Research on the loss of group residential buildings under fierce winds

The prediction and assessment of the loss of group residential buildings under fierce winds are not only an important but also a very basic work. Many rural buildings, especially situated in southeastern of China, have suffered great damage and losses during such wind events in past 10 years. One new methodology is proposed in this study in order to estimate and evaluate the loss reasonably based on group building types and distribution, wind intensities and directions. This methodology comprehensively considers the mechanisms of interaction between the roof tiles, roof panels, doors and windows, which are more likely damaged seriously during fierce winds, the physical properties of those components, the wind pressure coefficients on the surface of group buildings in different wind directions, etc. Then Monte Carlo simulation is used to estimate the damage of group residential buildings under simulated fluctuating winds with different speeds and measured typhoon records. The simulation results indicate that our proposed quantified assessment method can be utilized for official, developers, architects, designers and homeowners to estimate and mitigate the losses that might be experienced during wind-related disasters either pre- or post-construction.     

Local site effect of a clay site in Shiraz based on seismic hazard of Shiraz Plain

Propagation of seismic waves through soil layers would drastically change the frequency content and amplitude-based features of ground motions at the surface. These alterations are known as seismic site effects. Computation of site effects of high-populated areas such as large cities is of great importance (e.g., it is used in development of seismic microzonation of a region). Shiraz is one of the most populous cities of Iran and is located in a high seismic hazardous region. A representative clay site in this city is selected to assess local site effects. The time series and random vibration theory procedure in the frequency domain are implemented to analyze the aforementioned site. Furthermore, the nonlinear dynamic soil behavior is simulated by the equivalent linear method and the nonlinear method via DEEPSOIL program. Three types of soil column uncertainties such as shear wave velocity, modulus reduction, and damping ratio of soil layers as well as depth of underlying rock half-space (D _bed) are considered herein. The mean amplification and standard deviation of natural logarithm of amplification factors are computed for a variety of analysis types. The results of the current study show that the computed mean and standard deviation of amplification factor in ln units by considering only V _S uncertainty are in good agreement with the corresponding ones by considering V _S and modulus reduction and damping ratio variabilities simultaneously for the studied site. Furthermore, it seems that the effect of bedrock depth in definition of spectral shapes of the Iranian seismic building code should be taken into account.     

Integration of stress testing with graph theory to assess the resilience of urban road networks under seismic hazards

Transportation networks daily provide accessibility and crucial services to societies. However, they must also maintain an acceptable level of service to critical infrastructures in the case of disruptions, especially during natural disasters. We have developed a method for assessing the resilience of transportation network topology when exposed to environmental hazards. This approach integrates graph theory with stress testing methodology and involves five basic steps: (1) establishment of a scenario set that covers a range of seismic damage potential in the network, (2) assessment of resilience using various graph-based metrics, (3) topology-based simulations, (4) evaluation of changes in graph-based metrics, and (5) examination of resilience in terms of spatial distribution of critical nodes and the entire network topology. Our case study was from the city of Kathmandu in Nepal, where the earthquake on April 25, 2015, followed by a major aftershock on May 12, 2015, led to numerous casualties and caused significant damage. Therefore, it is a good example for demonstrating and validating the developed methodology. The results presented here indicate that the proposed approach is quite efficient and accurate in assisting stakeholders when evaluating the resilience of transportation networks based on their topology.     

ENSO and IOD analysis on the occurrence of floods in Pakistan

Different techniques have been used to discuss the existence of significant relation between the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Various studies present their interaction and influence on the natural disasters (i.e. drought, flood, etc.) over large parts of the globe. This study uses a Markov chain method to investigate the relation between the ENSO and IOD for the period of 62 years (1950–2011) and aggregates their influence on the occurrence of floods in Pakistan. Both data sets show similarities in the formation of transition matrices and expected number of visits from one state to another. The strong values of 2-dimensional correlation and high self-communication of the transition states confirm the existence of a possible relation between ENSO and IOD data. Moreover, significant values of dependency and stationary test endorse the applicability of the Markov chain analyses. The independent analysis shows that strong events of both data sets are co-occurred in the same flood years. During the study period maximum number of floods was observed during summer monsoon season. However, further analysis shows that after 1970, Pakistan observed the highest percentage of floods occurred per year during El Nino, Non-ENSO and positive IOD years. These observations and results demonstrate that climate variability especially ENSO and IOD should be incorporated into disaster risk analyses and policies in Pakistan.     

Archaeoseismological evidence of past earthquakes in Rome (fifth to ninth century A.D.) used to quantify dating uncertainties and coseismic damage

The transformation of Rome during the Late Antiquity and the Early Middle Ages has been investigated by archaeologists and historians. Social and political changes are the main aspects which led to a progressive modification of the urban framework; abandonment, spoliation and transformation of buildings are quite diffused as documented by the archaeological literature. The consequence of these practices is a higher vulnerability of the buildings which, from the seismological point of view, played a main role in increasing the effects of seismic shaking. A number of earthquakes have struck Rome during the period of investigation (fifth to ninth century A.D.), known from historical sources: 443, 484–508, 618, 801, 847; in some cases (443, 484–508, 801) damage has been documented. In contrast, the archaeological sources characterise collapse layers and evidence of destruction at different sites with changing and not always conclusive chronological constraints. Consequently, collapse and destruction have been alternatively attributed to the above-mentioned earthquakes. Through a geoarchaeological and stratigraphic analysis of potentially coseismic collapse units, we want (1) to describe the archaeoseismic evidence derived from recent excavations and from the available literature (e.g. Piazza Madonna di Loreto, Piazza Venezia, Palazzo Valentini Crypta Balbi, Colosseo, Basilica Hilariana, Basilica di Santa Petronilla, Santa Maria Antiqua,…); (2) to discuss the chronological problems and the uncertainty of attribution of the collapse units to known historical earthquakes; (3) to discuss the earthquake damage exaggeration due to erroneous attribution of seismic origin to the evidence of destruction derived from archaeological data. Finally, we will infer the role that earthquakes may have had on the development of the urban landscape in the fifth to ninth century A.D.     

Developing models and envelope curves for extreme floods in the Saudi Arabia arid environment

Forecasting and monitoring extreme floods in arid regions like Saudi Arabia (SA) are a big challenge for engineers and hydrologists. It is difficult to derive reliable flood estimates at any site without adequate flood measurements. Therefore, envelope curves were developed for reliable estimates of flood peaks. Relaying on recorded flood events in SA, Francou–Rodier approach is used to develop the Regional Maximum Flood (RMF) for some wadis and for SA as a whole. A total of 3121 flood events in 32 arid basins of sizes varying from 99 to more than 4500 km² are collected and analyzed. Results show that established regional coefficients (K) range between 2.76 and 5.5. The RMF formula for the Saudi regions is Q?=?251 A^0.45. The flood-frequency analysis showed that the Log-Pearson Type III is best. The extreme observed floods for the envelope curve for K?=?5.5 accommodate floods of recurrence interval ranging between 1000 and 100,000 years. The study results provide more realistic runoff peaks for a design of flood protection works for SA watersheds and for the similar environment. Consequently, it is recommended to use the developed envelope curves and models for efficient, safe and precise hydraulic structures design in SA.     

Real-time identification of urban rainstorm waterlogging disasters based on Weibo big data

With the acceleration of urbanisation in China, preventing and reducing the economic losses and casualties caused by urban rainstorm waterlogging disasters have become a critical and difficult issue that the government is concerned about. As urban storms are sudden, clustered, continuous, and cause huge economic losses, it is difficult to conduct emergency management. Developing a more scientific method for real-time disaster identification will help prevent losses over time. Examining social media big data is a feasible method for obtaining on-site disaster data and carrying out disaster risk assessments. This paper presents a real-time identification method for urban-storm disasters using Weibo data. Taking the June 2016 heavy rainstorm in Nanjing as an example, the obtained Weibo data are divided into eight parts for the training data set and two parts for the testing data set. It then performs text pre-processing using the Jieba segmentation module for word segmentation. Then, the term frequency–inverse document frequency method is used to calculate the feature items weights and extract the features. Hashing algorithms are introduced for processing high-dimensional sparse vector matrices. Finally, the naive Bayes, support vector machine, and random forest text classification algorithms are used to train the model, and a test set sample is introduced for testing the model to select the optimal classification algorithm. The experiments showed that the naive Bayes algorithm had the highest macro-average accuracy.     

Review of comparative studies on market mechanisms for carbon emission reduction: a bibliometric analysis

This study uses the bibliometric method to analyze the comparative studies on different market mechanisms applied to carbon reduction between 1970 and 2016 based on the online databases of Science Citation Index Expanded (1970–2016) and Social Science Citation Index (2002–2016). We found by observing the characteristics of publications that such studies belong to a multidisciplinary field that has been continuously developing since the 1990s. The USA and the UK have maintained their leading research strengths in the field, whereas China entered late but has developed rapidly. The most productive journal, institution, and author in this field are Energy Policy, Resources for the Future, and Pizer from the USA, respectively. The auctorial and institutional cooperation degrees are growing and still have a broad collaboration space, but the cooperation among countries is fluctuating at a lower level. Nonetheless, the USA keeps its significant international cooperation ties. The bibliographic coupling and co-citation analysis reveals that articles in this field are closely related to one another. The basic literature in the field was written by Weitzman and published in 1974, and the article by Nordhaus published in Science in 1992 is the most cited in the field. The analysis of keywords and abstract shows that the hot spots include policy choice, price-versus-quantity analysis, and mechanism design.     

Assessing shallow landslide hazards using the TRIGRS and SHALSTAB models,Serra do Mar,Brazil

The hillslopes of the Serra do Mar, a system of escarpments and mountains that extend more than 1500 km along the southern and southeastern Brazilian coast, are regularly affected by heavy rainfall that generates widespread mass movements, causing large numbers of casualties and economic losses. This paper evaluates the efficiency of susceptibility mapping for shallow translational landslides in one basin in the Serra do Mar, using the physically based landslide susceptibility models SHALSTAB and TRIGRS. Two groups of scenarios were simulated using different geotechnical and hydrological soil parameters, and for each group of scenarios (A and B), three subgroups were created using soil thickness values of 1, 2, and 3 m. Simulation results were compared to the locations of 356 landslide scars from the 1985 event. The susceptibility maps for scenarios A1, A2, and A3 were similar between the models regarding the spatial distribution of susceptibility classes. Changes in soil cohesion and specific weight parameters caused changes in the area of predicted instability in the B scenarios. Both models were effective in predicting areas susceptible to shallow landslides through comparison of areas predicted to be unstable and locations of mapped landslides. Such models can be used to reduce costs or to define potentially unstable areas in regions like the Serra do Mar where field data are costly and difficult to obtain.     

Ghaleh-khargushi rhyodacite and Gorid andesite from Iran: characterization,uses, and durability

Durability of building stones is an important issue in sustainable development. Crystallization of soluble salts is recognized as one of the most destructive weathering agents of building stones. For this reason, durability of Ghaleh-khargushi rhyodacite and Gorid andesite from Iran was investigated against sodium sulfate crystallization aging test. Petrographic and physico-mechanical properties and pore size distribution of these stones were examined before and after the aging test. The characteristics of the microcracks were quantified with fluorescence-impregnated thin sections. Durability and physico-mechanical characteristics of Ghaleh-khargushi rhyodacite are mainly influenced by preferentially oriented preexisting microcracks. Stress induced by salt crystallization led to the widening of preexisting microcracks in Ghaleh-khargushi rhyodacite, as confirmed by the pore size distributions before and after the aging test. The preexisting microcracks of Gorid andesite were attributed to the mechanical stress induced by contraction of lava during cooling. The number of transcrystalline microcracks was significantly increased after the aging test. The degree of plagioclase microcracking was proportional to its size. Durability of the studied stones depends on initial physico-mechanical properties, pore size distribution, and orientation of microcracks. Initial effective porosity is found to be a good indicator of the stones’ durability. Salt crystallization resulted in an increase in the effective porosity with a parallel decrease in the wave velocities. Surface microroughness parameters increased with the development of salt crystallization-induced microcracking. Gorid andesite showed higher quality and durability than Ghaleh-khargushi rhyodacite.