Tsunami hazard in the Eastern Mediterranean: strong earthquakes and tsunamis in Cyprus and the Levantine Sea

A modern tsunami catalogue has been compiled for the region of Cyprus-Levantine Sea in which 24 certain or possible local tsunamis are listed from antiquity up to the present time, while six regional tsunamis, generated in the Hellenic arc, are documented which affected the region. Another set of 13 doubtful events not included in the catalogue are discussed. Tsunami intensities k and K were re-evaluated using the classic 6-grade and the new 12-grade intensity scales, respectively. The strongest tsunamis reported in the region of interest are those of 551 AD, 749, 1068, 1201, 1222, 1546 and 1759, all occurring along the Levantine coast from Gaza northward, with the exception of the 1222 wave which occurred in the Cyprean arc. The causative earthquakes, however, occur on land and are associated with the left-lateral strike-slip Levantine rift and, as such, remain unexplained. In this paper we speculate on the mechanism of these events. A second tsunami zone follows the Cyprean arc, where the situation of subaqueous seismogenic sources favours the generation of tsunamis by co-seismic fault displacements. Submarine or coastal earth slumping, however, may be an additional tsunamigenic component. Based on historical data, the average tsunami recurrence in the Cyprus-Levantine Sea region is roughly estimated to be around 30 years, 120 years and 375 years for moderate (k/K ≥ 2/3), strong (k/K ≥ 3/5) and very strong (k/K ≥ 5/8) events, respectively. The rate of tsunami occurrence equals 0.033, 8.3 × 10⁻³ and 2.7 × 10⁻³ events/year for intensity k/K ≥ 2/3, 3/5 and 5/8, respectively. For a Poissonian (random) process the probabilities of observing at least one moderate, strong or very strong tsunami are 0.28, 0.01 and 3 × 10⁻³ within 1 year, 0.81, 0.34 and 0.13 within 50 years and 0.96, 0.56 and 0.24 within 100 years, respectively. The tsunami potential in the Cyprus-Levantine Sea area is low relative to other Mediterranean tsunamigenic regions. However, the destructiveness of some historical events indicates the need to evaluate tsunami hazard by all available means. In addition, remote tsunamigenic sources, such as those of 1303 and 1481 in the eastern Hellenic arc, are able to threaten the coasts of the Cyprus-Levantine region and, therefore, such regional tsunamis should be taken into account in the evaluation of the tsunami risk of the region.     

Hypoxia in the northern Gulf of Mexico: Does the science support the Plan to Reduce,Mitigate, and Control Hypoxia?

We update and reevaluate the scientific information on the distribution, history, and causes of continental shelf hypoxia that supports the 2001 Action Plan for Reducing, Mitigating, and Controlling Hypoxia in the Northern Gulf of Mexico (Mississippi River/Gulf of Mexico Watershed Nutrient Task Force 2001), incorporating data, publications, and research results produced since the 1999 integrated assessment. The metric of mid-summer hypoxic area on the LouisianaTexas shelf is an adequate and suitable measure for continued efforts to reduce nutrients loads from the Mississippi River and hypoxia in the northern Gulf of Mexico as outlined in the Action Plan. More frequent measurements of simple metrics (e.g., area and volume) from late spring through late summer would ensure that the metric is representative of the system in any given year and useful in a public discourse of conditions and causes. The long-term data on hypoxia, sources of nutrients, associated biological parameters, and paleoindicators continue to verify and strengthen the relationship between the nitratenitrogen load of the Mississippi River, the extent of hypoxia, and changes in the coastal ecosystem (eutrophication and worsening hypoxia). Multiple lines of evidence, some of them representing independent data sources, are consistent with the big picture pattern of increased eutrophication as a result of long-term nutrient increases that result in excess carbon production and accumulation and, ultimately, bottom water hypoxia. The additional findings arising since 1999 strengthen the science supporting the Action Plan that focuses on reducing nutrient loads, primarily nitrogen, through multiple actions to reduce the size of the hypoxic zone in the northern Gulf of Mexico.     

Experimental study on the vertical deformation of aquifer soils under conditions of withdrawing and recharging of groundwater in Tongchuan region,China

Land subsidence due to aquifer-system compaction accompanying groundwater extraction is a global hazard. Rising urban construction and groundwater demand necessitate increased awareness and better understanding of the geological problem. Motivated by the lack of laboratory-scale studies on this issue, an experimental investigation on the newly developed Tongchuan region, China, is presented. The study addresses the deformation behaviors of three soil samples, with the lithology of silty clay, silt, and fine sand, under the conditions of groundwater withdrawal and recharge using the GDS Consolidation Testing System. Results indicate that all three samples were characterized by elastic–plastic deformation under the conditions of withdrawing and recharging. The vertical deformation of the silty clay in the aquitard above the first confined aquifer was larger than those of the other two samples, and its deformation is a gradual and long process; thus, considerable attention should be paid to deformation in this aquitard due to the apparent creep effect and tiny rebound deformation. However, the settlement of the fine sand in the second confined aquifer cannot be ignored due to the great thickness of the aquifer. For the same soil, as the pore-water pressure declined, the unit rate of vertical deformation decreased gradually, whereas the creep effect of deformation in the later declining stage of pore-water pressure was more apparent than that in the former declining stage. These observations are highly important to the local government, which is developing measures to prevent and control subsidence.     

Multifunctional intervention and market rationality in agricultural governance: a comparative study of England and South Australia

Critiques of the neoliberal governance of agricultural systems have led to a number of political responses which attempt to address the socio-environmental consequences of the dominant regime. In this paper two case study regions (South Australia and England) have been chosen to represent variations in agricultural policy and to highlight subsequent outcomes on the sustainability of agriculture. Interviewed governance stakeholders highlighted issues in regard to the agricultural governance of each area, from social and environmental consequences of minimal policy intervention in South Australia, to issues created by greater economic support in England. As such, the distinct variations in agricultural regimes will continue to demand scholarly attention, in order for the value of diversity within the sector to be more widely understood. The study concludes that it is likely agricultural support will continue to decline in both case study regions. Importantly, however, innovative policy mechanisms that aim to reduce local risks and value local agricultural priorities, without requiring significant financial support, might be the most promising way forward in regard to agricultural system sustainability.     

Large eddy simulation of extreme hydrodynamic forces on structures with mitigation walls using OpenFOAM

The objective of this study is to evaluate the performance of a large eddy simulation (LES) numerical model to assess the influence of mitigation walls with various cross sections on the tsunami-induced loading exerted on a freestanding structure. The validation of the model was performed using laboratory experiment results previously conducted by the second author. The employed experiments simulated a tsunami-like bore at two different impoundment depths, including 55 and 85 cm. The results showed that the one-equation subgrid-scale energy transport LES approach performs better than RANS models such as k-ε, k-ω and LRR and can accurately reproduce experimental data obtained for a wide range of experimental conditions.     

Reduction of future disaster damages by learning from disaster experiences

This paper examines the effect of a country’s own past disaster experiences and nearby countries’ past experiences on subsequent disaster damage. We use global disaster data from 1990 to 2010, which include disaster-related death tolls for both natural and technological disasters that are further divided into sub-categories. Overall, we find evidence of a reduction effect of past disaster damage on future disaster damage. More detailed analyses show that an adaptation effect seems to be present for certain combinations of disaster types and levels of economic development. The results show that a country’s own experiences reduce future damage for natural disasters but that the marginal effect is larger for lower-income countries. On the other hand, for technological disasters, a robust impact of experiences was found only in higher-income countries. In terms of the disaster experiences of nearby countries, the adaptation effect was found only for natural disasters, and the marginal impact was relatively higher for higher-income countries.     

Simulating research on pressure distribution of floor pore water based on fluid-solid coupling

In terms of the problem that deep coal resources are under the threats of high water pressure, it is necessary to further study the outburst mechanism of working face floor karst water from the view of studying varying patterns of rock mechanical parameters and confined water pressure distribution of floor rock under the mining influence in the process of mining. Through the theoretical research of fluid-solid coupling and rock seepage experiment, the changing rule of the rock porosity and the Young’s modulus is analyzed, the changing law of the floor displacement is obtained by establishing the floor mechanic model, and the relation between elastic energy density and rock mass unit strain is established. Based on the numerical model of fluid-solid coupling analysis by the Comsol Multiphysics software, the changing law of floor displacement corresponds to the theoretical solution, the different variation laws of rock mass of different depths under the actions of ground pressure are acquired by simulation calculation, the distribution characteristics of pore water pressure are discussed, and the elastic energy density of the rock mass under the action of imbalance water pressure before and after mining is comparatively analyzed. Studies show that the distribution of pore water pressure is horizontally different before and after the stress peak line, and it mainly has four distribution patterns vertically. When mining above the confined water, the spatiotemporal position when and where the upper and lower boundaries of the rock mass in the lower water-resisting layer release energy at the same time is critical to the occurrence of water inrush.     

DFT study of the carbonation on mineral aerosol surface models of olivine: effect of water

Mineral aerosols play a significant role in gas–solid interfacial and atmospheric chemistry. Carbonation of olivine aerosol, which takes place in a multiphase reaction processes, can be an effective means to reduce the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Due to the presence of a huge reserve of silicate minerals in nature, olivine aerosol could be an ideal potential raw material for mineral carbonation for its higher reactivity with H₂O and CO₂. However, quantitative information about the carbonation process on the surface of natural olivine aerosol is not available. In this paper, calculations on the carbonation reaction processes with and without a H₂O molecule using a periodic olivine model has been carried out via the density functional theory. The pathways and their corresponding energies and structures in the carbonation reactions have been established, and the effect of water as means to reduce the energy barriers and stabilize the carbonated structures by forming hydrogen bonds has been confirmed.     

Delineation of groundwater protection zones by the backward particle tracking method: theoretical background and GIS-based stochastic analysis

The backward particle tracking method, an effective and powerful tool that can be used to delineate groundwater protection zones, is presented. The theoretical background and insights on the applicability of this method are provided. Moreover, the present work enriches the backward particle tracking method with an uncertainty analysis concerning the porosity values, applying a Monte Carlo (MC) approach, coupled with the use of geographical information systems (GIS). As an application example, a wellfield in the Komotini area, Greece, is investigated. The present study may serve as a potential guideline for wellfield delineation, particularly in areas like Greece where lack of data related to the hydrogeological system is often a problem.     

Probabilistic modeling of seismically triggered landslides using Monte Carlo simulations

The 2004 Chuetsu earthquakes of Niigata (Japan) triggered numerous landslides, and the most widespread types of landslides were highly disrupted, relatively shallow slides and soil (debris) flows. This paper presented a method to evaluate slope instability using Newmark displacement on a pixel-by-pixel basis in a given area. The proposed method was able to integrate Newmark displacement modeling and Monte Carlo simulations within geographical information systems. In the modeling, an empirical attenuation relationship was utilized to calculate Arias intensity over this study area, and the variability of geotechnical parameters was taken into account to calculate coseismic landslide displacement. Before deriving the displacement from related inputs, the Monte Carlo simulations ran 1,500 times and generated 1,500 displacement values for each grid cell, and then means and standard deviations of displacement were calculated and probabilistic distributions can be obtained. Finally, given 10 cm as a threshold value of displacement, estimated probabilities of displacement exceeding 10 cm were shown as a map of seismic landslide hazards. The resulting hazard map was classified into four categories from very low to high level.