderate transoceanic tsunami event. The mainly focus of the study is to quantitatively evaluate the contribution of each secondary physical effect to the systematic discrepancies using the corrected shallow water model. Taking all of these effects into consideration, our results demonstrated good agreement between the observed and simulated waveforms. We can conclude that the corrected shallow water model can reduce the tsunami propagation speed and reproduce the LNP, which is observed for tsunamis that have propagated over long distances frequently. The travel time delay between the observed and corrected simulated waveforms is reduced to <8 min and the amplitude discrepancy between them was also markedly diminished. The incorporated effects amounted to approximately 78％ of the travel time delay correction, with seawater density stratification, SAL, and Boussinesq dispersion contributing approximately 39％, 21％, and 18％, respectively. The simulated results showed that the elastic loading and Boussinesq dispersion not only affected travel time but also changed the simulated waveforms for this event. In contrast, the seawater stratification only reduced the tsunami speed, whereas the earth's elasticity loading was responsible for LNP due to the depression of the seafloor surrounding additional tsunami loading at far-field stations. This study revealed that the traditional shallow water model has inherent defects in estimating tsunami arrival, and the leading negative phase of a tsunami is a typical recognizable feature of a moderately strong transoceanic tsunami. These results also support previous theory and can help to explain the observed discrepancies.     

基于加权贝叶斯网络的海洋灾害风险评估

全球气候变化背景下,海洋灾害的群发性、难以预见性和灾害链效应日显突出,造成的损失逐年上升,开展海洋灾害的风险评估工作至关重要。针对海洋灾害评估中的不确定问题,本文首先基于风险理论剖析了海洋灾害风险的不确定性特征,构建了灾害评估指标体系;然后基于贝叶斯网络模型,提出针对不确定性灾害评估的风险贝叶斯网络,进而基于主客观定权,构建了加权贝叶斯网络评估模型;最后对我国沿海地区海洋灾害开展评估研究。实验表明,该评估模型有效实现海洋灾害的风险评估,具有实际可操作性。     

强震动记录H/V谱比法计算处理的若干关键环节

强震动记录H/V谱比法自提出以来,已广泛应用于地震工程各研究领域中。但对数据处理的2个关键环节——Taper预处理及傅氏谱平滑未有详细研究。因此,本文针对强震动记录H/V谱比法计算涉及的重要数据处理过程,对四川地区19个强震动台站在汶川地震余震中获取的642组强震动记录开展研究。研究实例表明:S波H/V谱比振幅在周期 < 1s时高于全时程,论证计算H/V谱比时截取S波窗口的必要性;S波窗口的截断会引起傅里叶振幅谱的边瓣效应,若不加以处理,将显著影响低频部分H/V谱比结果,Taper预处理对于消除这种截断误差具有良好效果;在兼顾平滑效果及卓越周期识别准确度的基础上,通过不同带宽的Parzen窗试算,认为0.5Hz带宽宜用于傅里叶H/V谱比曲线平滑。     

2009年11月北京极端低温和强降水事件分析

2009年10月底到11月底,包括北京在内的华北地区连续出现2次较强冷空气过程,造成大范围的低温、雨雪天气。利用北京地区11个气象站近50年逐日气温、降水资料,对全市历年11月低温雨雪事件的演变特征进行了分析。结果表明,2009年11月全市月平均气温、月平均最低气温均突破了50年的最低记录,月平均最高气温位列1981年11月之后,接近历史极值;2009年11月降雪量也位列有记录以来第一位,冰冻日数历史排位第三;从气温和降水极端事件发生的频次来看,2009年11月日平均气温、日最高气温和日最低气温通过5%分位值标准的极端低温事件频次都明显偏多,在50年中居于第2位,降水量通过95%分位值标准的极端强事件频次在50年中居于第四位。2009年11月的严重低温雨雪事件出现在区域气温总体变暖、低温事件频率总体下降的气候趋势背景下,在一定程度上放大了负面影响。亚洲中高纬地区500hPa高度场经向度异常加大、冷暖气流交换活跃,是造成2009年11月极端低温和大雪的直接环流因子。