Effect of the inter-annual variability of rainfall statistics on stochastically generated rainfall time series: part 2. Impact on watershed response variables

This study analyzes how the stochastically generated rainfall time series accounting for the inter-annual variability of rainfall statistics can improve the prediction of watershed response variables such as peak flow and runoff depth. The modified Bartlett–Lewis rectangular pulse (MBLRP) rainfall generation model was improved such that it can account for the inter-annual variability of the observed rainfall statistics. Then, the synthetic rainfall time series was generated using the MBLRP model, which was used as input rainfall data for SCS hydrologic models to produce runoff depth and peak flow in a virtual watershed. These values were compared to the ones derived from the synthetic rainfall time series that is generated from the traditional MBLRP rainfall modeling. The result of the comparison indicates that the rainfall time series reflecting the inter-annual variability of rainfall statistics reduces the biasness residing in the predicted peak flow values derived from the synthetic rainfall time series generated using the traditional MBLRP approach by 26–47 %. In addition, it was observed that the overall variability of the peak flow and run off depth distribution was better represented when the inter-annual variability of rainfall statistics are considered.     

Temporal dynamics of soil water balance components in a karst range in southeastern Spain: estimation of potential recharge

Abstract

This paper analyses the temporal dynamics of soil water balance components in a representative recharge area of the Sierra de Gádor (Almeria, southeastern Spain) in two hydrological years. Two approaches are used to estimate daily potential recharge (PR): Approach 1 based on deriving PR from the water balance as the difference between measurements of rainfall (P) and actual evapotranspiration (E) obtained by eddy covariance; and Approach 2 with PR obtained from the dynamic pattern of the soil moisture (θ) recorded at two depths in the site's thin soil (average 0.35 m thickess). For the hydrological year 2003/04, which was slightly drier than the 30-year average, E accounted for 64% of rainfall and occurred mainly in late spring and early summer. The PR estimated by Approach 1 was 181 ± 18 mm year^-1 (36% of rainfall), suggesting an effective groundwater recharge in the study area. In the unusually dry hydrological year 2004/05, E was about 215 mm year^-1, close to the annual rainfall input, and allowing very little (8 ± 12 mm year^-1) PR according to Approach 1. Estimation of PR based on Approach 2 resulted in PR rates lower than those found by Approach 1, because Approach 2 does not take into account the recharge that occurs through preferential flow pathways (cracks, joints and fissures) which were not monitored with the θ probes. Moreover, using Approach 2, the PR estimates differed widely depending on the time scale considered: with daily mean θ data, PR estimation was lower, especially in late spring, while θ data at 30 min resolution yielded a more reliable prediction of the fraction of total PR resulting from the downward movement of soil water by gravity.

Citation Cantón, Y., Villagarcía, L., Moro, M. J., Serrano-Ortíz, P., Were, A., Alcalá, F. J., Kowalski, A. S., Solé-Benet, A., Lázaro, R. & Domingo, F. (2010) Temporal dynamics of soil water balance components in a karst range in southeastern Spain: estimation of potential recharge. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(5), 737–753.     

Variability of extreme precipitation in coastal river basins of the southern mexican Pacific region

Extreme wet and dry years (± 1 standard deviation, respectively), as well as the top 95 percentile (P95) of daily precipitation events, derived from tropical cyclone (TC) and nontropical cyclone (NTC) rainfall, were analyzed in coastal river basins in Southern Oaxaca, Mexico (Río Verde, Río Tehuantepec, and the Southern Coast). The study is based on daily precipitation records from 47 quality-controlled stations for the 1961 to 1990 period and TC data for the Eastern Tropical Pacific (EPAC). The aim of this study was to evaluate extreme (dry and wet) trends in the annual contribution of daily P95 precipitation events and to determine the relationship of summer precipitation with El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacifical Decadal Oscillation (PDO). A regionalization based on a rotated principal component analysis (PCA) was used to produce four precipitation regions in the coastal river basins. A significant negative correlation (significance at the 95% level) was only found with ONI in rainfall Region 3, nearest to the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Wet years, mainly linked to TC-derived P95 precipitation events, were associated with SST anomalies (≥?0.6°C) similar to weak La Niña and Neutral cool conditions, while dry years were associated with SST positive anomalies similar to Neutral warm conditions (≤?0.5°C). The largest contribution of extreme P95 precipitation derived from TCs to the annual precipitation was observed in Region 3. A significant upward trend in the contribution of TC-derived precipitation to the annual precipitation was found only in Region 1, low Río Verde.     

Effect of galvanic distortions on the series and parallel magnetotelluric impedances and comparison with other responses

The series and parallel impedances of the magnetotelluric tensor are appraised in relation to their relative immunity to galvanic electric distortions. The distorted responses are modeled using the Groom-Bailey decomposition of the tensor in terms of twist, shear, statics and strike direction. These four parameters and the undistorted responses are normally considered as unknowns, and are obtained from field data through the solution of an inverse problem. In the present work we use the decomposition as a forward model to simulate distorted sounding curves. Starting with undistorted 2-d te and tm responses, the tensor is distorted by assuming arbitrary values of twist, shear, static and strike direction. By default, both series and parallel responses are immune to the strike direction because they are invariants under rotation. In addition, series responses are immune to twist and shear and parallel responses only to twist. The dependence of the latter on shear is in the form of a real factor that shifts downwards the amplitude curves. On the other hand, the effect of statics on both series and parallel responses is more complicated than that on the impedance tensor because it cannot be accounted for by a simple shift of the curves. On the whole, there is a positive balance on the part of the series and parallel impedances over the te and tm responses because some of the distortions are filtered out by the invariants. It is shown that invariance is not sufficient to be immune to any of the distortions. The example chosen is Eggers’ eigenvalues, which are immune only to the by-the-fault strike direction. Invariance is not necessary either, as evidenced by the phase tensor, whose elements depend on strike but are immune to all distortions. The derivations are illustrated using soundings from the synthetic coprod2s1 and field-recorded coprod2 and bc87 data sets.     

Talc mineralisation associated with soft hematite ore, Gongo Soco deposit, Minas Gerais, Brazil: petrography, mineral chemistry and boron-isotope composition of tourmaline

Talc mineralisation occurs as hematite–talc schist between soft hematite ore and dolomitic itabirite at Gongo Soco, Quadrilátero Ferrífero of Minas Gerais, Brazil. The hematite–talc schist and soft hematite have a prominent tectonic foliation of tabular hematite. Tabular hematite without preferential orientation is superimposed on the tectonic foliation. The talcose schist is enriched in F and has a constant Fe/S ratio. Electron-microprobe analyses indicate trace amounts of S in different generations of hematite. The whole-rock Fe/S ratio possibly represents sulfate S from hematite-hosted fluid inclusions. Fluid inclusions in foliation-overprinting hematite and chlorite geothermometry from talcose rocks suggest, respectively, temperatures from <200°C to ~300°C. Tourmaline, a rarely observed mineral in the hematite–talc schist, belongs to the alkali group and falls in the dravite compositional field. Boron-isotope determinations of tourmaline crystals, using secondary ion mass spectrometry, vary from −20‰ to −12‰ δ¹¹B. This compositional isotopic range and the tourmaline chemical composition suggest a meta-evaporitic origin. A non-marine evaporitic setting is the most likely source of acidic, highly oxidising fluids, which resulted in the abundant F-bearing talc and the presence of otherwise immobile Ti in hematite. Oxidising brines were channelled along shear zones and converted dolomitic itabirite into the Gongo Soco soft hematite and the talc mineralisation. The latter is envisaged as the hydrothermal wall-rock alteration of dolomitic itabirite, which gave rise to the soft hematite ore.     

The 2011 submarine volcanic eruption in El Hierro (Canary Islands)

Forty years after the Teneguía Volcano (La Palma, 1971), a submarine eruption took place off the town of La Restinga, south of El Hierro, the smallest and youngest island of the Canarian Archipelago. Precursors allowed an early detection of the event and its approximate location, suggesting it was submarine. Uncertainties derived from insufficient scientific information available to the authorities during the eruption, leading to disproportionate civil protection measures, which had an impact on the island's economy—based primarily on tourism—while residents experienced extra fear and distress.     

Space/time tectono-sedimentary evolution of the Umbria-Romagna-Marche Miocene Basin (Northern Apennines, Italy): a foredeep model

The space/time evolution of the Umbria-Romagna-Marche domains of the northern Apennine Miocene foredeep is proposed. In this period, the turbidite siliciclastic sedimentation is represented mainly by the Miocene Marnoso-Arenacea Formation, which generally ends with mainly marly deposits. From the internal Apennine sectors (Umbria-Romagna domain) to the external Adriatic Margin (Marche domain) the siliciclastic succession overlies hemipelagic marly deposits (Schlier Formation). The whole depositional area can be considered as a single wide basin with depocenter or main sedimentation areas progressively migrating eastwards. This basin is characterized by some morphological highs which did not constitute real dams for the sedimentary flows (turbidity currents). Multiple feeding (arkose, litharenites, calcarenites) from different sources is related to palaeogeographical and palaeotectonic reorganization of the most internal, previously deformed, Apennine areas. The activation of the foredeep stage is marked by the beginning of the siliciclastic sedimentation (Late Burdigalian in the most internal sector). This sedimentation ends in the most external sector in the Early Messinian, pointing to a depositional cycle of about 9?C10?Ma. The diachronism of the base of the siliciclastic deposition proves to be almost 5?Ma. The syn-depositional compressional deformation, which shows a marked diachronism, affected the internal area of the foredeep in the Early-Middle Serravallian, and progressively migrated up to Late Miocene, involving more and more external sectors. The deformed siliciclastic sedimentary wedge constitutes an orogenic pile incorporated in the Apennine Chain, represented by different tectonic elements superimposed by means of NE-vergent thrusts. The main stratigraphic and tectonic events of the Toscana-Romagna-Marche Apennines are presented in a general framework, resulting also in a terminological revision.     

Stratospheric circulation in seasonal forecasting models: implications for seasonal prediction

Accurate seasonal forecasts rely on the presence of low frequency, predictable signals in the climate system which have a sufficiently well understood and significant impact on the atmospheric circulation. In the Northern European region, signals associated with seasonal scale variability such as ENSO, North Atlantic SST anomalies and the North Atlantic Oscillation have not yet proven sufficient to enable satisfactorily skilful dynamical seasonal forecasts. The winter-time circulations of the stratosphere and troposphere are highly coupled. It is therefore possible that additional seasonal forecasting skill may be gained by including a realistic stratosphere in models. In this study we assess the ability of five seasonal forecasting models to simulate the Northern Hemisphere extra-tropical winter-time stratospheric circulation. Our results show that all of the models have a polar night jet which is too weak and displaced southward compared to re-analysis data. It is shown that the models underestimate the number, magnitude and duration of periods of anomalous stratospheric circulation. Despite the poor representation of the general circulation of the stratosphere, the results indicate that there may be a detectable tropospheric response following anomalous circulation events in the stratosphere. However, the models fail to exhibit any predictability in their forecasts. These results highlight some of the deficiencies of current seasonal forecasting models with a poorly resolved stratosphere. The combination of these results with other recent studies which show a tropospheric response to stratospheric variability, demonstrates a real prospect for improving the skill of seasonal forecasts.     

Paleosecular variation and absolute geomagnetic paleointensity records retrieved from the Early Cretaceous Posadas Formation (Misiones,Argentina)

The Early Cretaceous may be considered a key period for understanding the evolution of the Earth’s magnetic field. Some still unsolved problems are related to the mode of paleosecular variation (PSV) of the Earth’s magnetic field before and during the Cretaceous Normal Superchron. We report here a detailed rock-magnetic, paleomagnetic and paleointensity investigation from 28 lava flows (331 standard paleomagnetic cores) collected in the Argentinean part of the Parana Flood Basalts (Formation Posadas) in order to contribute to the study of PSV during the early Cretaceous and to obtain precise Cretaceous paleomagnetic pole positions for stable South America. The average paleofield direction is precisely determined from 26 sites, which show small within-site dispersion and high directional stability. Five sites show evidences for the self-reversal of thermoremanent magnetization. 23 sites yielded normal polarity magnetization and only 3 are reversely magnetized. Moving windows averages were used to analyze the sequential variation of virtual geomagnetic pole’s (VGP) axial positions. Interestingly, the axial average VGP path traces an almost complete cycle around the geographical pole and passes near the location of all previously published Paraná Magmatic Province poles. Both paleomagnetic poles and average VGP paths are significantly different from the pole position suggested by fixed hotspot reconstructions, which may be due to true polar wander or the hotspot motion itself. Only 15 samples from 5 individual basaltic lava flows, yielded acceptable paleointensity estimates. The site mean paleointensities range from 25.2 ± 2.2 to 44.0 ± 2.2 μT. The virtual dipole moments (VDMs) range from 4.8 to 9.9 × 10²² Am². This correspond to a mean value of 7.7 ± 2.1 × 10²² Am² which is 96% of the present day geomagnetic field strength. These intensities agree with the relatively high values already reported for Early Cretaceous, which are consistent with some inferences from computer simulations previously published.