转移概率预报方法在霜冻预报中的应用

本文在简介转移概率预报方法及最大概率预报原理的基础上,分析了吕梁市1957年～2000年霜冻初、终日期各随机时间序列状态之间的转换规律,结合各序列的初始分布,建立预报模型,并对1995年～2004年的初、终霜日期进行了预报效果检验。结果表明,该方法预报效果好,使用性强,具有良好的应用前景。     

一种Delaunay三角网的快速生成算法

本文以Lawson提出的逐点插入法为基础，借鉴方向搜索的思想，在确定插入点的影响凸包时，采用递归的局部搜索策略，形成了一种Delaunay三角网的快速生成算法。实验证明，新算法构网时间与点数基本成线性增长关系，具有较高的效率。     

Geophysical survey on the tectonic and sediment distribution of Qinghai Lake basin

1 Introduction in China, with an area of 4400 km2 and a drainage area With the advancement of global change study, peo- of nearly 29,660 km2[2]. Occurring at a “climatic triple ple are paying more and more attention to the conti- junction” among the East Asian monsoon, Indian nental environment (in which we reside), its evolution Monsoon and the Westerly Jet Stream, it lies in the and its future tendency. As a component of the global transitional belt of the east monsoonal humid areas sys…     

Miocene Bahean stratigraphy in the Longzhong Basin, northern central China and its implications in environmental change

Fossil mammal-riched Neogene strata are widely distributed in the southeast corner of the huge Longzhong Basin at Tianshui, Gansu Province, northern central China. Hipparion weihoense, a typical member of late Middle Miocene Bahean stage, was recently excavated at Yaodian along a well-exposed outcrop. Owing to the importance of the Bahean stage in the mammalian evolution and its potential for environmental change, we suggested a name of Yaodian Formation for the stratigra- phy, which is correlated to the Bahe Formation at Lantian, Shaanxi. High resolution paleomagnetic dating of the section shows that the Yaodian Formation covers the period between 11.67 Ma and 7.43 Ma, with the site bearing Hipparion weihoense being estimated at about 10.54―10.30 Ma, providing first magnetostratigraphic chronology for the Bahean Stage. The Yaodian Formation consists of fluvial channel deposits (11.67―10.40 Ma) at the bottom, floodplain deposits in the middle (10.40―9.23 Ma) and shallow lake sediments at the top (9.23―7.43 Ma). This upward fining sequence suggests that the relief in nearby mountain ranges such as West Qinling to the south and Huajia Ling to the north was greatly reduced after long-term denudation, fluvial transport capacity was low, and finally the drainage system was disintegrated, replaced with broad-shallow lakes in which only fine sediments like mud and marlite were deposited, indicating an old stage of development of a planation surface. A remarkable shift in ecology and climatic environment was found at 7.4―7.7 Ma when paleoclimate changed from early warm humid to late dry as indicated by sedimentary facies changed from early shallow lake sequence to late eolian red clays and a former coniferous-deciduous mixed forest was replaced by grassland, leading to great growth of Hipparion Fauna of Baodean stage in the region. Therefore, it is estimated that the present high relief of Qinling and drainage pattern did not come into being until Late Pliocene in response to intensive neotectonism and climate change.     

TSP在隧道超前地质预报的应用研究

由于隧道施工经常遇到严重的地质灾害,施工前进行超前地质预报是十分必要的。本文介绍了TSP超前地质预报系统的技术特点和基本原理,结合工程实例探讨了在使用TSP过程中的一些技术问题。结果显示利用工程地质调查结论可以确定合理的探测方案和提高TSP的预报精度。     

改进的传染型余震序列模型

将有限幂律公式（LPL）应用到传染型余震序列模型（ETAS）中，并对原ETAS模型加以改进。以台湾集集地震早期余震序列为例，对原ETAS模型与改进的ETAS模型进行了对比分析，结果表明改进的ETAS模型要优于原ETAS模型。     

防震减灾兴政安民——谈城市经济建设与防震减灾的关系

通过对经济建设与公益事业发展、应急救灾与全民防御、依法行政与主观决策、眼前利益与长治久安等关系的论述,认为,城市经济建设与防震减灾密切相关。论述了防震减灾与兴政安民之间的联系。结合太原市地震局近一年的改革实践,得出只要防震减灾与经济建设工作并肩发展,就能起到了“兴政安民”的作用。     

台风登陆我国川渝干旱严重——2006年7月

7月，全国平均气温为22．3℃，比常年同期偏高0．9℃，为1951年以来历史同期第3高值；全国平均降水量为116．8mm与常年同期持平。月内，强热带风暴碧利斯和台风格美相继在我国登陆，造成重大人员伤亡和经济损失。暴雨洪涝灾害频繁，安徽、湖南、广西、黑龙江等省（区）受灾较重。局地强对流天气多发，江苏、江西、河北等省受灾较重。西北东部、内蒙古中东部旱情缓解，四川、重庆、湖北等地干旱持续或发展；江南、华南北部及西南东部出现持续高温天气。     

内蒙古额济纳旗地貌特征及其构造、气候事件

根据遥感卫星影像解译及野外地质实地调查,将内蒙古额济纳旗地区的地貌单元划分为中低山区、冲—洪积平原、湖积盆地及风成地貌。根据不同地貌单元组成的沉积物年龄测定和分析,初步认为上新世—早更新世的构造抬升形成苏泊淖尔级湖积阶地;早更新世末(750±60kaBP),发生一次明显的构造抬升活动,形成东、西居延海间的台地;另一次明显的构造抬升记录发生在中更世末—晚更新世初,即149±60kaBP之后,形成黑城冲湖积台地;苏泊淖尔级阶地形成于全新世早、中期,属气候干旱湖泊萎缩形成的气候阶地,阶地沉积物中保存的古风成砂丘,表明晚更新世末—全新世早期气候一度恶化。天鹅湖湖积阶地的形成表明5000a之后一段时间,气候相对适宜;全新世中后期,气候波动强烈,1200aBP出现一次丰水期。     

民国时期上海霍乱频发的原因探略

阐述了民国时期上海霍乱的发生情况,并对其频发的原因进行了研究。研究结果认为,民国时期上海霍乱流行有三个方面的特点:一是频繁,数十年几乎无年不发生;二是死亡人数多,并涉及各色人等,尤以移民、苦力等下层社会群体受害最深;三是成因极为复杂,既有自然因素又有人为因素的作用,如贸易、人口、移民、城市管理、习惯文化、生活方式、社会分层、战争等。多种因素叠加交互作用,使上海成为当时中国三大霍乱中心之一。研究还发现,民国时期上海霍乱不同于一般的传染病,而是现代沿海城市畸形发展的一种城市病,其社会问题的层面要多于自然的层面。