用数字云图确定热带气旋强度的人－机对话系统

使用２４４６张卫星展宽云图资料样本，根据云系结构（眼，中心密蔽云区、螺旋云带，结构紧密度）和热带气旋强度的密切相关，求出回归方程、作为估计热带气旋强度的基本公式，并在计算机上实现，建立了确定热带气旋强度的人－机对话系统。经过业务试运行。获得了满意的结果。     

北京市持续重污染天气分析

通过对2004-2008年北京市空气持续重污染过程的统计及其对非沙尘型持续重污染天气形势的特征分析,得到以下结论：持续重污染过程具有明显的季节分布特征,主要包括春季沙尘型污染和秋冬季节非沙尘型污染;非沙尘型持续重污染过程期间多对应着大雾、轻雾、霾、烟等低能见度天气,过程后期对应的天气现象多为大风或降水天气。其中大雾天气更易引发长时间持续的空气重污染事件。非沙尘型持续重污染的天气形势特点为：高空多为纬向环流,850 hPa多为暖脊控制,地面多处于弱气压场,鞍形场型污染尤为严重。北京持续重污染多对应区域性污染。     

莆田文旦柚气候品质认证

为了提升莆田市文旦柚的品牌效应和市场竞争力,利用文旦柚种植区历年区域自动站气象观测资料及果实品质检测数据,通过分析影响文旦柚品质的关键气象因子和主要气象灾害,构建文旦柚气候品质评估指标,采用专家打分法和层次分析法,确定气候适宜性因子和致灾因子的权重,建立文旦柚气候品质评估模型,计算气候品质指数并进行量化等级划分,开展文...     

FY-1C可见光通道衰减分析及订正试验

利用FY-1C连续两年的遥感资料，以敦煌辐射校正场为分析区，系统分析了FY-1C可见光、近红外通道的衰减特征，开展了通道衰减订正试验。分析结果表明，FY-1C除可见光通道1衰减强烈外，其它各可见光、近红外通道衰减性能稳定。利用统计分析法，可以建立定标系数衰减订正量随时间的变化关系。订正后的定标系数与2000年辐射校正场外定标实验结果一致性很好。更新后的定标系数可以有效克服通道衰减带来的通道反射率测值误差，提高FY-1C可见光、近红外通道遥感资料定量应用的精度。     

STRUCTURE FEATURES AND COMPOSITE ANALYSIS OF CONVECTIVE CELLS IN A WARM SECTOR HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OVER SOUTHERN CHINA

This paper uses the ARW-WRF model to carry out a numerical simulation of a warm-sector heavy rainfall event over southern China on the 22–23 May, 2014. A composite analysis method was used to analyze the evolution process and structural features of the convective cells on a convection line during this rainfall event. This analysis identified three stages: (1) Stage of activation: the equivalent potential temperature surfaces as lower layers start to bulge and form warm cells and weak vertical convective cloud towers which are subject to the impact of low-level warm moist updrafts in the rainfall sector; (2) Stage of development: the warm cells continue to bulge and form warm air columns and the convective cloud towers develop upwards becoming stronger as they rise; (3) Stage of maturity: the warm air columns start to connect with the stable layer in the upper air; the convective cloud tower will bend and tilt westward with each increasing in height, and the convection cell is characterized by a “crescent-shaped echo” above the 700hPa plane. During this stage the internal temperature of the cell is higher than the ambient temperature and the dynamic structural field is manifested as intensive vertical upward movement. The large-value centers of the northerly and westerly winds in the middle layer correspond to the warm moist center in the cells and the relatively cold center south of the warm air column. Further analysis shows that the formation of the “crescent-shaped” convective cell is associated with horizontal vorticity. Horizontal vorticity in the center and west of the warm cell experiences stronger cyclonic and anticyclonic shear transformation over time; this not only causes the original suborbicular cell echo shape to develop into a crescent-like shape, but also makes a convection line consisting of cells that develop to the northwest.     

降水对江浙沪PM_(2.5)的清除效率研究

为了解不同程度的降水对江浙沪地区大气PM_(2.5)的清除作用,搜集了2014—2016年该地区41个城市的降水和PM_(2.5)观测数据,通过对比2 a非降水和全时段PM_(2.5)平均浓度的差异,发现前者显著高于后者,说明降水对该地区PM_(2.5)具有清除作用。利用降水前与降水期间PM_(2.5)的浓度差异作为降水对PM_(2.5)的清除率,降水后与降水期间的浓度差异作为雨后浓度回升的增加率,分别研究了目标区域不同时期、不同降雨量以及不同降雨时长对PM_(2.5)的清除效果。结果显示:(1)与江浙沪南部地区不同的是,北部地区降水清除率与降水前浓度存在正相关,降水后浓度的增加与当地的排放量呈正相关。(2)当降水量为30 mm或者降水时长为36 h时,清除率增幅减缓,说明降水对PM_(2.5)的清除效率存在着阈值。     

伊犁河谷初冬降水条件下风廓线雷达评估分析

对伊犁河谷地区初冬降水条件下风廓线雷达资料评估其数据获取率并与探空资料进行对比分析,定义两者风向偏差在10°以内或风速偏差在1 m/s范围的样本为有效样本,分别用E_v和E_d表示风速有效样本比率(风速有效样本数/总样本数)和风向有效样本比率(风向有效样本数/总样本数)。结果显示:超过80%数据获取率的高度,降雨时为3000 m,降雪时达到预设2000 m;降雪时E_v和E_d均比无降水时高,且降雪量大小与风廓线的探测高度呈正相关,降雪量大小对E_d有明显影响,对E_v无明显影响;比较不同高度数据,降雪时0～3 km范围的E_v和E_d值均比无降水时高30%左右,无降水时3～5 km范围的E_d接近100%。     

Assimilating QuikSCAT Ocean Surface Winds with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model for Surface Wind-Field Simulation over the Chukchi/Beaufort Seas

To achieve a high-quality simulation of the surface wind field in the Chukchi/Beaufort Sea region, quick scatterometer (QuikSCAT) ocean surface winds were assimilated into the mesoscale Weather Research and Forecasting model by using its three-dimensional variational data assimilation system. The SeaWinds instrument on board the polar-orbiting QuikSCAT satellite is a specialized radar that measures ice-free ocean surface wind speed and direction at a horizontal resolution of 12.5 km. A total of eight assimilation case studies over two five-day periods, 1–5 October 2002 and 20–24 September 2004, were performed. The simulation results with and without the assimilation of QuikSCAT winds were then compared with QuikSCAT data available during the subsequent free-forecast period, coastal station observations, and North American Regional Reanalysis data. It was found that QuikSCAT winds are a potentially valuable resource for improving the simulation of ocean near-surface winds in the Chukchi/Beaufort Seas region. Specifically, the assimilation of QuikSCAT winds improved, (1) offshore surface winds as compared to unassimilated QuikSCAT winds, (2) sea-level pressure, planetary boundary-layer height, as well as surface heat fluxes, and (3) low-level wind fields and geopotential height. Verification against QuikSCAT data also demonstrated the temporal consistency and good quality of QuikSCAT observations.     

塔中人工绿地与自然沙面辐射平衡对比研究

使用2014年5—9月塔克拉玛干沙漠腹地塔中大气环境观测实验站地表辐射观测资料,分析了塔中人工绿地与自然沙面在各种典型天气条件下的辐射分量特征差异。结果表明:人工绿地与自然沙面辐射平衡各分量最小值均出现在夜间,最大值出现在中午前后,总辐射和反射辐射日最大值出现在12:00;大气长波辐射日变化振幅较小,地面长波辐射日变化呈现不对称分布。晴天,人工绿地与自然沙面总辐射和净辐射变化幅度较小,自然沙面总辐射高于人工绿地;阴天,地面长波辐射略有减小,绿地大气长波辐射略有增加,总辐射和反射辐射减少,净辐射的变化受总辐射的影响,但减弱幅度小于总辐射;沙尘暴天气下,沙尘对辐射各分量影响明显,辐射各分量日变化不规则,人工绿地与自然沙面总辐射被明显削弱,日变化波动大。     

热带气旋“Malakas”与中纬度系统的相互作用及其结构变化

本文利用中尺度数值模式WRF和LAGRANTO轨迹模式对2010年变性台风"Malakas"进行数值模拟和轨迹分析,分析了Malakas在变性过程中与中纬度系统的相互作用,以及在相互作用过程中Malakas的结构变化特征。结果表明:Malakas变性过程经历了三个阶段:(1)高层扰动加强期,高层的正位涡产生的气旋性环流使低层Malakas中心北部的斜压带西侧产生负的温度平流,表现为冷空气的入侵;(2)Malakas和中纬度系统相互作用时期,台风北上导致斜压带出现,深对流的爆发使低层暖湿气流沿着斜压带上升,快速上升气流中的潜热释放导致低PV空气向对流层上部净输送,在其北部高层重新构建出一个脊;(3)Malakas变性成温带气旋,残存的台风内核与斜压带逐渐合并,负的位涡平流带着非绝热外出流驱动了下游最初脊的构建,加速并且固定了中纬度急流,并整体放大了上层Rossby波模式。