Caribbean hurricanes: changes of intensity and track prediction

The meteorological conditions of hurricanes passing near Puerto Rico (18N, 68W) are analyzed using composite daily reanalysis and satellite data. When an intense hurricane is present, the regional circulation is dominated by upper easterly flow over the Caribbean and central Atlantic and a surge of low-level westerly anomalies across the tropics. Warm SST anomalies extend along the coast of Venezuela, doubling the convective energy available to Caribbean hurricanes. Intensifying hurricanes tend to propagate westward with an atmospheric ridge over the Gulf Stream, in an environment with aerosol optical depth <0.6. Hurricanes form and strengthen in the east-shear phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation. Sinking motions and dry air appear in an anti-cyclonic gyre behind intensifying hurricanes. Numerical model 48-h forecasts of Caribbean hurricane tracks are analyzed over the period 2000–2010. A “slow right” bias is found east of Puerto Rico in comparison with observed.     

Regional stratigraphy and distribution of epigenetic stratabound celestine, fluorite, barite and Pb–Zn deposits in the MVT province of northeastern Mexico

Northeastern Mexico hosts numerous epigenetic stratabound carbonate-hosted low-temperature hydrothermal deposits of celestine, fluorite, barite and zinc-lead, which formed by replacement of Mesozoic evaporites or carbonate rocks. Such deposits can be permissively catalogued as Mississippi Valley-type (MVT) deposits. The deposits studied in the state of Coahuila are associated with granitic and metasedimentary basement highs (horsts) marginal or central to the Mesozoic Sabinas Basin. These horsts controlled the stratigraphy of the Mesozoic basins and subsequently influenced the Laramide structural pattern. The Sabinas Basin consists of ~6,000-m-thick Jurassic to Cretaceous siliciclastic, carbonate and evaporitic series. The MVT deposits are mostly in Barremian and in Aptian-Albian to Cenomanian formations and likely formed from basinal brines that were mobilized during the Laramide orogeny, although earlier diagenetic replacement of evaporite layers (barite and celestine deposits) and lining of paleokarstic cavities in reef carbonates (Zn–Pb deposits) is observed. Fluid inclusion microthermometry and isotopic studies suggest ore formation due to mixing of basinal brines and meteoric water. Homogenization temperatures of fluid inclusions range from 45°C to 210°C; salinities range from 0 to 26 wt.% NaCl equiv., and some inclusions contain hydrocarbons or bitumen. Sulfur isotope data suggest that most of the sulfur in barite and celestine is derived from Barremian to Cenomanian evaporites. Regional geology and a compilation of metallogenic features define the new MVT province of northeastern Mexico, which comprises most of the state of Coahuila and portions of the neighboring states of Nuevo León, Durango and, perhaps extends into Zacatecas and southern Texas. This province exhibits a regional metal zonation, with celestine deposits to the south, fluorite deposits to the north and barite and Zn–Pb deposits mostly in the central part.     

Model prediction capacity of ephemeral gully evolution in conservation tillage systems

Ephemeral gully (EG) erosion has an important impact on agricultural soil losses and increases field surface hydrology connectivity and transport of pollutants to nearby water bodies. Watershed models including an EG component are scarce and not yet properly evaluated. The objective of this study is to evaluate the capacity of one such tool, AnnAGNPS, to simulate the evolution of two EG formed in a conservation tillage system. The dataset for model testing included runoff measurements and EG morphological characteristics during 3 years. Model evaluation focused on EG evolution of volume, width, and length model outputs, and included calibration and testing phases and a global sensitivity analysis (GSA). While the model did not fully reproduce width and length, the model efficiency to simulate EG volume was satisfactory for both calibration and testing phases, supporting the watershed management objectives of the model. GSA revealed that the most sensitive factors were EG depth, critical shear stress, headcut detachment exponent coefficient b, and headcut detachment leading coefficient a. For EG outputs the model was additive, showing low sensitivity to interactions between the inputs. Prediction of EG spatial evolution on conservation tillage systems requires improved development of gully erosion components, since many of the processes were developed originally for traditional tillage practices or larger channel systems. Our results identify the need for future research when EG form within conservation tillage systems, in particular to study gully headcut, soil erodibility, and width functions specific to these practices.     

Radio imaging of the Subaru/XMM–Newton Deep Field – II. The 37 brightest radio sources

We study the 37 brightest radio sources in the Subaru/ XMM–Newton Deep Field. We have spectroscopic redshifts for 24 of 37 objects and photometric redshifts for the remainder, yielding a median redshift z _med for the whole sample of   z _med≃ 1.1  and a median radio luminosity close to the 'Fanaroff–Riley type I/type II (FR I/FR II)' luminosity divide. Using mid-infrared (mid-IR) ( Spitzer MIPS 24 μm) data we expect to trace nuclear accretion activity, even if it is obscured at optical wavelengths, unless the obscuring column is extreme. Our results suggest that above the FR I/FR II radio luminosity break most of the radio sources are associated with objects that have excess mid-IR emission, only some of which are broad-line objects, although there is one clear low-accretion-rate object with an FR I radio structure. For extended steep-spectrum radio sources, the fraction of objects with mid-IR excess drops dramatically below the FR I/FR II luminosity break, although there exists at least one high-accretion-rate 'radio-quiet' QSO. We have therefore shown that the strong link between radio luminosity (or radio structure) and accretion properties, well known at z ∼ 0.1, persists to z ∼ 1. Investigation of mid-IR and blue excesses shows that they are correlated as predicted by a model in which, when significant accretion exists, a torus of dust absorbs ∼30 per cent of the light, and the dust above and below the torus scatters ≳1 per cent of the light.     

Late Quaternary vegetation and climate dynamics in central-eastern Brazil: insights from a ~35k cal a bp peat record in the Cerrado biome

The late Quaternary evolution of central-eastern Brazil has been under-researched. Questions remain as to the origin of the Cerrado, a highly endangered biome, and other types of vegetation, such as the Capões – small vegetation islands of semi-deciduous and mountain forests. We investigated the factors that influenced the expansion and contraction of the Cerrado and Capões during the late Quaternary (last ~35 ka), using a multi-proxy approach: stable isotopes (δ¹³C, δ¹⁵N), geochemistry, pollen and multivariate statistics derived from a peat core (Pinheiro mire, Serra do Espinhaço Meridional). Five major shifts in precipitation, temperature, vegetation and landscape stability occurred at different timescales. Our study revealed that changes in the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) seem to have been coeval with these shifts: from the Late Glacial Maximum to mid-Holocene the SACZ remained near (~29.6 to ~16.5k cal a bp ) and over (~16.5 to ~6.1 k cal a bp ) the study area, providing humidity to the region. This challenges previous research which suggested that climate was drier for this time period. At present, the Capões are likely to be a remnant of a more humid climate; meanwhile, the Cerrado biome seems to have stablished in the late Holocene, after ~3.1 k cal a bp .     

A framework for creating and validating a non-linear spectrum-biomass model to estimate the secondary succession biomass in moist tropical forests

Uncertainties remain in the use of remote sensing technologies to provide validated model-derived estimates of the biomass of the secondary succession (SS) forests in the Amazon Basin. The objectives of this study were to develop a modeling framework for creating a valid spectrum-biomass model to estimate the SS biomass, to assess the utility of the framework and the accuracy and validity of the model, and to identify the model’s determinants. Data sources for this study include 1992–1993 vegetation inventory data and 1991 Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) data on the Altamira region of Para, Brazil, and 1994–1995 vegetation inventory data and 1994 Landsat TM data on the nearby Bragantina region. The allometric approach was used to estimate the biomass of the sampled sites based on the vegetation inventory data. A framework for the spectrum-biomass regression model was developed based on the estimated biomass of the sampled sites and the Landsat data. The framework includes (1) the pooling of data from Bragantina and the use of ANCOVA to justify this approach; (2) image calibration; (3) biomass data age-adjustment, (4) selection of independent variables, (5) regression model development, and (6) model assessment and validation. The cubic regression model with TM Band5-related predictors was found to best fit the data as evidenced by an adjusted R-squared value of 0.865, mean square error (MSE) of the model, and the analysis of residuals. Residual analysis showed that the model might yield a better estimation on a lower biomass values than on higher biomass values. In addition, further analyses identified several determinants that can impact the accuracy of the spectrum-biomass model. ANCOVA confirmed that the relationship between the biomass and the spectrum is independent of the Altamira and Bragantina regions, and that it was appropriate to pool sampled data from both regions in the proposed model. The model development methodology and the model produced from this research will be of value to researchers using the spectrum-biomass modeling approaches to estimate the biomass and study the SS rates in moist tropical forests.     

Threshold of motion of bivalve and gastropod shells under oscillatory flow in flume experiments

The threshold of motion of non-fragmented mollusc shells was studied for the first time under oscillatory flow. In this regard, flume experiments were used to investigate the threshold of motion of three bivalve and three gastropod species, two typical mollusc classes of coastal coquina deposits. The sieve diameters ranged from 2·0 to 15·9 mm. These experiments were performed on a flat-bottom setup under regular non-breaking waves (swell) produced by a flap-type wave generator. The critical Shields values for each species of mollusc were plotted against the sieve and nominal diameter. Moreover, the dimensionless Corey shape factor of the shells was evaluated in order to investigate the effect of mollusc shell shapes on the threshold of motion. According to their critical Shields parameter, the mollusc threshold data under oscillatory flow present smaller values than the siliciclastic sediments when considering their sieve diameter. In addition, the mollusc datasets are below the empirical curves built from siliciclastic grain data under current and waves. When considering the nominal diameter, the critical Shields parameter increases and the mollusc data are closer to siliciclastic sediments. Bivalves, which have a flat-concave shape (form factor: 0·27 to 0·37), have a higher critical Shields parameter for smaller particles and more uniform datasets than the gastropod scattered data, which have a rounded shape (form factor: 0·58 to 0·62) and have varied morphologies (ellipsoidal, conical and cubic). The comparison between previous current-driven threshold data of bioclastic sediment motion and the data of mollusc whole shells under oscillatory flow shows a fair correlation on the Shields diagram, in which all datasets are below the mean empirical curves for siliciclastic sediments. These findings indicate that the shape effect on the transport initiation is predominant for smaller shells. The use of the nominal diameter is satisfactory to improve the bioclastic and siliciclastic data correlation.     

Fluoride Biomonitoring around a Large Aluminium Smelter Using Foliage from Different Tree Species

In order to study the pollution gradient in the vicinity of a large aluminium production facility in Patagonia (Argentina), a passive biomonitoring was performed employing foliage from three tree species. Primary scope was to identify pollution gradients and to select suitable tree species which can be used as biomonitor plants in the study area. Therefore, leaves of Eucalyptus rostrata, Populus hybridus and different needle ages of Pinus radiata were collected at different distances from the industry and the fluoride concentration was analysed in washed and unwashed samples in order to determine the amount of external fluoride. Washing reduced the F‐concentrations by 24, 39 and 51% on average in E. rostrata, P. hybridus and P. radiata, respectively, indicating that species‐specific characteristics determine the accumulation and wash‐off of dust‐associated fluorine. F‐concentrations varied from 6 to 3652 ppm F in unwashed samples indicating a steep pollution gradient in the study area. The influence of F‐emissions was discernible in all samples up to a distance of 3500 m from the smelter. E. rostrata accumulated more fluorine than the other species at equal distance from the emission source. The present study confirms that aluminium smelting results in high F deposition in the study area. Establishing a biomonitor network around large emitters is suitable and feasible to evaluate the efficiency of air control measures.