Variability of the Bering Sea circulation in the period 1992–2010

Sea surface height anomalies observed by satellites in 1992–2010 are combined with monthly climatologies of temperature and salinity to estimate circulation in the southern Bering Sea. The estimated surface and deep currents are consistent with independent velocity observations by surface drifters and Argo floats parked at 1,000?m. Analysis reveals 1–3-Sv interannual transport variations of the major currents with typical intra-annual variability of 3–7?Sv. On the seasonal scale, the Alaskan Stream transport is well correlated with the Kamchatka (0.81), Near Strait (0.53) and the Bering Slope (0.37) currents. Lagged correlations reveal a gradual increase of the time the lags between the transports of the Alaskan Stream, the Bering Slope Current and the Kamchatka Current, supporting the concept that the Bering Sea basin is ventilated by the waters carried by the Alaskan Stream south of the Aleutian Arc and by the flow through the Near Strait. Correlations of the Bering Sea currents with the Bering Strait transport are dominated by the seasonal cycle. On the interannual time scale, significant negative correlations are diagnosed between the Near Strait transport and the Bering Slope and Alaskan Stream currents. Substantial correlations are also diagnosed between the eddy kinetic energy and Pacific Decadal Oscillation.     

Study of the Characteristics of Wave Buoys by Comparison Measurements

A method is proposed for estimating the accuracy of measuring the wave parameters by wave buoys. The results of comparative field tests of the developed Storm and Waverider wave buoys and a string wave probe are given. It is shown that the standard deviation of the error of the Storm buoy does not exceed 0.1 m for a sea state of 5. The research has made it possible to improve the methods for obtaining the spectral and statistical characteristics of sea waves of different intensity.     

Evaluation of formation pore pressure behind the casing using borehole gravity data

Reliable estimates of the fluid pressure in the pore space of rocks are critical for different aspects of petroleum exploration and production including injection operations and scenarios of water flooding. Numerous approaches are available for formation pore pressure evaluation, however, these measurements become a challenge inside a cased borehole, and a list of possible options is short: either the casing is to be perforated, or the production tubing needs to be disconnected to perform the pressure tests. We present a method for through-casing evaluation of formation pore pressure without shutting down production. We suggest equipping an observation well with a borehole gravimeter and acquiring time variations of the vertical component of the gravity field. Changes in gravity occur during gas production and are related to time variations of formation pore pressure. Gravity changes obtained in the observation well are supposed to be inverted for time-dependent formation pore pressure variations beyond the casing. Our results and recommendations are based on numerical modeling of pore pressure spatial distribution during gas field exploitation and relevant changes in borehole gravity. Benchmark models were elaborated in order to consider a dynamic process of pressure changes in time and space under conditions similar to those in the Medvezhye gas field (Russia). Different modeling scenarios are considered for early and late stages of gas field exploitation. The sensitivity analysis was performed to estimate quantitatively a sensitivity of borehole temporal gravity changes to variations in formation pore pressure behind the casing. Based on resolution analysis we justify the possibility to extract the gravity measurements directly related to changes in pore pressure from the total changes in the gravity field due to reservoir exploitation. The impact of pore pressure on the gravity field measured in boreholes during the water flooding is also evaluated, and obtained results are discussed.     

A new view on gold speciation in sulfur-bearing hydrothermal fluids from in situ X-ray absorption spectroscopy and quantum-chemical modeling

Despite the common belief that Au^I complexes with hydrogen sulfide ligands (H₂S/HS⁻) are the major carriers of gold in natural hydrothermal fluids, their identity, structure and stability are still subjects of debate. Here we present the first in situ measurement, using X-ray absorption fine structure (XAFS) spectroscopy, of the stability and structure of aqueous Au^I–S complexes at temperatures and pressures (T–P) typical of natural sulfur-rich ore-forming fluids. The solubility of native gold and the local atomic structure around the dissolved metal in S–NaOH–Na₂SO₄–H₂SO₄ aqueous solutions were characterized at temperatures 200–450 °C and pressures 300–600 bar using an X-ray cell that allows simultaneous measurement of the absolute concentration of the absorbing atom (Au) and its local atomic environment in the fluid phase. Structural and solubility data obtained from XAFS spectra, combined with quantum-chemical calculations of species geometries, show that gold bis(hydrogensulfide) Au(HS)₂⁻ is the dominant Au species in neutral-to-basic solutions (5.5  pH  8.5; H₂O–S–NaOH) over a wide range of sulfur concentrations (0.2 < ΣS < 3.6 mol/kg), in agreement with previous solubility studies. Our results provide the first direct determination of this species structure, in which two sulfur atoms are in a linear geometry around Au^I at an average distance of 2.29 ± 0.01 Å. At acidic conditions (1.5  pH  5.0; H₂O–S–Na₂SO₄–H₂SO₄), the Au atomic environment determined by XAFS is similar to that in neutral solutions. These findings, together with measured high Au solubilities, are inconsistent with the predominance of the gold hydrogensulfide Au(HS)⁰ complex suggested by recent solubility studies. Our spectroscopic data and quantum-chemical calculations imply the formation of species composed of linear S–Au–S moieties, like the neutral [H₂S–Au–SH] complex. This species may account for the elevated Au solubilities in acidic fluids and vapors with H₂S concentrations higher than 0.1–0.2 mol/kg. However, because of the complex sulfur speciation in acidic solutions that involves sulfite, thiosulfate and polysulfide species, the formation of Au^I complexes with these ligands (e.g., AuHS(SO₂)⁰, Au(HS₂O₃)₂⁻, Au(HS_n)₂⁻) cannot be ruled out. The existence of such species may significantly enhance Au transport by high T–P acidic ore-forming fluids and vapors, responsible for the formation of a major part of the gold resources on Earth.     

On the statistical mechanics of distributed seismicity

In order to understand the underlying physics of distributed seismicity better we have considered a 2-D array of slider blocks connected by springs and interacting via static friction with a surface. There is no driving plate in this model. The time evolution of the system is found from numerical simulations in a cellular automata formulation. Energy is conserved and is the single control parameter. The distribution of energies in the springs is found to obey a modified Maxwell-Boltzmann statistics. It is found that the number-size statistics of clusters of unstable sliding blocks is identical to those in percolation clusters in the site-to-site percolation model. There is a well-defined critical point when unstable blocks become connected across the array. It has been previously suggested that distributed seismicity in a seismic zone is the percolation backbone of a 3-D percolation cluster. The fact that low-level seismicity satisfies the Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude relation and is nearly constant in time also suggests that this background seismicity is similar to thermally induced noise.     

Non-linear effects in the packets of internal waves in the ocean

The mechanisms for the generation of mean density and current velocity fields in a medium with a vertical shear, conditioned by the non-linearity of packets of internal waves are analysed. Modulation instability of internal waves is studied allowing for the earth's rotation. A non-linear Schrödinger's equation for the evolution of the envelope has been derived. Also corrections to the mean density and current velocity in the approximation, quadratic by the wave's amplitude, non-oscillating on the wave's time scale have been obtained. The longitudinal modulation conditions have been analysed.Translated by V. Puchkin. UDK 551.466.8.     

Stress transfer in earthquakes, hazard estimation and ensemble forecasting: Inferences from numerical simulations

Observations indicate that earthquake faults occur in topologically complex, multi-scale networks driven by plate tectonic forces. We present realistic numerical simulations, involving data-mining, pattern recognition, theoretical analyses and ensemble forecasting techniques, to understand how the observable space–time earthquake patterns are related to the fundamentally inaccessible and unobservable dynamics. Numerical simulations can also help us to understand how the different scales involved in earthquake physics interact and influence the resulting dynamics. Our simulations indicate that elastic interactions (stress transfer) combined with the nonlinearity in the frictional failure threshold law lead to the self-organization of the statistical dynamics, producing 1) statistical distributions for magnitudes and frequencies of earthquakes that have characteristics similar to those possessed by the Gutenberg–Richter magnitude–frequency distributions observed in nature; and 2) clear examples of stress transfer among fault activity described by stress shadows, in which an earthquake on one group of faults reduces the Coulomb failure stress on other faults, thereby delaying activity on those faults. In this paper, we describe the current state of modeling and simulation efforts for Virtual California, a model for all the major active strike slip faults in California. Noting that the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP) uses statistical distributions to produce earthquake forecast probabilities, we demonstrate that Virtual California provides a powerful tool for testing the applicability and reliability of the WGCEP statistical methods. Furthermore, we show how the simulations can be used to develop statistical earthquake forecasting techniques that are complementary to the methods used by the WGCEP, but improve upon those methods in a number of important ways. In doing so, we distinguish between the “official” forecasts of the WGCEP, and the “research-quality” forecasts that we discuss here. Finally, we provide a brief discussion of future problems and issues related to the development of ensemble earthquake hazard estimation and forecasting techniques.