灰色预测模型GM(1.1)在水文预测中的应用——以玛纳斯河为例

由于灰色预测模型理论较时间序列预测具有很大的优势,所以在许多领域得到广泛的应用.为将该方法应用于水文与水资源预测,本文以玛纳斯河流量预测为例,应用GM(1.1)灰色预测模型对水文水资源要素进行预测,并分析该预测模型在水文水资源中的应用.经分析认为,GM(1.1)灰色预测模型对水文水资源要素预测具有重要的意义.     

农业生态系统可持续性评价研究进展

在大量查阅国内外文献资料的基础上,阐述了国内外农业可持续性评价指标体系的选取标准与选取方法,在此基础上,综述了国内外农业可持续评价方法及评价尺度等研究进展情况。发现国内农业可持续性评价指标过多且以农业经济方面的指标为主,指标之间重叠现象严重,对生态环境、政策性和指导性指标重视不够,而且评价方法有待进一步完善。最后,针对农业可持续性评价中存在的问题提出了一些建议,以期对国内农业的可持续评价研究有所借鉴。     

高压断路器隔震体系抗震可靠度分析

给出了基于随机地震动模型的高压断路器抗震可靠性分析方法。通过建立高压断路器及其隔震体系的有限元计算模型，分析了在断路器底部瓷套管根部加设叠层橡胶垫后的动力性能，分析中利用随机地震动模型，充分考虑地震动的随机作用，给出了四类场地土条件下结构的地震响应均值和标准差；利用一次二阶矩理论计算得到高压断路器的可靠度，给出了各场地土条件下的震害率曲线。结果表明不同场地土条件下隔震垫的减震效果有所差异。     

Investigation of geothermal structure of the Sulawesi,using gravity and magnetic method

The Sulawesi Sea and Sulawesi Island are located in the western Pacific area where volcanic activity,plate subduction,and seismic activity are very active.The Sulawesi basin formed during the Middle Eocene-Late Eocene and nearly half of the Eocene oceanic crust has subducted below the North Sulawesi Trench.The Sulawesi Island was spliced and finalized in the Early Pliocene-Pleistocene during volcanic activity and is recently very active.This area is an optimal location to study volcanic geothermal conditions and subduction initiation mechanisms in the southern part of the western Pacific plate margin,which are important in geothermal and geodynamic research.In this study,we combined 133 heat flow data with gravity and magnetic data to calculate the Moho structure and Curie point depth of the Sulawesi Sea and periphery of the Sulawesi Island,and analyze the distribution characteristics of the geothermal gradient and thermal conductivity.The results show that the average depths of the Moho and Curie surfaces in this area are 18.4 and 14.3 km,respectively,which is consistent with the crustal velocity layer structure in the Sulawesi Basin previously determined by seismic refraction.The average geothermal gradient is 4.96°C(100 m)-1.The oceanic area shows a high geothermal gradient and low thermal conductivity,whereas the land area shows a low geothermal gradient and high thermal conductivity,both of which are consistent with statistical results of the geothermal gradient at the measured heat flow points.The highest geothermal gradient zone occurs in the transition zone from the Sulawesi Sea to Sulawesi Island,corresponding to the spreading ridge of the southward-moving Sulawesi Basin.Comprehensive gravity,magnetic,and geothermal studies have shown a high crustal geothermal gradient in the study area,which is conducive to the subduction initiation.The northern part of the Palu-koro fault on the western side of Sulawesi is likely the location where subduction initiation is occurring.During the process of moving northwest,the northern and eastern branches of Sulawesi Island have different speeds;the former is slow and the latter is fast.These branches also show different deep tectonic dynamic directions;the northern branch tilts north-up and the eastern branch tilts north-down.     

滇西惠民式铁矿找矿模型及预测

惠民铁矿产于双江陆缘弧带中元古代惠民岩组中部多旋回含铜铁火山-沉积建造中。每个小旋回底部由火山岩始,顶部至铁矿层终,构成明显的火山喷发-沉积韵律,铁矿层的大小、分叉、尖灭等,与火山岩的多寡、厚薄直接有关,受控于火山岩活动及其中心。将其厘定为云南省云县-澜沧一带区域性的中元古代海相火山-沉积型铁矿典型矿床-惠民式铁矿,并将与之成矿条件类似的双江-澜沧地区中元古代火山岩盆地作为惠民式铁矿的预测工作区,以MRAS定位定量方法,基于GIS矿产资源评价系统进行矿产预测,优选最小预测靶区13个,估算铁矿石资源量75亿吨,做为今后寻找与勘查该类型矿床的依据。     

内伶仃岛及其附近海面低层大气的平均结构

本文综合分析了内伶仃岛低空温、风探测资料和海岛及其附近海面大气边界层的平均结构,讨论了海陆环流,并把实测风速廓线与理论计算结果进行了比较。      

Statistical estimation of high-resolution surface air temperature from MODIS over the Yangtze River Delta,China

High-resolution surface air temperature data are critical to regional climate modeling in terms of energy balance, urban climate change, and so on. This study demonstrates the feasibility of using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) land surface temperature (LST) to estimate air temperature at a high resolution over the Yangtze River Delta region, China. It is found that daytime LST is highly correlated with maximum air temperature, and the linear regression coefficients vary with the type of land surface. The air temperature at a resolution of 1 km is estimated from the MODIS LST with linear regression models. The estimated air temperature shows a clear spatial structure of urban heat islands. Spatial patterns of LST and air temperature differences are detected, indicating maximum differences over urban and forest regions during summer. Validations are performed with independent data samples, demonstrating that the mean absolute error of the estimated air temperature is approximately 2.5°C, and the uncertainty is about 3.1°C, if using all valid LST data. The error is reduced by 0.4°C (15%) if using best-quality LST with errors of less than 1 K. The estimated high-resolution air temperature data have great potential to be used in validating high-resolution climate models and other regional applications.     

利用掩星资料分析东亚地区云厚的分布特征

利用2007年1月至2009年1月COSMIC掩星湿空气数据,基于相对湿度廓线出入云层时发生突变反演云边界高度的思想,统计分析了东亚地区云厚的分布特征。结果表明,掩星最低探测高度集中在3km以下,主要影响部分中云和低云云厚的反演。云发生概率沿纬度和经度方向呈现不同的分布特征,各类云概率随高度也有不同的变化规律。东亚地区所有云的平均厚度为1.78km,其中单层云和顶层云分布相似,双层云与其他云层的地理差异不大,单层云在春秋季分布相对均匀,而在夏冬季差异较大。夏季和冬季顶层云云顶高与云厚的二维频率分布各异,主要在于夏季有更多云体较厚且位于对流层上部的高云存在。     

中心城区地表温度空间分布及地物降温效应——以南京市为例

基于TM图像,采用灰度图像分割算法,自动提取南京市中心城区的不透水面、植被及水体;并用单窗算法反演了地表温度;依据离市中心的距离将中心城区分为45级缓冲区,依次统计分析每一级缓冲区内的平均温度、不透水面温度、植被温度、水体温度及各类地物的面积比例等;建立了地表温度与不透水面比例、植被比例、水体比例之间的关系模型.研究结果表明:随离市中心距离的增大,地表温度降低;植被、水体具有降温效应,水体的降温效应是植被的2.43倍;地表温度与不透水面比例、植被比例、水体比例的综合关系模型模拟效果较好.     

米波太阳射电频谱仪的科学目标和技术方案

介绍了70～700MHz低频太阳射电频谱仪的科学目标和技术方案,给出了11m 网状抛物面天线、接收系统、数字频谱终端的技术指标.并对系统的整机噪声系数、灵敏度、最小可测流量密度、LNA输入端的噪声功率进行了估计.系统频谱分辨率优于0.2MHz,时间分辨率最高可达2 ms.