南疆博斯腾湖近12.OkaB.P.以来古气候与古水文状况的变化

对南疆博斯腾湖湖相沉积物多手段的综合研究，揭示了近12.0kaB.P.以来古气候与古水文状况的变化过程与特征。结果表明，其气候的演化特征具有明显的西风型环境演变特征。研究还发现气候于12.0ka、10.0ka、4.0ka和1.5kaB.P.存在显著的阶梯式增暖变干特征，其中暖峰主要出现于11.5—11.0ka、9.4ka、7.5—7.0ka、6.5—6.0ka、3.0ka和2.0kaB.P.，气候特征以干暖为主，湖泊水文特征总体表现为盐度增加、水位下降、湖面缩小；而冷峰主要出现于11.0—10.0ka、8.8ka、5.0—4.5ka、3.3ka和1.5kaB.P.，此时湖泊膨胀淡化，湖面上升。在7.0—5.0kaB.P.期间出现的相对暖湿环境特征可能是全新世大暖期最盛期暖湿气候特征的反映，可能与此时西南夏季风势力增强有关，湖泊水文状况明显变好。     

T形配钢钢骨混凝土柱抗震性能数值分析

为研究非对称配钢钢骨混凝土柱的抗震性能,基于12根T形配钢钢骨混凝土柱的拟静力试验研究进行非线性数值模拟,了解其破坏机制、承载力、延性及耗能能力,探讨轴压比、配钢率、剪跨比对抗震性能的影响。结果表明,低周反复荷载作用下T形配钢钢骨混凝土柱滞回曲线饱满,具有良好的延性和耗能能力。在峰值荷载前,数值模拟结果与试验结果吻合较好。轴压力在一定范围内提高了试件承载力,但降低了延性;增大配钢率能提高试件的承载力、刚度和延性,使得峰值荷载后试件的性能退化趋于平缓;剪跨比对试件破坏形态有显著影响,随剪跨比的增大试件延性性能提高。     

双低技术在腹主动脉联合下肢动脉CTA中的可行性探讨

目的:比较腹主动脉联合下肢动脉CT成像中两种不同对比剂注射方案对对比剂剂量的影响。方法:搜集临床上怀疑腹主-下肢动脉疾病行CT血管成像(CTA)的患者50例,随机分为A、B组,对比剂(350 mg I/m L),A组:男16例,女9例,平均年龄(58.53±9.39)岁,平均体质量(67.86±11.65)kg,平均扫描范围(124.65±8.28)cm。B组:男17例,女8例,平均年龄(60.87±9.76)岁,平均体质量(66.23±12.42)kg,平均扫描范围(122.59±9.12)cm。A组注射流率4 m L/s,对比剂用量1.5 m L/kg。B组第1期5 m L/s注射20 m L,第2期3 m L/s注射剩余量;B组对比剂总量=1.5 m L/kg×体重-4 m L/s×(B方案对比剂注射时间-A方案对比剂注射时间)。对比剂注射完毕两组均以3 m L/s流率无缝隙注射生理盐水30 m L。两组均选择智能触发技术,监测平面为腹主动脉(右膈肌水平),阈值≥150 HU。对两组5个动脉段图像质量进行评分;测量5个动脉段CT值,记录两组对比剂剂量。均进行独立样本0.05)。A、B组对比剂剂量分别为(93.79±13.68)m L和(74.61±14.76)m L,差异有统计学意义(相似文献   

1856年重庆小南海地震地质灾害成因探讨

基于课题调查研究,解析历史地震记载和小南海地震遗址的现存形迹,梳理前人的认识,推算重力崩塌的势能及其相当的地震震级,探讨几种可能的地震地质灾害成因,同时也提出其他可能的诱发因素,认为小南海地震地质灾害可能是多次构造地震叠加的结果,也可能是纯粹的山体自然坍塌形成的塌陷型地震,而彻底揭开小南海地震地质灾害谜团还需人类科研实践的进一步发展,也需要更广泛学科的共同探讨。     

Uncertainty assessment and optimization of hydrological model with the Shuffled Complex Evolution Metropolis algorithm: an application to artificial neural network rainfall-runoff model

Assessment of parameter and predictive uncertainty of hydrologic models is an essential part in the field of hydrology. However, during the past decades, research related to hydrologic model uncertainty is mostly done with conceptual models. As is accepted that uncertainty in model predictions arises from measurement errors associated with the system input and output, from model structural errors and from problems with parameter estimation. Unfortunately, non-conceptual models, such as black-box models, also suffer from these problems. In this paper, we take the artificial neural network (ANN) rainfall-runoff model as an example, and the Shuffled Complex Evolution Metropolis algorithm (SCEM-UA) is employed to analysis the parameter and predictive uncertainty of this model. Furthermore, based on the results of uncertainty assessment, we finally arrive at a simpler incomplete-connection artificial neural network (ICANN) model as well as with better performance compared to original ANN rainfall-runoff model. These results not only indicate that SCEM-UA can be a useful tool for uncertainty analysis of ANN model, but also prove that uncertainty does exist in ANN rainfall-runoff model. Additionally, in some way, it presents that the ICANN model is with smaller uncertainty than the original ANN model.     

多源遥感技术在汶川震后高精度数字高程模型重建中的精度分析

汶川地震后,震中地区地表形态遭到很大破坏.在该地区开展科学研究急需高精度数字高程模型支持,重建震区数字高程模型十分必要.本文以高精度重建该地区数字高程模型为目标,综合ALOS PRISM获取的三轨立体像对、ALOS PALSAR雷达影像和欧空局发布的汶川地震ENVISAT雷达影像等资料,采用光学遥感立体测图技术、InSAR技术,并融合已有全球数字高程模型,研究建立覆盖此地区15m分辨率的数字高程模型.在利用中国地壳运动监测网络和陆态网络工程项目实测的GPS数据进行高程精度分析后表明:ALOS PRISM DEM精度优于10 m(95％置信度);ALOS PALSAR DEM精度优于10 m(95％置信度),而ENVSAT ASAR DEM在平原、丘陵地区精度优于20 m(95％置信度).研究证明:ALOS PRISM能进行高精度的地形测量,ALOS PALSAR在山区仍可获得高精度数字高程模型,ENVISAT ASAR在平原地区的精度较高.因此融合光学、雷达遥感技术完全满足获取高精度、高分辨率震区数字高程模型的需要,这为在困难地区建立高精度数字高程模型提供了一个很好的途径.     

Influence of Three Gorges Dam on streamflow and sediment load of the middle Yangtze River, China

Using updated hydrological datasets from three stations, including Cuntan, Yichang and Hankou, covering the period of January 1992–December 2008, the influence of Three Gorges Dam (TGD) on streamflow and sediment load of the Yangtze River was investigated. Results indicated that TGD did not seem to exert a significant influence on streamflow occurring at three stations and changes in streamflow can be mainly attributed to streamflows of tributaries. However, a sharp decrease in the sediment load after the impoundment of TGD was observed. Clear water after the impoundment caused erosion of riverbed and resulted in more sediment at the Hankou station than at the Yichang station. No distinct changes in the annual and monthly maximum sediment loads were observed before and after the impoundment. Therefore, annual and monthly maximum sediment load changes should be subjected mainly to river hydraulics. This study has practical relevance for understanding the influence of large hydraulic structures on the hydrological processes of large rivers.     

ABCD2评分法结合颅脑DWI及CTA预测TIA后脑梗死风险

目的：在ABCD2评分基础上,评估结合弥散加权成像（DWI）及CTA对短暂性脑缺血（TIA）后短期内发生脑梗死风险的预测价值。方法：连续选取本院2015年1月至2017年6月170例TIA患者（平均年龄62.4岁±5.4岁）,全部患者均行DWI及CTA检查,且随访3个月。分别于7天、3个月记录患者ABCD2评分、DWI阳性结果及CTA诊断大动脉粥样硬化（LAA）,以评估所有患者短期内发生脑梗死风险的预测价值。结果：170例患者中,68例（40%）患者DWI阳性,43例（25%）诊断LAA。DWI阳性患者中单侧肢体无力（OR=2.3;95% CI,1.1~4.8）,TIA症状持续时间≥ 60 min（OR=3.7;95% CI,1.4~9.9）,ABCD2> 5（OR=5.4;95% CI,1.5~18.8）,LAA（OR=2.7;95% CI,1.3至5.5）。随访期间,7天内发生脑梗死1例,7天至3个月内发生脑梗死6例,ABCD2评分> 5（OR=24.4;95% CI,2.5~238.7）,DWI阳性结果（OR=9.8;95% CI,1.1~83.1）,LAA（OR=20.4;95% CI,2.4~175.1）。除1例患者外,3个月内发生脑梗死的DWI均为阳性。ABCD2评分、DWI阳性结果及LAA与7天、3个月脑梗死风险的增加是相关联的。结论：在ABCD2评分基础上引入DWI和CTA检查作为辅助,能提高对TIA后发生脑梗死风险的预测能力。     

HOLOCENE ACTIVE CHARACTERISTICS OF THE NORTHERN SEGMENT OF THE MINJIANG FAULT IN THE EASTERN MARGIN OF THE TIBETAN PLATEAU

As a part of the north-south seismic zone in China, a lot of M6.0-7.2 earthquakes have occurred in the margin faults of the Minshan block in history. This work attempted to characterize the geometry and activity of the north section of the Minjiang fault in this region based on high-resolution satellite images, geologic and geomorphic investigations, micro-geomorphic surveys, and trench excavation. The results show left-lateral-slip and Holocene activity of this structure. Along it, the offset landform has a continuous linearity on Ⅱ terraces near the Chuanpan village. The vertical height of the fault scarp measures 3.1 meters, which is almost the same as the accumulative horizontal displacement of the gully. The accumulative horizontal shortening due to faulting is 3.0 meters. Calculation using the model of displacement-dependent characteristic earthquakes shows both the vertical and horizontal co-seismic displacements and the horizontal shortening amount are about 1.0 meter. While strata dating suggests that the vertical and horizontal slip rates are all about 0.7-0.9mm/a, and the horizontal shortening rate is approximately 1.0-1.1mm/a. The excavated trench, perpendicular to the fault trace, reveals low-angle thrust dipping in 260åt 29°. From the relationship of the fault, colluvial wedge and stratigraphy ages, three palaeoseismic events are identified from youngest to oldest at 0-295a BP, 1 405-1 565a BP, and 2 750-2 875a BP, respectively, with recurrence intervals 1 110-1 565 years and elapsed time about 0-295 years。According to the relationship between magnitude and active parameters, it is considered that the northern segment of the Minjiang fault is capable of generating M7 or greater earthquakes. Now it is in the process of stress accumulation, having a certain seismic risk.     

移动荷载作用下Kerr地基梁稳态响应解答

研究Kerr地基上的均质Euler-Bernoulli梁在移动集中荷载作用下的稳态响应,分析有无阻尼存在时列车速度、地基压缩刚度、剪切刚度对Kerr地基梁挠度曲线的影响。计算结果表明,地基阻尼的存在能明显减少移动荷载引起的地基梁挠度,地基梁的挠度受地基压缩刚度的影响比剪切刚度更为明显。