Models of travel demand with endogenous preference change and heterogeneous agents

In the literatures of regional science, urban economics, and urban development planning, a working assumption is that individuals respond to incentives and regulations, given their preferences. Models for planning and policy analyses are used to consider what might occur if the incentives or regulations were different. In these models, however, preferences are usually assumed to be given and stable, and agents are usually assumed to be homogeneous. This paper focuses on the implications of making preferences in models of policy implementation endogenously determined and time varying heterogeneous agents. We consider first the recent literature on intertemporal choice and preference change, which cuts across many disciplines, and more briefly the literature on norm-regarding behavior. We then elaborate a simple model of transportation demand—from a static to a dynamic orientation, from fixed and exogenously given preferences of strictly self-regarding agents to endogenously determined and policy-induced preferences of heterogeneous agents—and illustrate its characteristics with simple numerical examples.     

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Optimization Transmission Theory and Technical Pathways that Describe Multiscale Urban Agglomeration Spaces

Urban agglomerations are spatial entities that promote the development of ‘new urbanization' processes within China. In this context, the concept of ‘multiscale urban agglomeration spaces' encompasses three linked levels: macroscale urban agglomerations, mesoscale cities, and microscale urban centers. Applying a series of multidisciplinary integrated research methods drawn from geography, urban planning, and architecture, this paper reveals two intensive utilization laws that can be generalized to apply to multiscale urban agglomeration spaces, top-to-bottom ‘positive transmission' linkage and inside-to-outside ‘negative transmission' movement. This paper also proposes optimization transmission theory and policy decision technical pathways that can be applied to these three urban agglomeration spatial scales. Specific technical pathways of transmission include intensive expansion and simulated decision-making in macroscale urban agglomerations, ecology, production, and living space intensive layout and dynamic decision-making in mesoscale cities, and four cores(i.e., ‘single, ring, axis, and pole core') progressive linkage and intensive optimization decision-making in microscale urban centers. The theory and technical pathways proposed in this paper solve the technical problem of optimization and provide intensive methods that can be applied not only at the individual level but also at multiple scales in urban agglomeration spaces. This study also advances a series of comprehensive technical solutions that can be applied to both compact and smart growth cities as well as to urban agglomerations. Solid theoretical support is provided for the optimization of Chinese land development, urbanization, agricultural development, and ecological security.     

近半个世纪来气候变暖背景下黄河流域潜在蒸散量的变化(英文)

According to the meteorological observation data of 72 stations from 1960 to 2010 in the Huanghe (Yellow) River Watershed, China, the long-term variations of potential evapotranspiration, calculated in the modified Penman-Monteith model of Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, were presented, as well as the meteorological causes for the decrease of potential evapotranspiration were discussed. Since 1960, temperature has risen significantly and potential evapotranspiration a decreasing trend, which indicated the existence of "Evaporation paradox" in the Huanghe River Watershed. This phenomenon was not consistent spatially or temporally with the increase of temperature, potential evapotranspiration decreased in spring, summer and winter, mainly over most parts of Shanxi and Henan, and some parts of Gansu, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi. During the recent half century, the trends of temperature and potential evapotranspiration were negatively correlated at most of the stations, while precipitation and potential evapotranspiration exhibited a contrary trend. Calculated in multiple regressions, the contribution to potential evapotranspiration change of related meteorological factors was discussed, including mean pressure, maximum and minimum temperature, sunshine hours, relative humidity and average wind speed. The decrease of wind speed in the Huanghe River Watershed may be the dominating factor causing potential evapotranspiration decreasing.     

SORPTION AND DESORPTION CHARACTERISTICS OF CADMIUM BY FOUR DIFFERENT SOILS IN NORTHEAST CHINA

1IN TR O D U C TIO NA s a persistentand toxic pollutant, cadm ium (C d) canresultin m any adverse health effects in a variety oftis-suesand organssuch asthe lung,kidney,urinary,blad-der,pancreas,breast and prostate (SA TA R U G etal.,2003).C adm ium in so…     

宗教文化旅游对游客的影响研究 ——以武当山道教文化旅游为例

以武当山为研究案例地,通过游客问卷与访谈调查,采用SPSS18.0统计软件定量分析武当山旅游体验对游客认知、思想、行为意愿等的影响。研究结果表明,① 武当山游客的旅游动机有宗教朝圣、文化体验、娱乐放松及感情交流4类;② 宗教文化旅游影响游客对目的地的形象感知及对道教文化的认知、态度及践行意愿;③ 宗教文化旅游对游客的影响强弱因动机而不同,自强至弱依次为宗教朝圣、文化体验、感情交流及娱乐放松。     

基于N-KD树的空间点数据分组算法

随着科学技术的进步,地理空间数据的分析处理面临着数据量膨胀和计算量高速增长的双重挑战,为了解决海量数据处理速度慢的问题,本文针对空间分布不均匀的点数据,从数据并行的角度,以保持数据的空间邻近性及保证数据分组后各组数据量负载均衡为目标,提出基于N-KD树（Number-K Dimension Tree）数据动态分组的方法,其是一种面向实时变化（数据量和数据空间范围变化）的空间数据动态分组方法。该方法借鉴K-D树的创建和最临近点搜索的思想,通过方差判断数据分布稀疏程度,利用最临近点搜索方法处理边界点,实现空间范围的不均等切分,保证数据分组后各组数据量基本均衡。试验表明,该方法具有较好的动态分组效果与较高的计算效率;支持各种分布状态的空间点数据的分组;分组后各组数据量负载均衡;分组算法本身有支持并行、支持分布式协同工作模式的特点。     

南京市城市居民对乡村旅游发展的感知及旅游行为研究

运用问卷调查法和基于SPSS软件的统计分析法,以南京市为例,从城市居民感知视角考察乡村旅游的发展情况。从旅游偏好、旅游频率和空间分布等方面探讨城市居民的乡村旅游行为特征,并进一步分析了乡村旅游的知晓度、居民对各乡村旅游点开发水平的感知与其空间分布之间的相关关系,以及居民对乡村旅游发展总体印象与旅游频率之间的相关关系。在此基础上,提出南京市乡村旅游发展的有关对策与建议。     

冬季北极涛动和北极海冰变化对东亚气候变化的影响

本文简要回顾了冬季北极涛动 (北大西洋涛动 )和北极海冰面积变化对东亚气候变化的影响、研究中存在的问题以及目前亟待解决的科学问题。     

Assessing the impacts of ecological-living-productive land changes on eco-environmental quality in Xining City on Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,China

The Ecological-living-productive land(ELPL) classification system was proposed in an effort to steer China's land pattern to an ecological-centered path, with the development model shifting from a single function into more integrated multifunction land use. The focus is coordinating the man-land contradictions and developing an intensive, efficient and sustainable land use policy in an increasingly tense relationship between humans and nature. Driven by socioeconomic change and rapid population growth, many cities are undergoing urban sprawl, which involves the consumption of cropland and ecological land and threatens the ecological balance. This paper aims to quantitatively analyze the critical effects of ELPL changes on eco-environmental quality according to land use classification based on leading function of ecology, living and production from 1990 to 2015 with a case study of Xining City. Also, four future land use scenarios were simulated for2030 using the Future Land Use Simulation(FLUS) model that couples human and natural effects. Our results show a decrease in productive land(PL) and an increase in ecological land(EL) and living land(LL) in Xining City. Forestry ecological land(FEL) covered the top largest proportion; agriculture productive land(APL) showed the greatest reduction and urban and rural living land(U-RLL) presented a dramatic increase. The eco-environmental quality improved in 1990-2010, mainly affected by the conversion of APL to FEL and GEL. However, the encroachment of U-RLL into APL, other ecological land(OEL) and FEL was the main contributor to the decline in eco-environmental quality in 2010-2015 as well as the primary reason for the increase area of lower-quality. The Harmonious Development(HD)-Scenario, characterized by a rational allocation of LL and PL and a better eco-environment, would have implications for planning and monitoring future management of ELPL, and may represent a valuable reference for local policy-makers.