Groundwater depth prediction in a shallow aquifer in north China by a quantile regression model

There is a close relationship between groundwater level in a shallow aquifer and the surface ecological environment; hence, it is important to accurately simulate and predict the groundwater level in eco-environmental construction projects. The multiple linear regression (MLR) model is one of the most useful methods to predict groundwater level (depth); however, the predicted values by this model only reflect the mean distribution of the observations and cannot effectively fit the extreme distribution data (outliers). The study reported here builds a prediction model of groundwater-depth dynamics in a shallow aquifer using the quantile regression (QR) method on the basis of the observed data of groundwater depth and related factors. The proposed approach was applied to five sites in Tianjin city, north China, and the groundwater depth was calculated in different quantiles, from which the optimal quantile was screened out according to the box plot method and compared to the values predicted by the MLR model. The results showed that the related factors in the five sites did not follow the standard normal distribution and that there were outliers in the precipitation and last-month (initial state) groundwater-depth factors because the basic assumptions of the MLR model could not be achieved, thereby causing errors. Nevertheless, these conditions had no effect on the QR model, as it could more effectively describe the distribution of original data and had a higher precision in fitting the outliers.     

Mapping of groundwater prospective zones integrating remote sensing,geographic information systems and geophysical techniques in El-Qaà Plain area,Egypt

The geospatial mapping of groundwater prospective zones is essential to support the needs of local inhabitants and agricultural activities in arid regions such as El-Qaà area, Sinai Peninsula, Egypt. The study aims to locate new wells that can serve to cope with water scarcity. The integration of remote sensing, geographic information systems (GIS) and geophysical techniques is a breakthrough for groundwater prospecting. Based on these techniques, several factors contributing to groundwater potential in El-Qaà Plain were determined. Geophysical data were supported by information derived from a digital elevation model, and from geologic, geomorphologic and hydrologic data, to reveal the promising sites. All the spatial data that represent the contributing factors were integrated and analyzed in a GIS framework to develop a groundwater prospective model. An appropriate weightage was specified to each factor based on its relative contribution towards groundwater potential, and the resulting map delineates the study area into five classes, from very poor to very good potential. The very good potential zones are located in the Quaternary deposits, with flat to gentle topography, dense lineaments and structurally controlled drainage channels. The groundwater potential map was tested against the distribution of groundwater wells and cultivated land. The integrated methodology provides a powerful tool to design a suitable groundwater management plan in arid regions.     

Polyaxial stress-dependent permeability of a three-dimensional fractured rock layer

A study about the influence of polyaxial (true-triaxial) stresses on the permeability of a three-dimensional (3D) fractured rock layer is presented. The 3D fracture system is constructed by extruding a two-dimensional (2D) outcrop pattern of a limestone bed that exhibits a ladder structure consisting of a “through-going” joint set abutted by later-stage short fractures. Geomechanical behaviour of the 3D fractured rock in response to in-situ stresses is modelled by the finite-discrete element method, which can capture the deformation of matrix blocks, variation of stress fields, reactivation of pre-existing rough fractures and propagation of new cracks. A series of numerical simulations is designed to load the fractured rock using various polyaxial in-situ stresses and the stress-dependent flow properties are further calculated. The fractured layer tends to exhibit stronger flow localisation and higher equivalent permeability as the far-field stress ratio is increased and the stress field is rotated such that fractures are preferentially oriented for shearing. The shear dilation of pre-existing fractures has dominant effects on flow localisation in the system, while the propagation of new fractures has minor impacts. The role of the overburden stress suggests that the conventional 2D analysis that neglects the effect of the out-of-plane stress (perpendicular to the bedding interface) may provide indicative approximations but not fully capture the polyaxial stress-dependent fracture network behaviour. The results of this study have important implications for understanding the heterogeneous flow of geological fluids (e.g. groundwater, petroleum) in subsurface and upscaling permeability for large-scale assessments.     

Do landslides follow landslides? Insights in path dependency from a multi-temporal landslide inventory

Landslides are a major category of natural disasters, causing loss of lives, livelihoods and property. The critical roles played by triggering (such as extreme rainfall and earthquakes), and intrinsic factors (such as slope steepness, soil properties and lithology) have previously successfully been recognized and quantified using a variety of qualitative, quantitative and hybrid methods in a wide range of study sites. However, available data typically do not allow to investigate the effect that earlier landslides have on intrinsic factors and hence on follow-up landslides. Therefore, existing methods cannot account for the potentially complex susceptibility changes caused by landslide events. In this study, we used a substantially different alternative approach to shed light on the potential effect of earlier landslides using a multi-temporal dataset of landslide occurrence containing 17 time slices. Spatial overlap and the time interval between landslides play key roles in our work. We quantified the degree to which landslides preferentially occur in locations where landslides occurred previously, how long such an effect is noticeable, and how landslides are spatially associated over time. We also investigated whether overlap with previous landslides causes differences in landslide geometric properties. We found that overlap among landslides demonstrates a clear legacy effect (path dependency) that has influence on the landslide affected area. Landslides appear to cause greater susceptibility for follow-up landslides over a period of about 10  years. Follow-up landslides are on average larger and rounder than landslides that do not follow earlier slides. The effect of earlier landslides on follow-up landslides has implications for understanding of the landslides evolution and the assessment of landslide susceptibility.     

Critical Review of the Hypervib1 Model to Assess Pile Vibro-Drivability

The vibratory driving technique is used for driving piles, sheet piles, tubes and rods into the ground by imparting to the element a longitudinal periodic motion. The small amplitude vibrations induced by the equipment reduce the ground resistance which allows penetration under the action of a relatively small axial force. The technique offers an alternative to impact driving due to lower installation costs and reduced environmental disturbance (noise, vibration, etc.) especially in sensitive environments, such as industrial and urban sites or offshore wind farm sites. The vibratory technique is also preferred when the maximum stress levels imparted to the driven element are of concern. Despite the advantages of the vibratory driving technique, its application remains however mainly driven by pragmatic aspects. Within that context, the access to experience databases and full-scale field test results is of valuable interest. The aim of this paper is to review the Hypervib1 model developed by (Holeyman 1993) for assessing the vibratory drivability of piles and sheet piles, based on the analysis of such experimental results. New findings and developments brought to the model are discussed. Conclusions in terms of reliability of the method are finally drawn.     

GPR Signatures of Pipes and Walls with Emphasis on the Effect of Inclined Scanning Trajectory

This study investigates the effects of some commonly encountered constraints such as inclined scanning trajectory, multiple targets in the vicinity and material variation on GPR responses of pipes and walls. Further, the effects of wall inclination and broken walls are also explored in GPR signatures. Interpretation of such signatures in GPR data for archaeological and geotechnical surveys has been a challenge. A physical model was created to simulate buried pipes and walls under controlled conditions by maintaining density and moisture content of the soil medium. The presence of PVC pipes, plastered brick and stone walls buried in the dry sand have been investigated and major observations have been reported. The inclined scanning trajectory on buried pipes shows a change in curvature of hyperbola-like signatures. Inclined transects near the ends of pipes and walls manifest single limb GPR signatures. The responses of multiple pipes and walls show dependence on separation of targets and footprint of an antenna. One can discern stone walls from brick walls by recognizing the diffraction of waves by irregular stones in GPR responses. The signatures of walls differ from pipes with respect to the width of the apex and variation in the intensity in the limb.     

Community vulnerability to hazards: introducing local expert knowledge into the equation

The accuracies of three different evolutionary artificial neural network (ANN) approaches, ANN with genetic algorithm (ANN-GA), ANN with particle swarm optimization (ANN-PSO) and ANN with imperialist competitive algorithm (ANN-ICA), were compared in estimating groundwater levels (GWL) based on precipitation, evaporation and previous GWL data. The input combinations determined using auto-, partial auto- and cross-correlation analyses and tried for each model are: (i) GWL _t?1 and GWL _t?2; (ii) GWL _t?1, GWL _t?2 and P _t ; (iii) GWL _t?1, GWL _t?2 and E _t ; (iv) GWL _t?1, GWL _t?2, P _t and E _t ; (v) GWL _t?1, GWL _t?2 and P _t?1 where GWL _t , P _t and E _t indicate the GWL, precipitation and evaporation at time t, individually. The optimal ANN-GA, ANN-PSO and ANN-ICA models were obtained by trying various control parameters. The best accuracies of the ANN-GA, ANN-PSO and ANN-ICA models were obtained from input combination (i). The mean square error accuracies of the ANN-GA and ANN-ICA models were increased by 165 and 124% using ANN-PSO model. The results indicated that the ANN-PSO model performed better than the other models in modeling monthly groundwater levels.     

Analytical derivation of water retention for random monodisperse granular media

The mechanics of water retention in unsaturated granular media is of critical importance to a broad range of disciplines including soil science, geotechnical engineering, hydrology and agriculture. Fundamental to water retention is the relationship between degree of saturation and suction, referred to as the water retention curve (WRC). The majority of WRC models are empirically based and seldom incorporate physically meaningful parameters. This study presents an analytical model for the WRC that considers separate contributions from fully filled pores and partially filled pores containing liquid bridges. A recently established unique k-gamma pore volume distribution function for randomly assembled monodisperse granular materials is adopted to determine the contributions of fully filled pores. Calculation of the contribution of residual pore water retained in partially filled pores is undertaken by representing pores as individual cells shaped as platonic shapes of various sizes and determining the volume of all liquid bridges suspended between particles within the pore cells. Weighting factors for the various cell types are obtained from the pore volume distribution to determine the relative contribution of different pore cell geometries to the total residual pore water. The combined model accurately describes experimental data for monodisperse spherical glass beads for both wetting and drying, even though the underlying assumptions do not reflect exactly the complex, interconnected and highly irregular geometry of the pore space. A single parameter provides the lateral shift between the wetting and drying curves. The results of this study provide a geometric understanding of the mechanisms of water retention in granular media.     

The junction of Fensch and Moselle rivers,France; mineralogy and composition of river materials

The Moselle river flows in the north-east of France, from Vosges Mountains to neighboring countries Luxembourg and Germany. One of its tributaries, the Fensch river, drains a highly industrialized watershed, strongly impacted by mining, smelting and surfacing activities. The objective of this work, part of a general research program on Moselle watershed (Zone Atelier Moselle) was to assess the impact of the polluted Fensch river on the global quality of the Moselle river. For that purpose, water, sediments and suspended particulate matter were sampled in both rivers, upstream and downstream the junction. Four main sampling campaigns were carried out, in winter during a flood event and in spring at low water level. On a first step, mineralogical analyses (XRD and FTIR) and chemical analyses (ICP-MS, ICP-AES), were performed on sediments, suspended particulate matters and filtered waters. Major and trace elements concentrations were obtained on two different granulometric fractions (0–2 mm and 0–50 μm) revealing the enrichment in heavy metals of fine particles. From one collecting campaign to another, seasonal variations could be evidenced on suspended matter composition even though major minerals (calcite, quartz and kaolinite) were always present. Furthermore, spatial variations were evidenced for Fensch and Moselle downstream sediments. Thus, very fine-grained sediments, poorly crystallized, displaying at the same time higher metal concentrations and higher organic matter content than in Fensch river material, were collected downstream, in a low hydrodynamic conditions zone, assumed as a preferential sedimentary zone or even as a placer. Strong correlations could be revealed between iron content and contaminant concentrations, confirming the origin of polluted material.     

Stratigraphy and geochemistry of pillow basalts within the ophiolitic mélange of the Izmir–Ankara–Erzincan suture zone: implications for the geotectonic character of the northern branch of Neotethys

The Izmir-Ankara-Erzincan suture zone of Turkey is a broad zone of ophiolitic mélange containing numerous fragmented blocks ranging in age from Triassic to Cretaceous. Stratigraphic sequences for various mélange units are compared, together with the geochemistry of associated basaltic pillow lavas of Cretaceous age. A review of geochemical data for the pillow lavas demonstrate: (a) a dominant group of alkalic basalts with enriched incompatible elements, variable Zr/Y and Zr/Nb ratios, and (b) a range of tholeiitic basalts with slightly depleted to mildly enriched (normalized) rare earth patterns, (La/Yb)_N 0.4-3.0, and generally low Zr/Y ratios. The alkalic basalts can be chemically matched to Pacific Ocean seamounts, although the close association of red radiolarites and cherts suggests that many basalts represent the margins of such structures, rather than the main seamount edifice. Nd-Sr isotope data are typical for ocean island basalts and represent an admixture of a dominant EM-1 source and a depleted MORB-like source. Enhanced δ¹⁸O compositions are a consequence of submarine alteration and not crustal contamination. Tholeiitic compositions have affinities with both N- and E-type MORB, although most are probably representative of tholeiitic ocean islands. Overall the basalts are mainly representative of structures built on the ocean floor, rather than the oceanic crust itself, being scraped off the subducting crust and preserved in the mélange of the accretionary wedge.