A review of modern treeline migration,the factors controlling it and the implications for carbon storage

Numerous studies have reported that treelines are moving to higher elevations and higher latitudes.Most treelines are temperature limited and warmer climate expands the area in which trees are capable of growing.Hence,climate change has been assumed to be the main driver behind this treeline movement.The latest review of treeline studies was published in 2009 by Harsch et al.Since then,a plethora of papers have been published studying local treeline migration.Here we bring together this knowledge through a review of 142 treeline related publications,including 477 study locations.We summarize the information known about factors limiting tree-growth at and near treelines.Treeline migration is not only dependent on favorable growing conditions but also requires seedling establishment and survival above the current treeline.These conditions appear to have become favorable at many locations,particularly so in recent years.The review revealed that at 66%of these treeline sites forest cover had increased in elevational or latitudinal extent.The physical form of treelines influences how likely they are to migrate and can be used as an indicator when predicting future treeline movements.Our analysis also revealed that while a greater percentage of elevational treelines are moving,the latitudinal treelines are capable of moving at greater horizontal speed.This can potentially have substantial impacts on ecosystem carbon storage.To conclude the review,we present the three main hypotheses as to whether ecosystem carbon budgets will be reduced,increased or remain the same due to treeline migration.While the answer still remains under debate,we believe that all three hypotheses are likely to apply depending on the encroached ecosystem.Concerningly,evidence is emerging on how treeline migration may turn tundra landscapes from net sinks to net sources of carbon dioxide in the future.     

Environmental co-operation in the Baltic Sea region: A Lithuanian perspective

International co-operation is vital if the ecological crisis in the Baltic Sea is to be reversed. Organisations such as the Baltic Co-operation Council and HELCOM and agreements such as the Helsinki Convention, the Baltic Sea Declaration, and the Gdansk Convention, already exist to facilitate co-operation. Successful implementation of these conventions requires commitment at the national level. Lithuania's commitment is hampered by internal economic, and political problems which must be surmounted if the country is to reduce its impact on the Baltic Sea.Part of the following article is published in Baltic Studies in Australia II: AABS; Melbourne, 1993 — the proceedings from the 7th bi-annual Conference of the Association for the Advancement of Baltic Studies (Australasian Section) held in Melbourne, September, 1993.     

An overview of Fiji's fisheries development

Development and societal changes in the twentieth century have transformed the nature of fishing in Fiji. This paper attempts to consolidate a large amount of decentralized work on the development of Fijian fisheries to address the long-term sustainability and economic viability of Fiji's marine resources. Taking a broad perspective, this paper provides an overview that connects the historic context of Fiji's fisheries development with economic policy to address overfishing. The analysis highlights the need for an overarching management approach that encompasses the integration of Fiji's offshore and inshore fisheries to ensure the achievement of long-term economic benefits.     

Evidence and Implications of Recent Climate Change in Northern Alaska and Other Arctic Regions

The Arctic climate is changing. Permafrost is warming, hydrological processes are changing and biological and social systems are also evolving in response to these changing conditions. Knowing how the structure and function of arctic terrestrial ecosystems are responding to recent and persistent climate change is paramount to understanding the future state of the Earth system and how humans will need to adapt. Our holistic review presents a broad array of evidence that illustrates convincingly; the Arctic is undergoing a system-wide response to an altered climatic state. New extreme and seasonal surface climatic conditions are being experienced, a range of biophysical states and processes influenced by the threshold and phase change of freezing point are being altered, hydrological and biogeochemical cycles are shifting, and more regularly human sub-systems are being affected. Importantly, the patterns, magnitude and mechanisms of change have sometimes been unpredictable or difficult to isolate due to compounding factors. In almost every discipline represented, we show how the biocomplexity of the Arctic system has highlighted and challenged a paucity of integrated scientific knowledge, the lack of sustained observational and experimental time series, and the technical and logistic constraints of researching the Arctic environment. This study supports ongoing efforts to strengthen the interdisciplinarity of arctic system science and improve the coupling of large scale experimental manipulation with sustained time series observations by incorporating and integrating novel technologies, remote sensing and modeling.     

Evaluation of hydrologic impact of an irrigation curtailment program using Landsat satellite data

Upper Klamath Lake (UKL) is the source of the Klamath River that flows through southern Oregon and northern California. The UKL Basin provides water for 81,000+ ha (200,000+ acres) of irrigation on the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation Klamath Project located downstream of the UKL Basin. Irrigated agriculture also occurs along the tributaries to UKL. During 2013–2016, water rights calls resulted in various levels of curtailment of irrigation diversions from the tributaries to UKL. However, information on the extent of curtailment, how much irrigation water was saved, and its impact on the UKL is unknown. In this study, we combined Landsat-based actual evapotranspiration (ETa) data obtained from the Operational Simplified Surface Energy Balance model with gridded precipitation and U.S. Geological Survey station discharge data to evaluate the hydrologic impact of the curtailment program. Analysis was performed for 2004, 2006, 2008–2010 (base years), and 2013–2016 (target years) over irrigated areas above UKL. Our results indicate that the savings from the curtailment program over the June to September time period were highest during 2013 and declined in each of the following years. The total on-field water savings was approximately 60 hm³ in 2013 and 2014, 44 hm³ in 2015, and 32 hm³ in 2016 (1 hm3 = 10,000 m³ or 810.7 ac-ft). The instream water flow changes or extra water available were 92, 68, 45, and 26 hm³, respectively, for 2013, 2014, 2015, and 2016. Highest water savings came from pasture and wetlands. Alfalfa showed the most decline in water use among grain crops. The resulting extra water available from the curtailment contributed to a maximum of 19% of the lake inflows and 50% of the lake volume. The Landsat-based ETa and other remote sensing datasets used in this study can be used to monitor crop water use at the irrigation district scale and to quantify water savings as a result of land-water management changes.     

Very short-term spatio-temporal wind power prediction using a censored Gaussian field

Wind power is a renewable energy resource, that has relatively cheap installation costs and it is highly possible that will become the main energy resource in the near future. Wind power needs to be integrated efficiently into electricity grids, and to optimize the power dispatch, techniques to predict the level of wind power and the associated variability are critical. Ideally, one would like to obtain reliable probability density forecasts for the wind power distributions. We aim at contributing to the literature of wind power prediction by developing and analysing a spatio-temporal methodology for wind power production, that is tested on wind power data from Denmark. We use anisotropic spatio-temporal correlation models to account for the propagation of weather fronts, and a transformed latent Gaussian field model to accommodate the probability masses that occur in wind power distribution due to chains of zeros. We apply the model to generate multi-step ahead probability predictions for wind power generated at both locations where wind farms already exist but also to nearby locations.