Application of fuzzy multi-attribute decision-making to select and to rank the post-mining land-use

The selection of an optimal reclamation method is one of the most important portions of the surface mining design. There are many factors in this problem which seriously influence decision-making. The fuzzy set theory was applied due to the effect of uncertain parameters involved in the decision-making process. Therefore, the fuzzy multi-attribute decision-making method was proposed. The aim of this study is to use the fuzzy technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution method for ranking the optimal post-mining land-use and the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process method in order to determine the weights of each criterion. This approach is applied to the surface coal mine by employing 28 criteria which influence the decision-making procedure. The TOPSIS and AHP methods have been the most used methods of mining decision-making and demonstrated their ability to make critical decisions. By evaluating the alternatives and considering effective criteria with proposed methods, agriculture is the optimal post-mining land-use.     

Image acquisition for detection of vegetation change based on long-term rainfall in an arid rangeland in Western NSW, Australia

Research on vegetation change, rangeland assessment or desertification modelling in drylands using remotely sensed image acquisition normally ignores long-term rainfall as a key criterion in image acquisition. This article will present a novel procedure for image acquisition to investigate vegetation change in a degraded rangeland located in Western New South Wales (Western NSW) Australia. Western NSW experienced an unusually prolonged period of rainfall deficit during the 2000s compared to the 1970, 1980 and 1990s. For this purpose, vegetation changes were assessed using Landsat images supported by field survey. The long-term rainfall variability (42-year) was regarded as a key element in image acquisition. Within the timeframe of the 2000s, 2 years with 25 % lower than the 42-year mean annual rainfall were selected. These images were then compared to an image captured in a year (1988) with rainfall closer to the 42-year mean annual rainfall. Two change detection techniques were used, namely univariate image differencing and GIS approaches. Classification of the produced images was pursued based on the digital numbers (supervised) of ground-checked points within the reference image whilst considering the histogram (unsupervised) of each digital number of the produced image. This research emphasized rainfall as a key variable in image acquisition for vegetation change analysis in rangelands. Image acquisition based on long-term rainfall data allowed for the assessment of changes in perennial plant cover by eliminating the effects of extreme rainfall variation on annual grass dynamics and removing extreme reflections caused by their temporary high photosynthetic activity.     

Physical modeling into outflow hydrographs and breach characteristics of homogeneous earthfill dams failure due to overtopping

The main objective of the present study is to introduce new empirical equations for the determination of breach geometrical dimensions and peak outflow discharge(Q_p).Therefore,a historic failure database of 109 embankments was collected and examined.The most important factors that affect the breach evolution,including grading size,hydraulic,and outflow characteristics are also studied.Some of the parameters used for the determination of Q_p and average breach width(Bave)have a significant effect on the erosion process,but they are less reflected in the technical literature.To study the behavior of noncohesive soils during overtopping,15 physical tests were performed at the laboratory,and the effects of interfering parameters were investigated.The experimental output hydrograph was used to simulate the hydrographs resulting from the failure of real dams,and recent artificial intelligence techniques along with linear and nonlinear regression models were employed.The area-time analysis of the laboratory hydrographs shows that the soil particle size and the characteristics of reservoir-basin significantly affect the rate of breach formation and outflow discharge.New relationships are introduced,based on the breach characteristics,by a combination of historical and experimental data,as well as case studies conducted on the hypothetical failure of 10 operational dams.The mathematical model is also used to simulate the process of breach evaluation.Based on statistical indices,comparison of the results,and sensitivity analysis,the developed equations can better express the susceptibility of materials to erosion and their application can minimize downstream vulnerabilities.     

Teleconnections between oceanic–atmospheric indices and drought over Iran using quantile regressions

ABSTRACT

In this research, the Bayesian quantile regression model is applied to investigate the teleconnections between large oceanic–atmospheric indices and drought standardized precipitation index (SPI) in Iran. The 12-month SPI time series from 138 synoptic stations for 1952–2014 were selected as the drought index. Three oceanic–atmospheric indices, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and the Multivariate El Niño/Southern Oscillation Index (MEI), were selected as covariates. The results show that NAO has the weakest impact on drought in different quantiles and different regions in Iran. La Niña conditions amplified droughts through all SPI quantiles in western, Caspian Sea coastal regions and southern regions. The positive phase of MEI significantly modulates low SPI quantiles (i.e. drought conditions) throughout the Zagros region, Caspian Sea coastal regions and southern regions. The study shows that the effect of large oceanic–atmospheric indices have heterogeneous impacts on extreme dry and wet conditions.     

Erosion Resistance of HPTRM Strengthened Levee from Combined Wave and Surge Overtopping

Post-Katrina investigations revealed that most earthen levee damage occurred on the levee crest and land-side slope as a result of either wave overtopping, storm surge overflow, or a combination of both. This study addresses erosion resistance performance of a levee strengthening technique—high performance turf reinforcement mat under combined wave and surge overtopping conditions using full-scale flume tests as well as erosion function apparatus (EFA) tests. Based on the results of full-scale flume tests, an “upper limit” of soil loss is observed for certain flow conditions. Erosion rate was presented as a function of velocity and freeboard. The effect of duration of overtopping on the erosion depth is also determined. The results of EFA tests indicate that the presence of grass roots substantially improve the critical velocity and soil erodibility.     

Comparison of the performance of power law and probability distributions in the frequency analysis of flood in Dez Basin,Iran

Determination of the return period of design flood depends on the nature of the project and the consequences of the flood and is based on economic criteria, human casualties, and hydrological factors. Underestimation of flood might result in casualties and economic damages, while the overestimation leads to capital waste. Therefore, in this research, the flood frequency analysis of Dez Basin, Iran was conducted within the period of 1956–2012 using power law approach together with ordinary distributions, including normal, log normal, Pearson type III, exponential, gamma, generalized extreme value, Nakagami, Rayleigh, logistic, generalized logistic, generalized Pareto, and Weibull distributions. The power law comes from the fractal nature of earth science phenomena such as precipitation and runoff. Accordingly, in this research the partial duration flood series of five hydrometric stations in Dez Basin were extracted using power law with the intervals of 7, 14, 30, and 60 days and then compared with the annual maxima. The results indicated that the annual maxima were not suitable for frequency analysis of the flood in Dez Basin, and the 30-day partial duration series obtained from the power law has a better correspondence with the flow and properties of the Dez Basin. The independence and stationarity of the 30-day partial duration series were examined by Wald–Wolfowitz test, confirming the independence of the considered series. Next, the power distribution and the typical statistical distributions were fitted onto the data of the flood in Dez Basin, with the performance of each distribution being investigated using normalized root-mean-square error and Nash–Sutcliffe criteria. The results revealed that in the SDZ and TPB stations, power distribution had a better performance than other considered distributions. Moreover, in the SDS, TPS, and TZ stations the power distribution stood in the second rank in terms of the best distribution. As the performance of power distribution in the estimation of the flood in Dez Basin has been very satisfactory and calculation of its parameters and its application is easier than ordinary probability distributions, thus it can be suggested as the superior distribution for flood frequency analysis in Dez Basin.     

Active faulting and natural hazards in Armenia, eastern Turkey and northwestern Iran

Active fault zones of Armenia, SE Turkey and NW Iran present a diverse set of interrelated natural hazards. Three regional case studies in this cross-border zone are examined to show how earthquakes interact with other hazards to increase the risk of natural disaster. In northern Armenia, a combination of several natural and man-made phenomena (earthquakes, landslides and unstable dams with toxic wastes) along the Pambak-Sevan-Sunik fault (PSSF) zone lowers from 0.4 to 0.2–0.3g the maximum permissible level (MPL) of seismic hazard that may induce disastrous destruction and loss of life in the adjacent Vanadzor depression.

In the Ararat depression, a large active fault-bounded pull-apart basin at the junction of borders of Armenia, Turkey, Iran and Azerbaijan, an earthquake in 1840 was accompanied by an eruption of Ararat Volcano, lahars, landslides, floods, soil subsidence and liquefaction. The case study demonstrates that natural hazards that are secondary with respect to earthquakes may considerably increase the damage and the casualties and increase the risk associated with the seismic impact.

The North Tabriz–Gailatu fault system poses a high seismic hazard to the border areas of NW Iran, eastern Turkey, Nakhichevan (Azerbaijan) and southern Armenia. Right-lateral strike–slip motions along the North Tabriz fault have given rise to strong earthquakes, which threaten the city of Tabriz with its population of 1.2 million.

The examples illustrate how the concentration of natural hazards in active fault zones increases the risk associated with strong earthquakes in Armenia, eastern Turkey and NW Iran. This generally occurs across the junctions of international borders. Hence, the transboundary character of active faults requires transboundary cooperation in the study and mitigation of the natural risk.     

The effect of land use change on soil and water quality in northern Iran

Rapid urbanization has led to extensive land-use changes,particularly in developing countries.This research is aimed to investigate the role of land use and its effect on soil and water quality in Ziarat watershed focusing on four land uses:forest,pasture,cultivated and urban development.Soil samples were taken from a depth of 0-30 cm on each land use and were analyzed by completely randomized split-plot design in two geographical directions.Results showed that bulk density(BD),electrical conductivity(EC),pH,calcium carbonate equivalent(CCE),and soil particle density(DS) of the soil samples in pastures,cultivated and urban areas increased and the mean weight diameter(MWD),soil porosity(F),organic carbons(OC),total nitrogen(TN),exchangeable cations(Ca 2+,Mg 2+,K +,Na +),cation exchange capacity(CEC) and soil microbial respirations(SMR) decreased,respectively in comparison with the forest soils.For water quality evaluations,sodium adsorption ratio(SAR),electrical conductivity(EC),pH,total dissolved solids(TDS),bicarbonate(HCO 3),chloride(Cl),total hardness(TH),calcium(Ca 2+),potassium(K +),sodium(Na +) and magnesium(Mg 2+) were investigated in two areas:Nahrkhoran and Abgir stations.Results showed that the concentration of TDS,EC and HCO 3 in Naharkhoran station is higher than that in Abgir station.On the other hand,the concentration of TDS,EC and HCO 3 in Abgir station are the relatively higher due to its location.Total hardness had the same trend during the study years except in the last three years;however,TH showed an increase of 25% TH in Naharkhoran for the last two years.Cl,K + and SAR in Naharkhoran station increased by 61%,22%,78% and 56% respectively,in comparison with Abgir station.This study demonstrated that the trend of soil degradation and mismanagement of land use may increase the frequency of urban floods and human health problems.