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171.
Coastal flood risks and seasonal tourism: analysing the effects of tourism dynamics on casualty calculations 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
Wim Kellens Tijs Neutens Pieter Deckers Johan Reyns Philippe De Maeyer 《Natural Hazards》2012,60(3):1211-1229
Since coastal tourism is one of the fastest growing sectors of tourism industry, coastal areas have become increasingly vulnerable
in the case of flooding. While in recent years a number of different methods have been put forward to map coastal flood risks,
the implications of tourism dynamics for the assessment of human casualties has remained largely overlooked in these models.
This chapter examines to what extent the ignorance of (residential) coastal tourism may bias the calculations of human casualties.
To this end, a case study has been conducted on the Belgian coast. Both the dynamic nature of coastal tourism and the behaviour
of residential tourists in storm surge scenarios are considered. The results of this study show that including tourism dynamics
in flood risk management is justified and appropriate, depending on the tourist attractiveness of the flood-prone area and
its temporal fluctuations. 相似文献
172.
Philippe E. Raison Stephen Heathman Gilles Wallez Carmen E. Zvoriste Denis Bykov Ga?l Ménard Emmanuelle Suard Karin Popa Nicolas Dacheux Rudy J. M. Konings Roberto Caciuffo 《Physics and Chemistry of Minerals》2012,39(8):685-692
The crystal structure of the cheralite—CaTh(PO4)2—has been revisited by neutron diffraction and its behaviour under high pressure investigated by X-ray diffraction up to 36?GPa. The neutron diffraction data at ambient pressure gave a more accurate determination of the Ca/Th cation position than previous XRD data, taking advantage that the neutron scattering lengths of calcium and thorium are of same order of magnitude. The nuclear density distribution was also determined using the maximum entropy method (MEM) confirming that the two cations are not located at the same position in the unit cell but are slightly displaced from one another along a specific direction in order to minimize the electrostatic repulsion with the surrounding phosphorus atoms. At high pressure, the compound did not show any phase transition or amorphization. From the evolution of the unit-cell volume as a function of the pressure, the zero-pressure bulk modulus B0 and its pressure derivative B0 ′ have been determined by fitting the experimental compressibility curve to the Birch–Murnaghan equation of state. The results are B0?=?140(2) GPa and B 0 ′ ?=?4.4(4) GPa. 相似文献
173.
A Robust Set-Inversion via Interval Analysis method in a bounded-error framework is used to compute three-dimensional location zones in real time, at a given confidence
level. This approach differs significantly from the usual Gaussian error model paradigm, since the satellite positions and
the pseudorange measurements are represented by intervals encompassing the true value with a particular level of confidence.
The method computes a location zone recursively, using contractions and bisections of an arbitrarily large initial location
box. Such an approach can also handle an arbitrary number of erroneous measurements using a q-relaxed solver and allows the integration of geographic and cartographic information such as digital elevation models or
three-dimensional maps. With enough data redundancy, inconsistent measurements can be detected and even rejected. The integrity
risk of the location zone comes only from the measurement bounds settings, since the solver is guaranteed. A method for setting
these bounds for a particular location zone confidence level is proposed. An experimental validation using real L1 code measurements
and a digital elevation model is also reported in order to illustrate the performance of the method on real data. 相似文献
174.
Laure Moulin Ana Isabel Catarino Thomas Claessens Philippe Dubois 《Marine pollution bulletin》2011,62(1):48-54
The effect of pH ranging from 8.0 to 6.8 (total scale - pHT) on fertilization, cleavage and larval development until pluteus stage was assessed in an intertidal temperate sea urchin. Gametes were obtained from adults collected in two contrasting tide pools, one showing a significant nocturnal pH decrease (lowest pHT = 7.4) and another where pH was more stable (lowest pHT = 7.8). The highest pHT at which significant effects on fertilization and cleavage were recorded was 7.6. On the contrary, larval development was only affected below pHT 7.4, a value equal or lower than that reported for several subtidal species. This suggests that sea urchins inhabiting stressful intertidal environments produce offspring that may better resist future ocean acidification. Moreover, at pHT 7.4, the fertilization rate of gametes whose progenitors came from the tide pool with higher pH decrease was significantly higher, indicating a possible acclimatization or adaptation of gametes to pH stress. 相似文献
175.
In climatology and hydrology, univariate Extreme Value Theory has become a powerful tool to model the distribution of extreme events. The Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) is routinely applied to model excesses in space or time by letting the two GPD parameters depend on appropriate covariates. Two possible pitfalls of this strategy are the modeling and the interpretation of the scale and shape GPD parameters estimates which are often and incorrectly viewed as independent variables. In this note we first recall a statistical technique that makes the GPD estimates less correlated within a Maximum Likelihood (ML) estimation approach. In a second step we propose novel reparametrizations for two method-of-moments particularly popular in hydrology: the Probability Weighted Moment (PWM) method and its generalized version (GPWM). Finally these three inference methods (ML, PWM and GPWM) are compared and discussed with respect to the issue of correlations. 相似文献
176.
本文介绍了中国科学院青藏高原研究所在阿尔金断裂西段进行GPS观测的剖面布设和首期观测情况.利用GAMIT/GLOBK软件对首期观测数据进行了处理,并将结果归算到区域参考框架下.GAMIT计算得到的"准观测值"均满足所须精度,其中单天解标准化均方差小于0.3,基线的平均相对精度为1.8×10-9.GLOBK在区域参考框架... 相似文献
177.
Generation mechanisms for mesoscale eddies in the Gulf of Lions: radar observation and modeling 总被引:2,自引:2,他引:0
Amandine Schaeffer Anne Molcard Philippe Forget Philippe Fraunié Pierre Garreau 《Ocean Dynamics》2011,61(10):1587-1609
Coastal mesoscale eddies were evidenced during a high-frequency radar campaign in the Gulf of Lions (GoL), northwestern Mediterranean Sea, from June 2005 to January 2007. These anticyclonic eddies are characterized by repeated and intermittent occurrences as well as variable lifetime. This paper aims at studying the link between these new surface observations with similar structures suggested at depth by traditional acoustic Doppler current profiler measurements and investigates the eddy generation and driving mechanisms by means of an academic numerical study. The influence of the wind forcing on the GoL circulation and the eddy generation is analyzed, using a number of idealized configurations in order to investigate the interaction with river discharge, buoyancy, and bathymetric effects. The wind forcing is shown to be crucial for two different generation mechanisms: A strong northerly offshore wind (Mistral) generates a vortex column due to the bathymetric constraint of a geostrophic barotropic current, which can surface after the wind relaxes; a southerly onshore wind generates a freshwater bulge from the Rhône river discharge, which detaches from the coast and forms a well-defined surface anticyclonic eddy based on buoyancy gradients. These structures are expected to have important consequences in terms of dispersion or retention of biogeochemical material at local scales. 相似文献
178.
Nadia Senechal Stéphane Abadie Edith Gallagher Jamie MacMahan Gerd Masselink Hervé Michallet Ad Reniers Gerben Ruessink Paul Russell Damien Sous Ian Turner Fabrice Ardhuin Philippe Bonneton Stéphane Bujan Sylvain Capo Raphael Certain Rodrigo Pedreros Thierry Garlan 《Ocean Dynamics》2011,61(12):2073-2098
A large multi-institutional nearshore field experiment was conducted at Truc Vert, on the Atlantic coast of France in early 2008. Truc Vert’08 was designed to measure beach change on a long, sandy stretch of coast without engineering works with emphasis on large winter waves (offshore significant wave height up to 8 m), a three-dimensional morphology, and macro-tidal conditions. Nearshore wave transformation, circulation and bathymetric changes involve coupled processes at many spatial and temporal scales thus implying the need to improve our knowledge for the full spectrum of scales to achieve a comprehensive view of the natural system. This experiment is unique when compared with existing experiments because of the simultaneous investigation of processes at different scales, both spatially (from ripples to sand banks) and temporally (from single swash events to several spring-neap tidal cycles, including a major storm event). The purpose of this paper is to provide background information on the experiment by providing detailed presentation of the instrument layout and snapshots of preliminary results. 相似文献
179.
The identification of groundwater parameters in heterogeneous systems is a major challenge in groundwater modeling. Flexible parameterization methods are needed to assess the complexity of the spatial distributions of these parameters in real aquifers. In this article, we introduce an adaptative parameterization to identify the distribution of hydraulic conductivity within the large‐scale (4400 km2) Upper Rhine aquifer. The method is based on adaptative multiscale triangulation (AMT) coupled with an inverse problem procedure that identifies the parameters' distributions by reducing the error between measured and simulated heads. The AMT method has the advantage of combining both zonation and interpolation approaches. The AMT method uses area‐based interpolation rather than an interpolation based on stochastic features. The method is applied to a standard 2D groundwater model that takes into account the interactions between the aquifer and surface water bodies, groundwater recharge, and pumping wells. The simulation period covers 204 months, from January 1986 to December 2002. Recordings at 109 piezometers are used for model calibration. The simulated heads are globally quite accurate and reproduce the main dynamics of the system. The local hydraulic conductivities resulting from the AMT method agree qualitatively with existing local experimental observations across the Rhine aquifer. 相似文献
180.