Multi-scale Incremental Analysis Update Scheme and Its Application to Typhoon Mangkhut (2018) Prediction

In the traditional incremental analysis update(IAU) process, all analysis increments are treated as constant forcing in a model’s prognostic equations over a certain time window. This approach effectively reduces high-frequency oscillations introduced by data assimilation. However, as different scales of increments have unique evolutionary speeds and life histories in a numerical model, the traditional IAU scheme cannot fully meet the requirements of short-term forecasting for the damping of hig...     

1959—2020年江西省持续区域性高温过程特征

利用江西省81个国家气象站气温观测资料,综合考虑高温过程的强度、发生面积和持续时间等要素,运用江西省持续区域性高温过程的判别方法和指标,分析1959—2020年江西省持续区域性高温过程的时空分布及变化特征。结果表明:江西省共发生持续区域性高温过程271次,最强高温过程出现在2003年7月8日—8月10日,累计影响范围4.79×10^(6) km^(2),高温综合指数达到4.27。江西省持续区域性高温过程发生强度和频次较多的区域主要位于东北部和中部;历年发生频率最高为8次/a,其整体呈增加趋势。江西省持续区域性高温过程的年最强过程指数呈“先减小后增大”趋势,1993年以来其强度明显增加。     

Changes in daily climate extremes in the arid area of northwestern China

There has been a paucity of information on trends in daily climate and climate extremes, especially for the arid region. We analyzed the changes in the indices of climate extremes, on the basis of daily maximum and minimum air temperature and precipitation at 59 meteorological stations in the arid region of northwest China over the period 1960–2003. Twelve indices of extreme temperature and six indices of extreme precipitation are examined. Temperature extremes show a warming trend with a large proportion of stations having statistically significant trends for all temperature indices. The regional occurrence of extreme cool days and nights has decreased by ?0.93 and ?2.36 days/decade, respectively. Over the same period, the occurrence of extreme warm days and nights has increased by 1.25 and 2.10 days/decade, respectively. The number of frost days and ice days shows a statistically significant decrease at the rate of ?3.24 and ?2.75 days/decade, respectively. The extreme temperature indices also show the increasing trend, with larger values for the index describing variations in the lowest minimum temperature. The trends of Min Tmin (Tmax) and Max Tmin (Tmax) are 0.85 (0.61) and 0.32 (0.17)?°C/decade. Most precipitation indices exhibit increasing trends across the region. On average, regional maximum 1-day precipitation, annual total wet-day precipitation, and number of heavy precipitation days and very wet days show insignificant increases. Insignificant decreasing trends are also found for consecutive dry days. The rank-sum statistic value of most temperature indices exhibits consistent or statistically significant trends across the region. The regional medians after 1986 of Min Tmin (Tmax), Max Tmin (Tmax), warm days (nights), and warm spell duration indicator show statistically more larger than medians before 1986, but the frost days, ice days, cool days (nights), and diurnal temperature range reversed. The medians of precipitation indices show insignificant change except for consecutive dry days before and after 1986.     

青藏高原东部与其北侧热力差异与高原季风及长江流域夏季降水的关系

利用1961—2011年NCEP/NCAR逐月再分析资料及中国584个地面观测站的逐日降水资料,分析了夏季青藏高原及其附近地区大气热源对青藏高原夏季风及中国夏季降水的影响。结果表明,夏季青藏高原主体东部与其以北地区存在明显的热力差异,对青藏高原夏季风有显著的影响,由此定义了一个青藏高原东部与其北侧热力差异指数。当青藏高原东部与其北侧热力差异指数偏大时,青藏高原夏季风偏强,长江流域的夏季降水偏多;反之,当指数偏小时,青藏高原季风偏弱,长江流域的夏季降水偏少;进一步研究发现,当指数偏大时,南北气流在长江流域辐合,使得来自太平洋上的暖湿水汽与来自高纬度地区的干冷空气在长江流域汇合,增大了该地区的水汽含量,同时由于辐合上升运动加强,导致长江流域降水偏多;当指数偏小时,长江流域上空低层西南风增强,来自印度洋与太平洋上的暖湿水汽更多地往华北地区输送,长江流域的水汽含量减少,而该地区的辐合上升运动也明显减弱,降水随之减少。     

近50a阿勒泰地区大风的环流分型及预报

利用1961~2010年阿勒泰地区7个观测站地面大风观测资料,统计分析了阿勒泰地区大风日数的时空分布规律及变化特征,结合2007~2012年35个大风个例的历史天气图、ECMWF和T213数值预报产品,进一步分析了大风天气环流特征,总结归纳出不同天气形势下大风预报指标和预报方法,并进行检验。结果表明:阿勒泰地区年大风日数为30 d,春季最多,冬季最少;各县市大风日数年际变化差异较大,均呈明显减少趋势,就全区而言,其气候倾向率为-8.5 d/10 a;受地形显著影响,西北部为大风多发区,东部最少。根据环流形势特征,该区大风主要分为冷锋型、动量下传型、回流型、中小尺度型4种类型。根据归纳的大风预报指标及预报方法,得出该地区2011~2012年大风预报准确率为77%,效果较好,在预报业务中具有重要的参考价值。     

2021年达州“5.14”冰雹过程特征分析

利用常规气象资料、自动站资料、多普勒雷达资料,分析了2021年5月14日四川达州一次冰雹天气的环流形势及雷达回波特征。结果表明：此次过程发生在阶梯槽影响下,西南急流和低层辐合提供了水汽和动力条件,北方冷平流和近地层冷空气的入侵为冰雹的发生提供了触发机制;强上升气流造成多个对流单体强烈发展,是此次降雹的基础;ET、单体质心、VIL的跃升到下降、强冰雹概率及中气旋对冰雹天气的识别和预警具有较好的指示意义。     

数字地图制图理论方法与应用

计算机辅助地图制图使地图学产生了深刻的技术革命,数字制图技术使地图从阅读、分析、处理、使用,到表现形式、制作出版等都发生了巨大的变化,全球定位系统、数字摄影测量、遥感技术、地理信息系统的发展,又使数字地图制图面临新的机遇和挑战。本文论述了数字地图制图的理论基础、技术方法与传统地图制图的关系和数字地图制图的应用及发展前景。     

Rheological and structural properties of sea cucumber Stichopus japonicus during heat treatment

Changes in tissue structure, rheological properties and water content of raw and heated sea cucumber meat were studied. Sea cucumber Stichopus japonicus was heated at 25°C , 70°C and 100°C water for 5 min. The structural changes were observed using a light microscope and the rheological parameters (rupture strength, adhesive strength and deformation) determined using a texture meter. Microscopic photograph revealed that the structural change of heated meat was greater than that of raw meat. The rupture strength, adhesive strength and deformation of raw meat were smaller than those of the heated meat. Meanwhile, rheological parameters showed positive correlation with heating temperature. These changes are mainly caused by thermal denaturation and gelatinization of collagen during heating. These changes were also evidenced in observations using a light microscope and differential scanning calorimetry.     

Phenological study of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Sargassum thunbergii</Emphasis> (Fucales,Phaeophyta) in Lidao Bay,Rongcheng, China

We conducted a phenological evaluation of Sargassum thunbergii, a common algal species, along the coast of Lidao Bay, Rongcheng, China. The local S. thunbergii population entered a maturation period from early June to mid-August, when seawater temperature was 14.4 to 25.1°C. Our results suggest an increase in temperature and day length during this period initiated thalli maturation. Inhabitants of the low tidal zone had higher thalli length and biomass compared with those from the mid-and high tidal zones. We observed a switch in the length frequency distribution and contribution of length classes to biomass between the small (<20 cm) and long (20–79.9 cm) length classes at the time of thallus maturity. This suggests there is a trade-offbetween sexual reproduction and vegetative regeneration.