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21.
不同降水天气系统自然降水特征及火箭人工增雨潜力分析 总被引:4,自引:1,他引:4
统计分析了1981~2000年20年中15种降水天气系统影响下河北地区自然降水特征,并对火箭人工增雨的潜力进行了初步分析。统计分析表明:西来槽类、高空低涡类、冷锋、切变线和副高后部等天气系统是影响河北地区的主要降水系统,其降雨量和降雨日数占到了90%以上;不同的天气系统在不同季节对降水的贡献有所不同,其中西来槽类的降雨量和降雨日数均居首位,开展人工增雨催化作业机会最多;夏季降水系统最强,云水资源最为丰富,人工增雨潜力很大,是开展火箭人工增雨催化作业的最佳季节,春秋两季增雨潜力明显比夏季小,冬季最小;倒槽、副高后部、台风低压、高空低涡类和气旋类等系统最强,日降雨量和单位面积降雨量明显比其它系统大,尤其对蓄水型火箭增雨作业十分有利。 相似文献
22.
The Application of ARGO Data to the Global Ocean Data Assimilation Operational System of NCC 总被引:11,自引:0,他引:11 下载免费PDF全文
1. Introduction It is well-known that the state of ocean plays very important role in the climate change. But there is a paucity of the ocean observation data. The data distri- bution in the space, time and different components is very inhomogeneous, even in some areas, there are no any observation data. Hence, it brings some diffcul- ties to the scientists to study many problems relevant to ocean. This situation has been being changed since ARGO (Array for Real-time Geostrophic Oceanogra-… 相似文献
23.
24.
2-D crustal Poisson’s ratio from seismic travel time inversion in Changbaishan Tianchi volcanic region 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Based on the inversion method of 2D velocity structure and interface, the crustal velocity structures of P-wave and S-wave
along the profile L
1 are determined simultaneously with deep seismic sounding data in Changbaishan Tianchi volcanic region, and then its Poisson’s
ratio is obtained. Calculated results show that this technique overcomes some defects of traditional forward calculation method,
and it is also very effective to determine Poisson’s ratio distribution of deep seismic sounding profile, especially useful
for study on volcanic magma and crustal fault zone. Study result indicates that there is an abnormally high Poisson’s ratio
body that is about 30 km wide and 12 km high in the low velocity region under Tianchi crater. Its value of Poisson’s ratio
is 8% higher than that of surrounding medium and it should be the magma chamber formed from melted rock with high temperature.
There is a high Poisson’s ratio zone ranging from magma chamber to the top of crust, which may be the uprise passage of hot
substance. The lower part with high Poisson’s ratio, which stretches downward to Moho, is possibly the extrusion way of hot
substance from the uppermost mantle. The conclusions above are consistent with the study results of both tomographic determination
of 3D crustal structure and magnetotelluric survey in this region.
Foundation item: Key Project from China Earthquake Administration and the Project (95-11-02-01) from Ministry of Science and Technology (2001DIA10003).
Contribution No. RCEG200401, Geophysical Exploration Center, China Earthquake Administration. 相似文献
25.
Discrete element method modeling of inherently anisotropic rocks under uniaxial compression loading 下载免费PDF全文
A new numerical approach is proposed in this study to model the mechanical behaviors of inherently anisotropic rocks in which the rock matrix is represented as bonded particle model, and the intrinsic anisotropy is imposed by replacing any parallel bonds dipping within a certain angle range with smooth‐joint contacts. A series of numerical models with β = 0°, 15°, 30°, 45°, 60°, 75°, and 90° are constructed and tested (β is defined as the angle between the normal of weak layers and the maximum principal stress direction). The effect of smooth‐joint parameters on the uniaxial compression strength and Young's modulus is investigated systematically. The simulation results reveal that the normal strength of smooth‐joint mainly affects the behaviors at high anisotropy angles (β > 45°), while the shear strength plays an important role at medium anisotropy angles (30°–75°). The normal stiffness controls the mechanical behaviors at low anisotropy angles. The angle range of parallel bonds being replaced plays an important role on defining the degree of anisotropy. Step‐by‐step procedures for the calibration of micro parameters are recommended. The numerical model is calibrated to reproduce the behaviors of different anisotropic rocks. Detailed analyses are conducted to investigate the brittle failure process by looking at stress‐strain behaviors, increment of micro cracks, initiation and propagation of fractures. Most of these responses agree well with previous experimental findings and can provide new insights into the micro mechanisms related to the anisotropic deformation and failure behaviors. The numerical approach is then applied to simulate the stress‐induced borehole breakouts in anisotropic rock formations at reduced scale. The effect of rock anisotropy and stress anisotropy can be captured. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
26.
Validating the ability of the discontinuous deformation analysis method to model normal P‐wave propagation across rock fractures 下载免费PDF全文
The effects of fractures on wave propagation problems are increasingly abstracting the attention of scholars and engineers in rock engineering field. This study aims to fully validate the ability of discontinuous deformation analysis (DDA) to model normal P‐wave propagation across rock fractures. The effects of a single fracture and multiple parallel fractures are all tested. The results indicate that DDA can accurately reflect the fracture effects, including the fractures stiffness, the fracture spacing and the fracture number, and the effects of incident wave frequency on one‐dimensional P‐wave propagation problems. Thus, DDA is able to deal well with normal incident P‐wave propagation problems. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
27.
Distinguishing streamflow trends caused by changes in climate,forest cover,and permafrost in a large watershed in northeastern China 下载免费PDF全文
Understanding how rivers respond to changes in land cover, climate, and subsurface conditions is critical for sustainably managing water resources and ecosystems. In this study, long‐term hydrologic, climate, and satellite data (1973–2012) from the Upper Tahe River watershed (2359 km2) in the Da Hinggan Mountains of northeast China were analysed to quantify the relative hydrologic effects of climate variability (system input) and the combined influences of forest cover change and permafrost thaw (system characteristics) on average annual streamflow (system response) using 2 methods: the sensitivity‐based method and the Kendall–Theil robust line method. The study period was subdivided into a forest harvesting period (1973–1987), a forest stability period (1988–2001), and a forest recovery period (2002–2012). The results indicated that the combined effects of forest harvesting and permafrost thaw on streamflow (+ 47.0 mm) from the forest harvesting period to the forest stability period was approximately twice as large as the effect associated with climate variability (+20.2 mm). Similarly, from the forest stability period to the forest recovery period, the decrease in average annual streamflow attributed to the combined effects of forest recovery and permafrost thaw (?38.0 mm) was much greater than the decrease due to climate variability (?22.2 mm). A simple method was used to separate the distinct impacts of forest cover change and permafrost thaw, but distinguishing these influences is difficult due to changes in surface and subsurface hydrologic connectivity associated with permafrost thaw. The results highlight the need to consider multiple streamflow drivers in future watershed and aquatic ecosystem management. Due to the ecological and hydrological susceptibility to disturbances in the Da Hinggan Mountains, forest harvesting will likely negatively impact ecohydrological processes in this region, and the effects of forest species transition in the forest recovery process should be further investigated. 相似文献
28.
A nonstationary extreme value distribution for analysing the cessation of karst spring discharge 下载免费PDF全文
Yan Liu Yonghong Hao Yonghui Fan Tongke Wang Xueli Huo Youcun Liu Tian‐Chyi J. Yeh 《水文研究》2014,28(20):5251-5258
The effects of climate change and population growth in recent decades are leading us to consider their combined and potentially extreme consequences, particularly regarding hydrological processes, which can be modeled using a generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. Most of the GEV models were based on a stationary assumption for hydrological processes, in contrast to the nonstationary reality due to climate change and human activities. In this paper, we present the nonstationary generalized extreme value (NSGEV) distribution and use it to investigate the risk of Niangziguan Springs discharge decreasing to zero. Rather than assuming the location, scale, and shape parameters to be constant as one might do for a stationary GEV distribution analysis, the NSGEV approach can reflect the dynamic processes by defining the GEV parameters as functions of time. Because most of the GEV model is designed to evaluate maxima (e.g. flooding, represented by positive numbers), and spring discharge cessation is a ?minima’, we deduced an NSGEV model for minima by applying opposite numbers, i.e. negative instead of positive numbers. The results of the model application to Niangziguan Springs showed that the probability of zero discharge at Niangziguan Springs will be 1/80 in 2025, and 1/10 in 2030. After 2025, the rate of decrease in spring discharge will accelerate, and the probability that Niangziguan Springs will cease flowing will dramatically increase. The NSGEV model is a robust method for analysing karst spring discharge. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
29.
Trend and extreme occurrence of precipitation in a mid‐latitude Eurasian steppe watershed at various time scales 下载免费PDF全文
Xixi Wang Xiaomin Yang Tingxi Liu Fengling Li Ruizhong Gao Limin Duan Yanyun Luo 《水文研究》2014,28(22):5547-5560
The confounding effects of step change invalidate the stationarity assumption of commonly used trend analysis methods such as the Mann–Kendall test technique, so previous studies have failed to explain inconsistencies between detected trends and observed large precipitation anomalies. The objectives of this study were to (1) formulate a trend analysis approach that considers nonstationarity due to step changes, (2) use this approach to detect trends and extreme occurrences of precipitation in a mid‐latitude Eurasian steppe watershed in North China, and (3) examine how runoff responds to precipitation trends in the study watershed. Our results indicate that annual precipitation underwent a marginal step jump around 1995. The significant annual downward trend after 1994 was primarily due to a decrease in summer rainfall; other seasons exhibited no significant precipitation trends. At a monthly scale, July rainfall after 1994 exhibited a significant downward trend, whereas precipitation in other months had no trend. The percentage of wet days also underwent a step jump around 1994 following a significant decreasing trend, although the precipitation intensity exhibited neither a step change nor any significant trend. However, both low‐frequency and high‐frequency precipitation events in the study watershed occurred more often after than before 1994; probably as either a result or an indicator of climate change. In response to these precipitation changes, the study watershed had distinctly different precipitation‐runoff relationships for observed annual precipitations of less than 300 mm, between 300 and 400 mm, and greater than 400 mm. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
30.
Surface roughness and slope gradient are two important factors influencing soil erosion. The objective of this study was to investigate the interaction of surface roughness and slope gradient in controlling soil loss from sloping farmland due to water erosion on the Loess Plateau, China. Following the surface features of sloping farmland in the plateau region, we manually prepared rough surfaces using four tillage practices (contour drilling, artificial digging, manual hoeing, and contour plowing), with a smooth surface as the control measure. Five slope gradients (3°, 5°, 10°, 15°, and 20°) and two rainfall intensities (60 and 90 mm/hr) were considered in the artificial rainfall simulation experiment. The results showed that the runoff volume and sediment yield increased with increasing slope gradient under the same tillage treatment. At gentle slope gradients (e.g., 3° and 5°), the increase in surface roughness prevented the runoff and sediment production, that is, the surface roughness reduced the positive effect of slope gradient on the runoff volume and sediment yield to a certain extent. At steep slope gradients, however, the enhancing effect of slope gradient on soil erosion gradually increased and surpassed the reduction effect of surface roughness. This study reveals the existence of a critical slope gradient that influences the interaction of surface roughness and slope gradient in controlling soil erosion on sloping farmland. If the slope gradient is equal to or less than the critical value, an increase in surface roughness would decrease soil erosion. Otherwise, the increase in surface roughness would be ineffective for preventing soil erosion. The critical slope gradient would be smaller under higher rainfall intensity. These findings are helpful for us to understand the process of soil erosion and relevant for supporting soil and water conservation in the Loess Plateau region of China. 相似文献