The Bayesian detection of discontinuities in a polynomial regression and its application to the cycle-slip problem

This paper deals with the problem of detecting and correcting cycle-slips in Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) phase data by exploiting the Bayesian theory. The method is here applied to undifferenced observations, because repairing cycle-slips already at this stage could be a useful pre-processing tool, especially for a network of permanent GNSS stations. If a dual frequency receiver is available, the cycle-slips can be easily detected by combining two phase observations or phase and range observations from a single satellite to a single receiver. These combinations, expressed in a distance unit form, are completely free from the geometry and depend only on the ionospheric effect, on the electronic biases and on the initial integer ambiguities; since these terms are expected to be smooth in time, at least in a short period, a cycle-slip in one or both the two carriers can be modelled as a discontinuity in a polynomial regression. The proposed method consists in applying the Bayesian theory to compute the marginal posterior distribution of the discontinuity epoch and to detect it as a maximum a posteriori (MAP) in a very accurate way. Concerning the cycle-slip correction, a couple of simultaneous integer slips in the two carriers is chosen by maximazing the conditional posterior distribution of the discontinuity amplitude given the detected epoch. Numerical experiments on simulated and real data show that the discontinuities with an amplitude 2 or 3 times larger than the noise standard deviation are successfully identified. This means that the Bayesian approach is able to detect and correct cycle-slips using undifferenced GNSS observations even if the slip occurs by one cycle. A comparison with the scientific software BERNESE 5.0 confirms the good performance of the proposed method, especially when data sampled at high frequency (e.g. every 1 s or every 5 s) are available.     

Low multipath antennas for GNSS-based attitude determination systems applied to high-altitude platforms

High-altitude platforms (HAPs) are a flexible and attractive technology for providing innovative wireless services. These aerial platforms can be successfully employed for mobile or broadband communications and for disaster monitoring or response. However, one of the open issues is whether HAP stations can provide reliable services without temporal outages owing to stratospheric winds that can cause positional and attitude instabilities thus affecting the communication system operation. To counteract this issue, one possible solution is to use reconfigurable antennas whose pointing direction can be adjusted depending on the platform spatial orientation. However, this would require real-time three-axial attitude data. As a possible solution, this paper will review the potential of GNSS-based attitude determination systems with reference to HAP stations. In particular, it will be shown how the use of a particular class of low multipath and lightweight antennas can provide a high degree of accuracy without altering the avionic ballast.     

Plio-Quaternary continental deposits of the Castellamonte area, between Orco and Dora Baltea Basins (Torino Province, Italy)

New geologic mapping of the area near Castellamonte (Torino Province) describes a wide Plio-Quaternary continental succession, up to about 100-m thick. This sequence is distinguished according to allostratigraphic criteria. Altitude, degree of pedogenesis and sediment supply from different basins are also used. Within a single alloformation, several lithofacies are described.Fine-grained fan-delta sediments (Vespia Alloformation) are described in the lower part of the continental succession. The fossil plant remains indicate an Early–Middle Pliocene age. These sediments show an evident deformation and fill ancient lacustrine basins, likely associated with the Canavese Line trend. Their wide distribution and considerable thickness suggest subsidence.Coarse-grained glacial, outwash and fluvial sediments (Colleretto Castelnuovo, S. Defendente, Case Musso, Pagliero, Serra and Piverone Alloformations) are described in the upper part of the continental succession. They consist of undeformed sediments deposited during Middle to Late Pleistocene. These sediments indicate the presence of small local glaciers along the current valley trends. The terracing ratios among the different units and their small thicknesses indicate subsequent differential uplift.     

Fluid Geochemistry as Indicator of Tectonically-Related,Deep Water Circulations in the Sardinian Rift-Campidano Graben (Italy): New Insights from Environmental Isotopes

The EC funded Geochemical Seismic Zonation program (EEC GSZ Project 1996–1998) chose Sardinia as a low-seismicity site, in which the relationships between fluid geochemistry and seismo-tectonics had to be investigated and results compared with outcomes from other selected high-seismicity sites. A first article, examining the role of fault segmentation and seismic quiescence on the geochemical composition of groundwaters and gases, has already been presented (Angelone et al. 2005). This article deals with environmental isotopes which, together with selected hydrochemical data, give hints on tectonically-related fluid circulations. Four water-dominated hydrothermal systems were considered, all located along regional fault systems and discharging groundwaters belonging to the Na–HCO₃ and Na–Cl facies. In the considered systems, groundwater circulation takes place, principally, in the Palaeozoic Crystalline Basement (PCB), with the exception of the Logudoro system, where hydrological circuits develop in the Mesozoic Carbonate Platform (MCP). The high CO₂ contents, the non-attainment of fluid-rock equilibrium and the large lithological variability prevent the construction of a unique hydrogeological–geochemical conceptual model. In this case, stable isotopes provide a useful tool to describe the origin of fluids and their subterranean movements. Stable isotopes of water, integrated with hydrochemical data, indicate that fluids are derived from three main end members. The dominant component is a relatively recent local meteoric water; the second one is marine water; and the third one is a fossil freshwater, depleted in heavy isotopes with respect to modern rains. The latter end member entered the aquifer system in the past, when climatic conditions were greatly different from today. At least two circulation systems can be recognised, namely a shallow cold system and a deep hydrothermal system, as well as two distinct hydrological processes: (1) gravity-controlled descent of cold water towards greater depths and (2) convection linked to a thermal gradient, causing deep fluids to rise up from the hydrothermal reservoir towards the surface. The highly variable δ¹³C_TDIC values suggest the presence of two distinct CO₂ sources, namely, a biogenic one and a thermogenic one. The relation between the isotopic compositions of CO₂ and He indicates an increased mantle signature in uprising CO₂-rich fluids.     

Groundwater flow systems in turbidites of the Northern Apennines (Italy): natural discharge and high speed railway tunnel drainage

Turbidites crop out extensively in the Northern Apennine mountains (Italy). The huge amounts of groundwater drained by tunnels, built for the high speed railway connection between Bologna and Florence, demonstrate the aquifer-like behaviour of these units, up to now considered as aquitards. A conceptual model of groundwater flow systems (GFS) in fractured aquifers of turbidites is proposed, taking into account both system natural state and the perturbation induced by tunnel drainage. Analysis of hydrological data (springs, streams and tunnel discharge), collected over 10 years, was integrated with analysis of hydrochemical and isotopic data and a stream-tunnel tracer test. Hydrologic recession analysis of undisturbed conditions is a key tool in studying turbiditic aquifer hydrogeology, permitting the discrimination of GFS, the estimation of recharge relative to the upstream reach portion and the identification of springs most vulnerable to tunnel drainage impacts. The groundwater budgeting analysis provides evidence that the natural aquifer discharge was stream-focused through GFS, developed downslope or connected to main extensional tectonic lineaments intersecting stream beds; now tunnels drain mainly active recharge groundwater and so cause a relevant stream baseflow deplenishment (approximately two-thirds of the natural value), possibly resulting in adverse effects on local ecosystems.     

Strain localization due to structural in-homogeneities in the Central European Basin System

The large-scale crustal deformations observed in the Central European Basin System (CEBS) are the result of the interplay between several controlling factors, among which lateral rheological heterogeneities play a key role. We present a finite-element integral thin sheet model of stress and strain distribution within the CEBS. Unlike many previous models, this study is based on thermo-mechanical data to quantify the impact of lateral contrasts on the tectonic deformation. Elasto-plastic material behaviour is used for both the mantle and the crust, and the effects of the sedimentary fill are also investigated. The consistency of model results is ensured through comparisons with observed data. The results resemble the present-day dynamics and kinematics when: (1) a weak granite-like lower crust below the Elbe Fault System is modelled in contrast to a stronger lower crust in the area extending north of the Elbe Line throughout the Baltic region; and (2) a transition domain in the upper mantle is considered between the shallow mantle of the Variscan domain and the deep mantle beneath the East European Craton (EEC), extending from the Elbe Line in the south till the Tornquist Zone. The strain localizations observed along these structural contrasts strongly enhance the dominant role played by large structural domains in stiffening the propagation of tectonic deformation and in controlling the basin formation and the evolution in the CEBS.     

Quantitative basin characterisation to refine debris-flow triggering criteria and processes: an example from the Italian Western Alps

This paper investigates rapid channelized debris flow related to rainfalls in small alpine basins. Its goal is to evaluate and correlate different geological and technical aspects with predisposing and triggering factors that can control these phenomena. The study area is the upper part of the Susa Valley where 12 small basins were selected. For each of them, lithological, geomorphological, climatic and technical information were mapped and analysed. Debris-flow triggering conditions, flow and depositional processes were related to physical characteristics of the basin that can be easily measured and quantified. At least three different groups of basins were found: G1) basins with one event each 4–6 years, characterised by massive or blocky calcareous rocks, G2) basins with more than one event per year that show an abundance of layered or sheared fine-grained rocks and G3) basins with recurrence levels exceeding 10 years, activated only by heavy and prolonged rainfalls, marked by massive or blocky coarse-grained igneous rocks. Furthermore, important morphometric differences were found. These considerations are useful in terms of hazard zonation and risk mitigation.     

Comparison of numerical models of two debris flows in the Cortina d’ Ampezzo area,Dolomites, Italy

The accurate prediction of runout distances, velocities and the knowledge of flow rheology can reduce the casualties and property damage produced by debris flows, providing a means to delineate hazard areas, to estimate hazard intensities for input into risk studies and to provide parameters for the design of protective measures. The application of most of models that describe the propagation and deposition of debris flow requires detailed topography, rheological and hydrological data that are not always available for the debris-flow hazard delineation and estimation. In the Cortina d’Ampezzo area, Eastern Dolomites, Italy, most of the slope instabilities are represented by debris flows; 325 debris-flow prone watersheds have been mapped in the geomorphological hazard map of this area. We compared the results of simulations of two well-documented debris flows in the Cortina d’Ampezzo area, carried on with two different single-phase, non-Newtonian models, the one-dimensional DAN-W and the two-dimensional FLO-2D, to test the possibility to simulate the dynamic behaviour of a debris flow with a model using a limited range of input parameters. FLO-2D model creates a more accurate representation of the hazard area in terms of flooded area, but the results in terms of runout distances and deposits thickness are similar to DAN-W results. Using DAN-W, the most appropriate rheology to describe the debris-flow behaviour is the Voellmy model. When detailed topographical, rheological and hydrological data are not available, DAN-W, which requires less detailed data, is a valuable tool to predict debris-flow hazard. Parameters obtained through back-analysis with both models can be applied to predict hazard in other areas characterized by similar geology, morphology and climate.     

Evidence of magmatic CO2-rich fluids in peraluminous graphite-bearing leucogranites from Deep Freeze Range (northern Victoria Land,Antarctica)

Fine-grained peraluminous synkinematic leuco-monzogranites (SKG), of Cambro-Ordovician age, occur as veins and sills (up to 20–30 m thick) in the Deep Freeze Range, within the medium to high-grade metamorphics of the Wilson Terrane. Secondary fibrolite + graphite intergrowths occur in feldspars and subordinately in quartz. Four main solid and fluid inclusion populations are observed: primary mixed CO₂+H₂O inclusions + Al₂SiO₅ ± brines in garnet (type 1); early CO₂-rich inclusions (± brines) in quartz (type 2); early CO₂+CH₄ (up to 4 mol%)±H₂O inclusions + graphite + fibrolite in quartz (type 3); late CH₄+CO₂+N₂ inclusions and H₂O inclusions in quartz (type 4). Densities of type 1 inclusions are consistent with the crystallization conditions of SKG (750°C and 3 kbar). The other types are post-magmatic: densities of type 2 and 3 inclusions suggest isobaric cooling at high temperature (700–550°C). Type 4 inclusions were trapped below 500°C. The SKG crystallized from a magma that was at some stage vapour-saturated; fluids were CO₂-rich, possibly with immiscible brines. CO₂-rich fluids (±brines) characterize the transition from magmatic to post-magmatic stages; progressive isobaric cooling (T<670°C) led to a continuous decrease off _{O 2} can entering in the graphite stability field; at the same time, the feldspars reacted with CO₂-rich fluids to give secondary fibrolite + graphite. Decrease ofT andf _{O 2} can explain the progressive variation in the fluid composition from CO₂-rich to CH₄ and water dominated in a closed system (in situ evolution). The presence of N₂ the late stages indicates interaction with external metamorphic fluids.Contribution within the network Hydrothermal/metamorphic water-rock interactions in crystalline rocks: a multidisciplinary approach on paleofluid analysis. CEC program: Human Capital and Mobility