A large shock vein in L chondrite Roosevelt County 106: Evidence for a long‐duration shock pulse on the L chondrite parent body

A large shock‐induced melt vein in L6 ordinary chondrite Roosevelt County 106 contains abundant high‐pressure minerals, including olivine, enstatite, and plagioclase fragments that have been transformed to polycrystalline ringwoodite, majorite, lingunite, and jadeite. The host chondrite at the melt‐vein margins contains olivines that are partially transformed to ringwoodite. The quenched silicate melt in the shock veins consists of majoritic garnets, up to 25 μm in size, magnetite, maghemite, and phyllosilicates. The magnetite, maghemite, and phyllosilicates are the terrestrial alteration products of magnesiowüstite and quenched glass. This assemblage indicates crystallization of the silicate melt at approximately 20–25 GPa and 2000 °C. Coarse majorite garnets in the centers of shock veins grade into increasingly finer grained dendritic garnets toward the vein margins, indicating increasing quench rates toward the margins as a result of thermal conduction to the surrounding chondrite host. Nanocrystalline boundary zones, that contain wadsleyite, ringwoodite, majorite, and magnesiowüstite, occur along shock‐vein margins. These zones represent rapid quench of a boundary melt that contains less metal‐sulfide than the bulk shock vein. One‐dimensional finite element heat‐flow calculations were performed to estimate a quench time of 750–1900 ms for a 1.6‐mm thick shock vein. Because the vein crystallized as a single high‐pressure assemblage, the shock pulse duration was at least as long as the quench time and therefore the sample remained at 20–25 GPa for at least 750 ms. This relatively long shock pulse, combined with a modest shock pressure, implies that this sample came from deep in the L chondrite parent body during a collision with a large impacting body, such as the impact event that disrupted the L chondrite parent body 470 Myr ago.     

Trends in northern midlatitude atmospheric wave power from 1950 to 2099

In a warming climate, atmospheric wave activity and associated weather patterns may change, although conflicting results have been reported on this topic. Additionally, atmospheric wave changes in a future climate have mainly focused on waves of a specified spatial scale, rather than a particular spatiotemporal scale. Here, changes in the variability of Rossby waves of multiple spatiotemporal scales are analyzed using the wavenumber-frequency power spectrum, a tool commonly applied to analyze atmospheric equatorial waves. Daily 500 hPa geopotential height data over 40°–60°N from historical (1950–2005) and future (2006–2099) simulations from 20 models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) under the RCP8.5 scenario were analyzed. When compared to the historical period, the late 21st century climate projections showed a decline in spectral power for both eastward and westward propagating waves with wavenumbers greater than 8 that spanned over all frequencies in all seasons, but an increase in mean power for eastward propagating waves with wavenumbers 1–7 over all frequencies was shown in winter and spring. This increase in power was accompanied by increased variance, i.e., an increased meridional extent of 500 hPa ridges and troughs, and was the result of increases in the mean number of high amplitude events and duration of activity within this wave band. These results indicate that large-scale (~ 104 km) eastward propagating weather systems may intensify with higher amplitudes for ridges and troughs, while short-scale (102–103 km) weather systems may decrease in their intensity due to reduced variability in the late 21st century under the high emissions scenario. Potential mechanisms for these changes are discussed, including enhanced Arctic warming and midlatitude-tropical interactions.     

Forced fortnightly tides in shallow rivers

Abstract

The presence and the basic features of the forced fortnightly wave observed in some shallow rivers are explained through scaling arguments which show that this wave is generated by the fortnightly modulation of the frictional forces due to the variation in tidal velocities. Comparison of the results with sea‐level records from a shallow reach of the St Lawrence River shows reasonable agreement between data and theory.     

Geometric consistency for regression model estimation and testing in climatology and meteorology

Abstract

The effects of outliers on linear regression are examined. The sensitivity of classical least‐squares (LS) procedures to outliers is shown to be associated with the geometric inconsistency between the data space and the analysis space. This is illustrated for both estimation and inference. A geometrically consistent procedure based on the Euclidean distance is proposed. This procedure involves the least absolute deviation (LAD) regression and a new permutation test for matched pairs (PTMP). Comparisons made with LS techniques demonstrate that the proposed procedure is more resistant to the existence of outliers in the data set and leads to more intuitive results. Applications and illustrations using meteorological and climatological data are also discussed.     

Recent progress in the operational forecasting of summer severe weather

Abstract

Summer severe weather (SSW) can strike suddenly and unexpectedly with disastrous consequences for human activity. Considerable progress has been made in the past ten years in the operational forecasting of SSW. Traditionally, SSW was defined to consist of tornadoes, strong winds, hail, lightning and heavy rain. Hazardous types of strong winds have recently been expanded to include microbursts, macrobursts and surfacing rear inflow jet damage behind mesoscale convective systems. Doppler radar was used to relate surface damage to the appropriate atmospheric phenomena, first diagnostically and then prognostically. This improvement in classification has fedback to and improved the forecast process. Concurrent progress has been made in the use of synoptic observations. The concept of helical wind profiles and improved knowledge of the role of dry mid‐level air has improved the forecasting of tornadoes and strong gusty winds. Moisture flux convergence, derived from surface measurements, shows great promise in identifying areas of storm initiation. Satellite imagery has been used to identify dynamical atmospheric boundaries. Numerical modelling of the interaction of environmental wind profiles and individual thunderstorms has greatly contributed to the understanding of SSW. Studies of spatial and temporal patterns of lightning, both specific cases and climatology, contribute to the forecasting of severe storms. Polarization radar results have shown progress in separating the signals of hail from those of rain and in the improved measurement of heavy rainfalls. Radar observation of clear air boundaries and their interactions show potential for the forecasting of thunderstorm initiation. Though not traditionally considered part of SSW, hurricanes that evolve into extra‐tropical storms share many of the same hazardous features. The progress in computing, communications and display technologies has also made substantial contributions to operational forecasting and to the dissemination of weather warnings.     

Tree-ring reconstructed summer temperature anomalies for temperate East Asia since 800 C.E.

We develop a summer temperature reconstruction for temperate East Asia based on a network of annual tree-ring chronologies covering the period 800–1989 C.E. The East Asia reconstruction is the regional average of 585 individual grid point summer temperature reconstructions produced using an ensemble version of point-by-point regression. Statistical calibration and validation tests indicate that the regional average possesses sufficient overall skill to allow it to be used to study the causes of temperature variability and change over the region. The reconstruction suggests a moderately warm early medieval epoch (ca. 850–1050 C.E.), followed by generally cooler ‘Little Ice Age’ conditions (ca. 1350–1880 C.E.) and 20th century warming up to the present time. Since 1990, average temperature has exceeded past warm epochs of comparable duration, but it is not statistically unprecedented. Superposed epoch analysis reveals a volcanic forcing signal in the East Asia summer temperature reconstruction, resulting in pulses of cooler summer conditions that may persist for several years. Substantial uncertainties remain, however, particularly at lower frequencies, thus requiring caution and scientific prudence in the interpretation of this record.