The day-to-day monitoring of the 2011 severe drought in China

Dry/wet condition has a large interannual variability. Decision-makers need to know the onset, duration, and intensity of drought, and require droughts be monitored at a daily to weekly scale. However, previous tools cannot monitor drought well at this short timescale. The Palmer Drought Severity Index has been found dissatisfactory in monitoring because of its complexity and numerous limitations. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) always asks for a timescale, and precipitation is averaged over the period of the scale. Because of this, the SPI cannot be used for short scales, e.g., several days, and what it tells is the overall drought situation of the period. The weighted average of precipitation (WAP) developed by Lu (Geophys Res Lett 36:L12707, 2009) overcomes the deficiency of the SPI; it does not require a timescale, and can provide the drought (and flood) extent of each day. Therefore, the WAP can monitor drought at scales from daily to weekly, monthly, and any longer scale, and is really “flexible and versatile for all timescales”. In this study, the standardized WAP (SWAP) is used to monitor the 2011 drought over China. Drought swept the country during the year from north to south and from east to west. In spring, a once-in-a-fifty-year drought occurred over the Yangtze River basin and the southern region, causing serious shortage of drinking water for people and livestock, as well as tremendous losses in agriculture and the shipping industry. Results show that the SWAP, with its monthly mean plots, can well reproduce the seasonal shift of the 2011 drought across the country. The animation of daily plots demonstrates that the SWAP would have been able to monitor the day-to-day variation of the spring drought around the Yangtze River basin. It can provide the details of the drought, such as when the drought emerged over the region, how long it maintained there (though drought area may move back and forth with extension and contraction of the area), and when the drought relieved over the basin.     

高精度时空信息崩滑坡灾害监测技术

我国部分地区地质灾害爆发频率高,多年来崩滑坡、泥石流等高危险性地质灾害严重威胁我国人民财产与生命安全。因此,地质灾害及时预警一直是我国在应急方面亟待解决的难题。随着北斗、GPS等全球卫星导航系统的建设组网,GNSS技术逐渐成为当前提供时空位置信息的重要手段,具有数据实时性、设备低功耗、搭建便捷化等特性,成为解决地质灾害监测与预警的理想技术手段。本文利用BDS+GPS+GLONASS时空信息数据,构建了面向地质灾害监测的中长基线毫米级精度的崩滑坡监测解算方法,确定了双差观测的载波相位解算模型。最后在重庆新浦区域展开试验应用,实现了基于高精度时空信息的毫米级滑坡灾害的监测与预警。为预计该区域的地质灾害提供了数据支持,为人民的生产生活提供了技术保障。     

基于历史数据的黄海浒苔爆发规模预测

依据黄海浒苔初始覆盖面积及最大覆盖面积的历史数据,选取温度、光强、降水3种对于浒苔生长扩散最重要的影响因子,本文提出并建立了基于BP神经网络确定转换系数R的浒苔覆盖面积预测模型,可在浒苔出现初期即实现对本年度浒苔最大覆盖面积的模拟预测,并通过历史数据进行验证。结果表明,所预测的浒苔最大爆发情况与真实情况相符,研究成果可为浒苔的应急准备工作争取更多的时间提供一定参考。     

耦合GF-2遥感影像与街景影像的广州市城中村识别

及时准确地获取城中村的空间分布及其环境质量信息对于优化城市空间、改善人居环境具有重要意义。本文以广州市越秀区为例,提出了耦合GF-2高分遥感影像和百度街景影像的城中村识别方法。首先,从街景影像中提取越秀区的街道空间品质特征;其次,在对高分遥感影像预处理并进行多尺度分割的基础上计算光谱、形状、纹理、场景特征和建筑结构5类共计23个特征;最后,融合两种影像的特征用于构建随机森林分类器进行城中村识别。结果表明,基于高分影像和基于街景影像的城中村识别整体精度分别为94.5%和85.7%,Kappa系数分别为0.58和0.31,而两者融合后的分类精度和Kappa系数为96.1%和0.67;其中基于街景影像获取的度量街道空间品质的5个指标贡献了31.6%的特征重要性。鸟瞰视野高分影像和人本视角街景影像提供的信息综合互补,构建了更有区分度的特征空间,减少了城中村的错分现象。本文证实了高分影像和街景影像在特征尺度的融合提升了城中村识别精度。街景影像中的信息可以融入到高分遥感影像等数据源中,辅助进行城中村等非正规居住空间的识别。     

祁连山冻土区水合物DK3和DK6钻孔中微生物脂肪酸特征及意义

利用脂肪酸法分析祁连山冻土带水合物区DK3(含水合物)与DK6(不含水合物)钻孔岩心中微生物多样性。本研究获得C12到C24二十六种脂肪酸(FA),可以分成直链饱和脂肪酸(SSFA),支链饱和脂肪酸(BSFA),单键不饱和脂肪酸(MUFA),环丙烷脂肪酸(CFA)和多键不饱和脂肪酸(PUFA)五大类型,其中SSFA相对含量最高。由于特异性的脂肪酸指示特异性的微生物类群,得出两根岩心中微生物类群主要由革兰氏阳性菌、革兰氏阴性菌和真菌组成。运用PAST(Palaeontological statistics,version 1.21)软件对已获得的脂肪酸进行主成分分析和聚类分析,得出DK3与DK6岩心的微生物组成并无显著性差异,但是DK3岩心中含水合物层位与不含水合物层位微生物组成有差异,DK6岩心中有水合物异常的层位与无异常的层位有差异。发现C16:1和C18:1这两类脂肪酸与甲烷异常有很好的对应关系,从另一方面证明了水合物异常影响微生物组成分布。本次研究首次获得冻土沉积物中FA组成特征,丰富了FA的分布范围,研究结果扩大了真菌的分布深度,具体机理有待更多的实验证明。     

Quantitative hazard and risk assessment for slow-moving landslides from Persistent Scatterer Interferometry

Preparation of reliable landslide hazard and risk maps is crucial for hazard mitigation and risk management. In recent years, various approaches have been developed for quantitative assessment of landslide hazard and risk. However, possibly due to the lack of new data, very few of these hazard and risk maps were updated after their first generation. In this study, aiming at an ongoing assessment, a novel approach for updating landslide hazard and risk maps based on Persistent Scatterer Interferometry (PSI) is introduced. The study was performed in the Arno River basin (central Italy) where most mass movements are slow-moving landslides which are properly within the detection precision of PSI point targets. In the Arno River basin, the preliminary hazard and risk assessment was performed by Catani et al. (Landslides 2:329–342, 2005) using datasets prior to 2002. In this study, the previous hazard and risk maps were updated using PSI point targets processed from 4 years (2003–2006) of RADARSAT images. Landslide hazard and risk maps for five temporal predictions of 2, 5, 10, 20 and 30 years were updated with the exposure of losses estimated in Euro (€). In particular, the result shows that in 30 years a potential loss of approximate €3.22 billion is expected due to these slow-moving landslides detected by PSI point targets.     

江西德兴铜矿集区土壤地球化学基准值方法的适用性

确定矿集区土壤地球化学基准值是矿山环境地质调查与评价的重要任务,而遴选出合适的地球化学基线值的定值方法是该问题的关键。以江西德兴铜矿集区表层土壤地球化学数据为依据,运用地球化学对比法、相对累积频率方法和标准化的方法分别计算了德兴铜矿集区表层土壤6种重金属元素的地球化学背景值,并将其与江西省土壤背景值对比。结合成土母岩重金属含量分析了各种基准值定值方法的适用性,结果证明标准化方法较适用于确定研究区表层土壤地球化学基准值。     

江西德兴铜矿大坞河土壤重金属累积特征与成因

江西德兴铜矿是中国超大型斑岩铜矿,随着矿业活动的增加,德兴铜矿区重金属污染问题日益严重。查明德兴铜矿土壤重金属累积作用及原因,可为政府机构、矿山开展环境整冶提供科学依据。在大坞河上游、中游、下游选定3个剖面,采集50件土壤样品,得出其基于地球化学基线的累积特征。整体来讲,Cu、Mo累积作用最为显著,Cr、As累积作用明显,同时发现一级、二级阶地上累积显著,并从矿石组合、地化背景、河流阶地、元素形态、矿山生产等角度开展累积作用的原因分析。     

彬长矿区煤层气储层参数及开发潜力

彬长矿区煤的变质程度低,矿井瓦斯涌出量大,瓦斯治理形势日趋严峻。根据矿区地质勘查、井下及煤层气井所获得的地质资料显示,煤层气开发的主要目标4煤层厚度大,分布稳定,煤体结构好,渗透率和气含量相对较高,气含量最高可达6.29m3/t,估算煤层气资源量为132.743×108m3。依据煤层气资源丰度划分,矿区煤层气富集区总面积为87.41km2,资源量为40.06×108m3,主要分布在大佛寺井田,相对富集区主要位于胡家河井田中南部和孟村井田东部,贫气区主要位于孟村井田西部、文家坡井田。综合分析认为研究区煤层气开发地质条件相对较好,属于可以抽采煤层,大佛寺井田为地面煤层气勘探开发最具潜力的地区。     

Landsliding triggered by reservoir operation: a general conceptual model with a case study at Three Gorges Reservoir

The Three Gorge Reservoir, one of the largest civil engineering projects in human history, dams the Yangtze River to form a 660-km-long and 1.13-km-wide reservoir. Today, although the project has been completed and is in normal operation, the on-going landslide initiation and movement in response to the reservoir operating is one of the main geologic hazards. The Huangtupo (meaning “yellow soil slope” in Chinese) Slope typifies such on-going landslides along the reservoir. Observations from a multi-year monitoring program conducted on this slope indicate that there are multiple slides on the reservoir banks that move episodically into the reservoir and their movements appear to be highly correlated with the initial and seasonal changes in the reservoir pool level. A hydro-mechanical numerical model is constructed to investigate the quantitative links among the episodic movements and the variations in pore water pressure, suction stress, hydrostatic reservoir water loading, and slope self-weight induced by the fluctuating water levels. Modeling results identify regions within the variably saturated slope where significant changes in stress occur during the periods of the initial impoundment that raised water levels from 68 to 135 m and that occur in response to seasonal fluctuations of the reservoir pool level between 145 and 175 m. We find that the rise or decline of reservoir pool level can either increase or decrease the stability of landslide. In general, hydrostatic reservoir water loading has positive correlation with the stability; pore water pressure and suction stress have negative correlation with the stability; and the effects of slope self-weight depend on the dip angle and mechanical properties of sliding surface.