Structural uncertainty assessment in a discharge simulation model

Abstract

A major goal in hydrological modelling is to identify and quantify different sources of uncertainty in the modelling process. This paper analyses the structural uncertainty in a streamflow modelling system by investigating a set of models with increasing model structure complexity. The models are applied to two basins: Kielstau in Germany and XitaoXi in China. The results show that the model structure is an important factor affecting model performance. For the Kielstau basin, influences from drainage and wetland are critical for the local runoff generation, while for the XitaoXi basin accurate distributions of precipitation and evapotranspiration are two of the determining factors for the success of the river flow simulations. The derived model uncertainty bounds exhibit appropriate coverage of observations. Both case studies indicate that simulation uncertainty for the low-flow period contributes more to the overall uncertainty than that for the peak-flow period, although the main hydrological features in these two basins differ greatly.

Citation Zhang, X. Y., Hörmann, G., Gao, J. F. & Fohrer, N. (2011) Structural uncertainty assessment in a discharge simulation model. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(5), 854–869.     

Flood disaster subcultures in The Netherlands: the parishes of Borgharen and Itteren

The Netherlands knows a persistent threat of flooding. To adapt to this dangerous reality, the Dutch have cultivated what disaster research literature has labeled ‘disaster subcultures’ or a set of cultural (tangible and intangible) tools to deal with the recurrent hazard. While there is abundant attention for the way the Dutch ‘coastal’ and ‘low-lying’ communities deal with the recurrent threat of (coastal) flooding, less is known about the way the Dutch ‘high-lands’ deal with the yearly threat of (fluvial) flooding. This article presents the findings of an explorative research endeavor (2011–2013) aimed at discerning if the disaster subculture concept has contemporary relevance in the Netherlands, particularly with respect to flooding, and if so, whether applying this lens would reveal more about the nature of existing disaster subcultures. Because less is known about the Dutch ‘high-lands,’ we chose to look into the existence and attributes of disaster subcultures in the parishes Borgharen and Itteren, which experience a systematic threat of flooding. Our findings suggest that the disaster subculture lens is valuable as it enables the empirical appreciation of disaster subcultures, even in a small country like the Netherlands, and it unveiled elements of these neighboring parishes’ flood reality that otherwise might have gone unnoticed and that seem central to understanding these two parishes’ levels of vulnerability and resilience. It is our contention that the concept ‘disaster subculture’ makes a greater understanding possible of the cultural context from which vulnerability and resilience to specific and recurrent threats emerge.     

Simulating the mobile barrier (MOSE) operation in the Venice Lagoon, Italy: global sea level rise and its implication for navigation

Three years of mobile barrier operations have been simulated with a hydrodynamic model to check the efficiency of the barriers in defending the city of Venice from flooding. The simulations have been carried out in the actual situation and with a sea-level rise of 30 and 50 cm. Moreover, the interference of the barrier operations with the ship traffic has been studied. It is found that without a security increment for the forecasted water levels, the mobile barriers cannot defend completely Venice from flooding due to the uncertainty in the forecast. With a security increment of 10 cm, the barriers work well in actual conditions but still cannot avoid flooding with a global sea-level rise. The interference with the ship traffic is acceptable under actual conditions but becomes prohibitive with a sea-level rise of 50 cm, when nearly two-thirds of the ship passages are blocked or delayed.     

Bruchtektonik und Schollenbau im Hohen Atlas südlich von Marrakech (Marokko)

Zusammenfassung Die Kartierung und tektonische Bearbeitung eines Ausschnittes des Westlichen Hohen Atlas südlich von Marrakech ergab detaillierte Vorstellungen über den herrschenden Schollenbau. Ein z. T. spätvariszisch angelegtes Störungsmuster von N 60° E, N 20° E und N 110° E streichenden Verwerfungen kontrollierte sowohl die Subsidenz in der Trias als auch die Heraushebung im Zuge der jungen Atlasgebirgsbildung im östlichen Teil der Axialzone des Gebirges. Die Vertikaltektonik erzeugte ein über den Raum des Arbeitsgebietes hinaus nachweisbares Kippschollenmuster. Das jüngere Deckgebirge wurde z. T. auf salinarem Untergrund abgeschert oder reagierte passiv auf die Bruchtektonik des Sockels. Damit verbundene Seitenverschiebungen werden diskutiert.

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Mapping and tectonic analysis of a part of the Western High Atlas near Marrakech reveals a predominating pattern of distinct fault bounded blocks. The consistent frame of N 60° E, N 20° E and N 110° E striking faults is partly herited from late hercynian or even older lineaments. The former controlled sedimentation processes during the Triassic as well as during Tertiary and Quaternary uplift of the central zone (massif ancien). Vertical motions of the rigid basement caused forced folding of the Mesozoic-Tertiary sedimentary layers. Implication of left lateral oblique-slip displacement is being discussed.

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Résumé L'étude structurale présentée ici se rapporte à une portion du Haut Atlas marocain située au sud de Marrakech. Elle est fondée sur un levé cartographique et sur l'analyse tectonique de la région qui s'étend entre l'Oued n'Fis et l'Oued Ourika (massif ancien). Cette étude a montré qu'il ne s'y est pas développé une déformation de style homogène mais que la région se compose de blocs isolés, séparés par des failles. Les blocs sont de dimensions diverses et diffèrent aussi bien par leur style de déformation que par les matériaux qui les constituent. Ce cadre structural est défini par des failles inverses de directions caractéristiques N 60 °E, N 20 °E et N 110 °E. Cette distribution se retrouve dans d'autres régions du Haut Atlas. Des changements brusques d'épaisseur aux environs des failles majeures montrent qu'elles ont contrôlé la subsidence pendant le Permo-Trias et en partie déjà pendant le Viséen. L'apparition d'une deformation cassante ou de plis isopaques dépend des matériaux concernés et non du »Stockwerk«. Une schistosité de fracture apparaît sporadiquement. L'intensité de l'orogenèse hercynienne paraît faible comparée à celle de la région située plus à l'Ouest. Des mouvements de décrochement senestres sont rattachés à la dernière activité des failles majeures. Leur signification dans le cadre structural est discutée.Des discordances cartographiques témoignent de la déformation atlasique et du soulèvement de la chaîne du Haut Atlas.Cette inversion est dominée par des mouvements surtout verticaux le long de failles inverses très inclinées ou de type »oblique-slip«.

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New spatial dimensions of global cityscapes: From reviewing existing concepts to a conceptual spatial approach

Current global urbanisation processes are leading to new forms of massive urban constellations. The conceptualisations and classifications of these, however, are often ambiguous, overlap or lag behind in scientific literature. This article examines whether there is a common denominator to define and delimitate–and ultimately map–these new dimensions of cityscapes. In an extensive literature review we analysed and juxtaposed some of the most common concepts such as megacity, megaregion or megalopolis. We observed that many concepts are abstract or unspecific, and for those concepts for which physical parameters exist, the parameters are neither properly defined nor used in standardised ways. While understandably concepts originate from various disciplines, the authors identify a need for more precise definition and use of parameters. We conclude that often, spatial patterns of large urban areas resemble each other considerably but the definitions vary so widely that these differences may surpass any inconsistencies in the spatial delimitation process. In other words, today we have tools such as earth observation data and Geographic Information Systems to parameterise if clear definitions are provided. This appears not to be the case. The limiting factor when delineating large urban areas seems to be a commonly agreed ontology.     

Exact asymmetric slope distributions in stochastic Gauss–Lagrange ocean waves

The stochastic Lagrange wave model is a realistic alternative to the Gaussian linear wave model, which has been successfully used in ocean engineering for more than half a century. This paper presents exact slope distributions and other characteristic distributions at level crossings for symmetric and asymmetric Lagrange space and time waves. These distributions are given as expectations in a multivariate normal distribution, and they have to be evaluated by simulation or numerical integration. Interesting characteristic variables are: slopes obtained by asynchronous sampling in space or time, slopes in space or time, and horizontal particle velocity, when waves are observed when the water level crosses a predetermined level.     

Catchments as reactors: a comprehensive approach for water fluxes and solute turnover

Sustainable water quality management requires a profound understanding of water fluxes (precipitation, run-off, recharge, etc.) and solute turnover such as retention, reaction, transformation, etc. at the catchment or landscape scale. The Water and Earth System Science competence cluster (WESS, http://www.wess.info/) aims at a holistic analysis of the water cycle coupled to reactive solute transport, including soil–plant–atmosphere and groundwater–surface water interactions. To facilitate exploring the impact of land-use and climate changes on water cycling and water quality, special emphasis is placed on feedbacks between the atmosphere, the land surface, and the subsurface. A major challenge lies in bridging the scales in monitoring and modeling of surface/subsurface versus atmospheric processes. The field work follows the approach of contrasting catchments, i.e. neighboring watersheds with different land use or similar watersheds with different climate. This paper introduces the featured catchments and explains methodologies of WESS by selected examples.     

评价我国鄱阳湖流域森林生态系统碳动态对植树造林与未来气候变化的响应

20世纪80年代我国鄱阳湖流域实施造林再造林工程,该区域森林面积大幅增加。大规模植物造林可能极大地影响该区域森林碳库与碳收支的变化。因此,气候变化背景下鄱阳湖流域碳平衡对中国碳循环有重要的作用。但是我们对于该地区长时间尺度的碳平衡,特别是在未来气候变化和CO2浓度上升的条件下森林生态系统碳源／汇趋势的了解不多。本研究利用过程模型InTEC模型结合区域气候模式（RIEMS2．0）模拟的未来气候资料估算了鄱阳湖流域1981—2050年碳收支情况。1981—2000年,年NPP的快速增加主要归因于大规模的植树造林;森林土壤有机碳（0-30cm）在植树造林初期每年降低1％。同时该地区森林在过去20年期间从碳源转化为碳汇。2040—2050年森林总碳库相比较2001—2010年增加0．78PgC。基于气候变化和CO2浓度增加（A1B）背景下,鄱阳湖流域NEP趋向于稳定（20—30Tgcy^-1）,除了少数年份因为干旱引发了大的碳汇损失。模拟结果同样表明水分是控制该地区NEP年际变化的主要因子而NPP的年际波动主要受到温度的影响。