Water vapor transport and cross-equatorial flow over the Asian-Australia monsoon region simulated by CMIP5 climate models

The summer mean water vapor transport (WVT) and cross-equatorial flow (CEF) over the Asian-Australian monsoon region simulated by 22 coupled atmospheric-oceanic general circulation models (AOGCMs) from the World Climate Research Programme’s Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) were evaluated. Based on climatology of the twentieth-century simulations, most of models have a reasonably realistic representation of summer monsoon WVT characterized by southeast water vapor conveyor belt over the South Indian Ocean and southwest belt from the Arabian Sea to the East Asian. The correlation coefficients between NCEP reanalysis and simulations of BCC-CSM1-1, BNU-ESM, CanESM2, FGOALS-s2, MIROC4h and MPI-ESM-LR are up to 0.8. The simulated CEF depicted by the meridional wind along the equator includes the Somali jet and eastern CEF in low atmosphere and the reverse circulation in upper atmosphere, which were generally consistent with NCEP reanalysis. Multi-model ensemble means (MME) can reproduce more reasonable climatological features in spatial distribution both of WVT and CEF. Ten models with more reasonable WVT simulations were selected for future projection studies, including BCC-CSM1-1, BNU-ESM, CanESM2, CCSM4, FGOALS-s2, FIO-ESM, GFDL-ESM2G, MRIOC5, MPI-ESM-LR and NorESM-1M. Analysis based on the future projection experiments in RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6 and RCP8.5 show that the global warming forced by different RCP scenarios will results in enhanced WVT over the Indian area and the west Pacific and weaken WVT in the low latitudes of tropical Indian Ocean.     

Intercomparison between observed and simulated variability in global ocean heat content using empirical mode decomposition, part I: modulated annual cycle

This study proposes a new more precise and detailed method to examine the performance of IPCC AR4 models in simulation of nonlinear variability of global ocean heat content (OHC) on the annual time scale during 1950–1999. The method is based on the intercomparison of modulated annual cycle (MAC) of OHC and its instantaneous frequency (IF), derived by Empirical Mode Decomposition and Hilbert-Huang Transformation. In addition to indicate the general agreement in gross features globally between models and observation, our results point out the problems both in observation and in modeling. In the well observed Northern Hemisphere, models exhibit extremely good skills to capture nonlinear annual variability of OHC. The simulated MACs are highly correlated with observations (>0.95) and the IF of MACs varies coherently with each other. However, in sparsely observed Southern Hemisphere (SH), even though the simulated MACs highly correlate with observations, the IF shows significant difference. This comparisons show that the models exhibit coherent variability of IF of MACs in SH with each other, but not with observations, revealing the problems in the objective analyzed dataset using sparse observations. In the well observed tropic region, the models lack the coherence with the observations, indicating inadequate physics of the models in the tropical area. These results illustrate that the proposed method can be used routinely to identify problems in both models and in observation of the global ocean as a critical component of global climate change.     

海表Ekman流不稳定性致新型次级环流

海洋上混合层中的次级环流可通过物质和能量的垂直输运和混合过程把海洋表层的热量、动量与物质携带到次表层,对海洋上层次级环流生成机制的研究可以丰富对上层海洋的理解和认识。文中利用线性稳定性理论讨论了经典海表Ekman流的不稳定性,提出Ekman流的不稳定性可生成一种新型的次级环流。这种次级环流的空间尺度与雷诺数、Ekman流的垂向衰减速率、水平湍黏性系数与垂向湍黏性系数比值等密切相关,尺度范围从数十米到数千米。数十米量级的次级环流其垂向结构以及次级环流流轴与主流场偏角都与Langmuir环流的特征极为相似,是Langmuir环流形成机制的一种新解释。千米量级的次级环流能够解释黄海浒苔的条带分布。此外,所得次级环流的流轴与主流之间的偏角与科氏力有显著关系,北半球次级环流流轴偏向主流左侧,南半球反之。     

The turbidity maxima of the northern Jiangsu shoal-water in the Yellow Sea,China

The Yellow Sea general circulation model coupled to a sediment transport model with and without surface waves was implemented to study sediment distribution and resuspension in the northern Jiangsu shoal-water (NJSW) in March and April 2006–2008. With surface wave, the general features of model simulated turbidity maxima agreed well with the MODIS remote sensing data. Without wave, the turbidity maxima moved offshore with much reduced suspended sediment concentration (SSC). This demonstrated that surface waves played a dominant role over the tides to form the turbidity maxima in the region. The study also found that NJSW exported sediments to the Yellow Sea and East China Sea through offshore and southern boundaries. As March and April 2008 was a wind anomalous year with a decreased wind speed over last three years, the wind generated waves in the region were also reduced, leading to lower sediment resuspension and SSC in that year.     

2010年冬末春初“回南天”环流背景场特征分析——以惠州市为例

利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和MICAPS实况数据,对广东惠州市2010年冬末春初的2次较严重的、持续时间较长的“回南天”天气过程进行总结分析.结果显示:发生“回南天”的前期一般出现较长时间的低温阴雨天气,使得地面及墙面等物体表面温度较低,空气湿度较大; “回南天”期间,500 hPa北支系统偏北,冷空气难以南下,南支波动活跃,华南地区主要处于南支槽前,其前强盛的西南暖湿气流为“回南天”带来了充足的水汽条件,底层地面冷高压北收,西南低槽不断更替发展,华南地区主要处于地面低压槽前侧,且地面风速较小,对流层低层有较强的逆温层存在.     

波浪水槽中振动格栅湍流特征的实验研究

在波浪水槽中采用格栅振动的方式产生湍流,研究振动格栅产生湍流的特征。本文开展了4类实验,调节测量点到格栅平均位置的距离、格栅振动频率、振动冲程,采用ADV测量水体中单点的脉动速度。实验结果显示,湍流强度在一定范围内随离格栅距离的增大而逐渐减小,随着振动频率的增大而呈幂指数增大,随着振动冲程的增大而呈幂指数增大。同时还比较了两个不同格栅产生湍流的不同。结果显示,在波浪水槽中,振动格栅产生湍流的强度还与格栅的长度尺寸有关,这与在水箱中振动格栅产生湍流的特征不同。     

星载双频风场雷达热带气旋降雨区测风模拟

基于大气辐射传输理论分别建立Ku波段和C波段的降雨模型,模拟热带气旋降雨区洋面的雷达回波并反演了洋面10 m风场,用于研究降雨对测风的影响以及风云三号双频风场雷达 (WFR) 的测风能力。分析表明:回波的衰减或增强取决于降雨衰减项和后向散射项的相对大小;热带气旋的降雨使反演风速偏小,风向精度降低,Ku波段相对于C波段更易受影响,在高风速 (超过30 m·s-1) 条件下,可达5~20 m·s-1的负风速偏差。反演结果表明:双频反演的新方法能够结合Ku波段与C波段的优势,双频最大似然估计 (MLE) 方法在分辨率上优于C波段单频反演,相对Ku单频反演能降低降雨对测风的衰减作用,结合双频MLE方法和C波段单频反演优势的分区反演方法可以显著减小降雨偏差,提高风速反演精度,在有风云三号湿度计同步观测的条件下,是提高热带气旋降雨区测风精度的有效手段。     

Verification of an operational ocean circulation-surface wave coupled forecasting system for the China's seas

An operational ocean circulation-surface wave coupled forecasting system for the seas off China and adjacent areas(OCFS-C) is developed based on parallelized circulation and wave models. It has been in operation since November 1, 2007. In this paper we comprehensively present the simulation and verification of the system, whose distinguishing feature is that the wave-induced mixing is coupled in the circulation model. In particular, with nested technique the resolution in the China's seas has been updated to(1/24)° from the global model with(1/2)°resolution. Besides, daily remote sensing sea surface temperature(SST) data have been assimilated into the model to generate a hot restart field for OCFS-C. Moreover, inter-comparisons between forecasting and independent observational data are performed to evaluate the effectiveness of OCFS-C in upper-ocean quantities predictions, including SST, mixed layer depth(MLD) and subsurface temperature. Except in conventional statistical metrics, non-dimensional skill scores(SS) is also used to evaluate forecast skill. Observations from buoys and Argo profiles are used for lead time and real time validations, which give a large SS value(more than 0.90). Besides, prediction skill for the seasonal variation of SST is confirmed. Comparisons of subsurface temperatures with Argo profiles data indicate that OCFS-C has low skill in predicting subsurface temperatures between 100 m and 150 m. Nevertheless, inter-comparisons of MLD reveal that the MLD from model is shallower than that from Argo profiles by about 12 m, i.e., OCFS-C is successful and steady in MLD predictions. Validation of 1-d, 2-d and 3-d forecasting SST shows that our operational ocean circulation-surface wave coupled forecasting model has reasonable accuracy in the upper ocean.     

基于z坐标海洋模式的全球正压潮波数值模拟研究

The performance of a z-level ocean model, the Modular Ocean Model Version 4(MOM4), is evaluated in terms of simulating the global tide with different horizontal resolutions commonly used by climate models. The performance using various sets of model topography is evaluated. The results show that the optimum filter radius can improve the simulated co-tidal phase and that better topography quality can lead to smaller rootmean square(RMS) error in simulated tides. Sensitivity experiments are conducted to test the impact of spatial resolutions. It is shown that the model results are sensitive to horizontal resolutions. The calculated absolute mean errors of the co-tidal phase show that simulations with horizontal resolutions of 0.5° and 0.25° have about 35.5% higher performance compared that with 1° model resolution. An internal tide drag parameterization is adopted to reduce large system errors in the tidal amplitude. The RMS error of the best tuned 0.25° model compared with the satellite-altimetry-constrained model TPXO7.2 is 8.5 cm for M_2. The tidal energy fluxes of M_2 and K_1 are calculated and their patterns are in good agreement with those from the TPXO7.2. The correlation coefficients of the tidal energy fluxes can be used as an important index to evaluate a model skill.     

A review of progress in coupled ocean-atmosphere model developments for ENSO studies in China

El Nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) is the strongest interannual signal that is producedby basinscale processes in the tropical Pacific,with significant effects on weather and climate worldwide.In the past,extensive and intensive international efforts have been devoted to coupled model developments for ENSO studies.A hierarchy of coupled ocean-atmo sphere models has been formulated;in terms of their complexity,they can be categorized into intermediate coupled models(ICMs),hybrid coupled models(HCMs),and fully coupled general circulation models(CGCMs).ENSO modeling has made significant progress over the past decades,reaching a stage where coupled models can now be used to successfully predict ENSO events 6 months to one year in advance.Meanwhile,ENSO exhibits great diversity and complexity as observed in nature,which still cannot be adequately captured by current state-of-the-art coupled models,presenting a challenge to ENSO modeling.We primarily reviewed the long-term efforts in ENSO modeling continually and steadily made at different institutions in China;some selected representative examples are presented here to review the current status of ENSO model developments and applications,which have been actively pursued with noticeable progress being made recently.As ENSO simulations are very sensitive to model formulations and process representations etc.,dedicated efforts have been devoted to ENSO model developments and improvements.Now,different ocean-atmosphere coupled models have been available in China,which exhibit good model performances and have already had a variety of applications to climate modeling,including the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6).Nevertheless,large biases and uncertainties still exist in ENSO simulations and predictions,and there are clear rooms for their improvements,which are still an active area of researches and applications.Here,model performances of ENSO simulations are assessed in terms of advantages and disadvantages with these differently formulated coupled models,pinpointing to the areas where they need to be further improved for ENSO studies.These analyses provide valuable guidance for future improvements in ENSO simulations and predictions.