四川地区ECWMF模式晴雨预报订正试验研究

利用2016—2019年ECWMF模式降水预报及对应时段的观测资料,设计了最优百分位(OP)、最优TS评分(OTS)、概率匹配(PM)、分区OTS和分区PM-OTS融合共5种方案,对数值模式晴雨预报展开了订正试验.结果表明:(1)OP和PM方案的晴雨订正阈值为静态阈值,OTS方案为动态阈值.5种方案的阈值均适用于A区(盆地、阿坝州和甘孜州北部),其中PM、分区PM-OTS融合方案阈值更适用于数值模式湿偏差明显的B区(甘孜州南部和攀西地区).(2)各方案对ECWMF模式晴雨预报均有明显的订正能力,24 h时效订正效果最优,B区订正效果优于A区,秋冬季节优于春夏季节.(3)分区后的订正方案晴雨评分优于分区前,其中分区PM-OTS融合方案评分最优.个例和批量试验表明,A区各方案订正效果相当,B区以PM、分区OTS和分区PM-OTS融合3种方案订正后的雨区分布与实况更接近,其中分区PM-OTS融合方案订正效果最优.     

The First Global Carbon Dioxide Flux Map Derived from TanSat Measurements

Space-borne measurements of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations provide global observation constraints for top-down estimates of surface carbon flux.Here,the first estimates of the global distribution of carbon surface fluxes inferred from dry-air CO_2 column (XCO_2) measurements by the Chinese Global Carbon Dioxide Monitoring Scientific Experimental Satellite (Tan Sat) are presented.An ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF) data assimilation system coupled with the GEOS-Chem global chemistry transport model is used to optimally fit model simulations with the Tan Sat XCO_2 observations,which were retrieved using the Institute of Atmospheric Physics Carbon dioxide retrieval Algorithm for Satellite remote sensing (IAPCAS).High posterior error reduction (30%–50%) compared with a priori fluxes indicates that assimilating satellite XCO_2 measurements provides highly effective constraints on global carbon flux estimation.Their impacts are also highlighted by significant spatiotemporal shifts in flux patterns over regions critical to the global carbon budget,such as tropical South America and China.An integrated global land carbon net flux of 6.71±0.76 Gt C yr~(-1) over12 months (May 2017–April 2018) is estimated from the Tan Sat XCO_2 data,which is generally consistent with other inversions based on satellite data,such as the JAXA GOSAT and NASA OCO-2 XCO_2 retrievals.However,discrepancies were found in some regional flux estimates,particularly over the Southern Hemisphere,where there may still be uncorrected bias between satellite measurements due to the lack of independent reference observations.The results of this study provide the groundwork for further studies using current or future Tan Sat XCO_2 data together with other surfacebased and space-borne measurements to quantify biosphere–atmosphere carbon exchange.     

Application of Backward Nonlinear Local Lyapunov Exponent Method to Assessing the Relative Impacts of Initial Condition and Model Errors on Local Backward Predictability

Initial condition and model errors both contribute to the loss of atmospheric predictability. However, it remains debatable which type of error has the larger impact on the prediction lead time of specific states. In this study, we perform a theoretical study to investigate the relative effects of initial condition and model errors on local prediction lead time of given states in the Lorenz model. Using the backward nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent method, the prediction lead time,also called local backward predictability limit(LBPL), of given states induced by the two types of errors can be quantitatively estimated. Results show that the structure of the Lorenz attractor leads to a layered distribution of LBPLs of states. On an individual circular orbit, the LBPLs are roughly the same, whereas they are different on different orbits. The spatial distributions of LBPLs show that the relative effects of initial condition and model errors on local backward predictability depend on the locations of given states on the dynamical trajectory and the error magnitudes. When the error magnitude is fixed, the differences between the LBPLs vary with the locations of given states. The larger differences are mainly located on the inner trajectories of regimes. When the error magnitudes are different, the dissimilarities in LBPLs are diverse for the same given state.     

水生态屏障适宜宽度界定研究进展

在总结水生态屏障研究历程的基础上,对水生态屏障的概念进行了探讨,提出了水生态屏障的定义。从河流、湖泊、水库3种主要水生态屏障类型说明水生态屏障的主要功能及适宜宽度研究进展,并从生态学、水文学、地理学、遥感学的技术应用评述了水生态屏障宽度的界定方法。目前,对水生态屏障适宜宽度的标准还缺乏统一的认识,流域尺度下水库生态屏障适宜宽度的界定是水生态屏障宽度界定面临的难点问题,提出综合水文学、生态学、环境科学及地形、遥感、地理信息等多学科理论及技术手段构建流域尺度的生态水文模型是界定水生态屏障及其水库生态屏障适宜宽度的有效方法。     

三峡水库调节作用对长江近河口段水文水动力特性影响

为了评估三峡水库蓄水对长江感潮河段水文水动力特性的影响,建立了具有预测功能的水动力模型。考虑径流与潮流之间的相互作用,模型在只有上边界流量过程的条件下可以给出下边界的潮位过程。在此基础上应用一维河网非恒定流数学模型,对三峡水库蓄水前后长江近河口段大通—徐六泾的水流运动进行了10年的数值模拟。统计分析结果表明,水库调蓄作用对感潮河段各站的潮位累积频率及水文水动力因素的年内过程变化影响甚大。     

渤中凹陷石南斜坡区古近系中深层优质储层特征

运用薄片镜下观察、物性分析、扫描电镜、X衍射及阴极发光等分析手段,对渤中凹陷石南斜坡区古近系中深层储层特征和成岩作用进行了研究.结果表明,渤中凹陷石南斜坡区古近系中深层储层砂岩类型以岩屑长石砂岩和长石岩屑砂岩为主,部分为湖相碳酸盐与陆源碎屑混合沉积.孔隙类型以粒内溶孔和粒间溶孔为主,储集性好,孔隙度一般为20％左右,渗透率为100×10-3 μm2～1 000×10-3 μm2,为高孔—高渗储层.区内古近系中深层储层中发育有3个次生孔隙发育带,分别为2 500 m～2 800 m次生孔隙发育带、3 200 m～3 400 m次生孔隙发育带和3 700 m～3 900 m次生孔隙发育带.以贫石英、富长石为特征的储层具备了在中深层形成次生孔隙的基础,孔隙演化与成岩演化具有耦合关系,成岩演化是控制储层发育至关重要的因素,溶蚀作用是形成中深部优质储层最重要的建设性成岩作用.     

南秦岭蚂蝗沟黑云斜长片麻岩LA-ICP-MS锆石U-Pb年代学及其大地构造意义

秦岭各变质岩群的研究是探讨秦岭造山带形成演化的重要内容,针对产出于南秦岭蚂蝗沟的黑云斜长片麻岩进行岩石学分析,其主要矿物为石英、斜长石、黑云母,并含有少量石榴石.样品轻稀土富集,重稀土亏损,具有Eu较强烈负异常和Ce基本无异常的特点,微量元素总量差异不大,且Nb,Ti显著亏损,应用尼格里指数对Si投影图和La/Yb对EREE投影图判断其为副变质岩,原岩为杂砂岩且具太古后碎屑沉积岩的特点.应用LA ICP-MS锆石U-Pb定年方法测试,结果显示锆石共有四期年龄,其谐和年龄分别为780 Ma±8.8 Ma,608 Ma±2.8 Ma,450 Ma±5.5 Ma,205.1 Ma±2.3 Ma,分别是对晋宁运动第二幕、加里东运动早期、加里东运动晚期和印支运动的响应.四期年龄分别独立形成于不同区域,在最后一次构造事件发生时才共同沉积再经历弱变质作用形成黑云斜长片麻岩,变质年龄为202 Ma±5.5 Ma,与最后一期构造热事件同是印支运动作用的结果,为秦岭造山带构造演化提供证据,对认识其构造运动具有一定的重要意义.     

桂东北水岩坝钨锡矿田白云母40Ar-39Ar年代学研究及其地质意义

水岩坝钨锡矿田位于桂东北姑婆山花岗岩体西南边缘,其成矿作用与姑婆山花岗岩体密切相关。为精确厘定其成矿年代,本文首次对烂头山矿床含钨石英脉中的白云母进行了40 Ar-39 Ar测年,获得白云母坪年龄为162.5±1.2 Ma,相应的等时线年龄为162.0±1.9Ma。表明其成矿年龄为162Ma左右,与姑婆山花岗岩体主体年龄一致,为燕山早期岩浆作用的产物。该成果为深入认识桂东北钨锡成矿年代学格架及成矿动力学背景提供了新的年代学证据。     

泗水南部矿泉水分布特征及开发建议

根据泗水县地下水调查与监测,结合已有资料,经过综合分析,提出了对泗水南部灰岩地区矿泉水矿田的认识,重点介绍了泗水矿泉水矿田的地质背景,形成分布特征,同时提出了几点开发建议,为进一步开发和研究泗水矿泉水矿田指明了重要的思路和方向。     

微量元素分析在判别沉积介质环境中的应用——以鄂尔多斯盆地西部中区晚三叠世为例

以鄂尔多斯盆地西部中区晚三叠世样品中微量元素测试结果为基础,选用对沉积介质环境反映比较敏感的锶(Sr)、铜(Cu)、钡(Ba)、铀(U)、钛(Ti)、钒(V)、镍(Ni)等微量元素指标,分析研究区地层中微量元素含量及其比值与沉积介质环境之间的对应关系,进而探讨鄂尔多斯盆地西部中区晚三叠世的沉积介质环境。结果表明,鄂尔多斯盆地西部中区晚三叠世延长组长9-长7期基本为温湿气候且变得越来越温暖潮湿;长9-长7期为微咸水相的淡水环境,长7期盐度含量略有增加;长9、长8期水体的氧化还原条件比较正常,长7期变为厌氧环境;长9-长7期垂向上水体分层不强。