Semi-analytic simulations of galactic winds: volume filling factor, ejection of metals and parameter study

We present a semi-analytic treatment of galactic winds within high-resolution, large-scale cosmological N -body simulations of a Λ cold dark matter (ΛCDM) universe. The evolution of winds is investigated by following the expansion of supernova-driven superbubbles around the several hundred thousand galaxies that form in an approximately spherical region of space with diameter 52  h ⁻¹ Mpc and mean density close to the mean density of the universe. We focus our attention on the impact of winds on the diffuse intergalactic medium. Initial conditions for mass loss at the base of winds are taken from Shu, Mo & Mao. Results are presented for the volume filling factor and the mass fraction of the intergalactic medium (IGM) affected by winds, and their dependence on the model parameters is carefully investigated. The mass-loading efficiency of bubbles is a key factor to determine the evolution of winds and their global impact on the IGM: the higher the mass loading, the later the IGM is enriched with metals. Galaxies with 10⁹ < M _★ < 10¹⁰ M_⊙ are responsible for most of the metals ejected into the IGM at   z = 3  , while galaxies with   M _★ < 10⁹ M_⊙   give a non-negligible contribution only at higher redshifts, when larger galaxies have not yet assembled. We find a higher mean IGM metallicity than Lyα forest observations suggest, and we argue that the discrepancy may be explained by the high temperatures of a large fraction of the metals in winds, which may not leave detectable imprints in absorption in the Lyα forest.     

An analytic method to determine future close approaches between satellites

The calculation of the times of future close approaches between pairs of satellites has been formulated using analytical techniques. The resulting analytical equations are solved using numerical iterative techniques similar to solving Kepler's equation. A solution is obtained in a very efficient manner by use of a series of prefilters which eliminate many cases from further consideration. The method is valid for all values of eccentricities less than one and all relative geometries between the two orbits. This approach produces results in a very efficient and reliable manner.     

The delesse relation in a concentrically zoned sphere. I. The section-number bias

Zonal areas of a randomly chosen section through a concentrically zoned sphere yield an estimate of the (volumetric) amount of the outer zone which is subject to a large positive bias that decreases rapidly with increase in the number of sections on which the estimate is based. It will not exceed 3% of the amount present if an analysis is based on as many as 8 sections and will be less than 1% if 32 sections are used.     

Extension and subsidence of the Pearl River Mouth Basin, northern South China Sea

Abstract The uniform stretching model has been applied to seismic reflection profiles and well-log information from the Pearl River Mouth Basin on the northern flank of the South China Sea. Stretching factors were calculated from subsidence curves determined from the stratigraphy by using the backstripping technique to remove the effects of compaction and sediment loading. Variations in rift topography, palaeobathymetry and global sea-level v/ere taken into account. We argue that the Pearl River Mouth Basin formed by lithospheric extension by a factor of about 1.8, lasting from Late Cretaceous to late Oligocene times. Stretching factors calculated from subsidence agree with those determined from the geometry of normal faulting and from crustal thinning. Thus there is no indication of a significant discrepancy between the different estimates of stretching. The geometry of faulting suggests that considerable amounts of local footwall uplift occurred during the rifting period. Small differences between the observed and calculated subsidence curves (∽ 400 m in the middle Miocene) are best explained by minor amounts of extension ( β ∽ 1.1). The time-temperature history of sediments within the basin has also been calculated so that expected vitrinite reflectance and oil abundance could be determined. The results are consistent with each other and are in reasonable agreement with observations from wells.     

Eocene age of eclogite metamorphism in Pakistan Himalaya: implications for India-Eurasia collision

A geochronological investigation of two rocks with an eclogitic assemblage (omphacite-garnet-quartz-rutile) from the High Himalaya using the Sm/Nd, Rb/Sr, U/Pb and Ar/Ar methods is presented here. The first three methods outline a cooling history from the time of peak metamorphism at 49±6 Ma recorded by Sm/Nd in garnet-clinopyroxene to the closure of Rb/Sr in phengite at 43±1 Ma and U/Pb in rutile at 39–40 Ma. The Sm/Nd isotopic system was fully equilibrated during eclogitization and has not been disturbed since; its mineral ages may date the peak metamorphic conditions (650±50°C at 13–18 kbar: Pognante and Spencer, 1991). The Ar/Ar data reveal the presence of substantial amounts of excess ⁴⁰Ar in hornblende, and yield a statistically acceptable but geologically meaningless phengite plateau age of 81.4±0.2 Ma, inconsistent with Sm/Nd, Rb/Sr and U/Pb. This questions the use of such a chronometer for the dating of high-pressure assemblages. The results imply a Late Palaeocene or Early Eocene subduction of the northern Indian plate margin in NW Himalaya. The fact that eclogites are restricted to NW Himalaya may be the result of a peculiar p-T-t path associated with a high convergence rate during the first indentation, in contrast to the later and slow subduction in Central and Eastern Himalaya.     

A numerical response of the middle atmosphere to the 11-year solar cycle

A two-dimensional numerical model with coupled photochemistry and dynamics has been used to investigate the response of the middle atmosphere (16–116 km) to changes in solar activity over the 11-year solar cycle. Model inputs that vary with solar cycle include solar radiation, cosmic ray and auroral ionization rates and the flux of NO_x at the model's upper boundary.In this study, the results of model runs for solar cycle minimum and maximum conditions are compared. In the stratosphere, using currently accepted estimates of changes in solar radiation at wavelengths longer than 180 nm, only small responses in ozone, temperature and zonal winds are obtained. On the other hand, changes at shorter wavelengths, and the effects of particle precipitation, lead to large variations in the abundances of trace species in the thermosphere and upper mesosphere. In particular, very large abundances of NO_x are produced above 90 km by auroral particle precipitation. Considerable amounts of NO_x are transported subsequently to the stratosphere by the global mean meridional circulation. It is shown that this excess NO_x can lead to significant decreases in ozone concentrations at high latitudes and that it may explain observations of nitrate deposition in Antarctic snow.     

Determination of the properties of Mercury's magnetic field by the MESSENGER mission

The MESSENGER mission to Mercury, to be launched in 2004, will provide an opportunity to characterize Mercury's internal magnetic field during an orbital phase lasting one Earth year. To test the ability to determine the planetary dipole and higher-order moments from measurements by the spacecraft's fluxgate magnetometer, we simulate the observations along the spacecraft trajectory and recover the internal field characteristics from the simulated observations. The magnetic field inside Mercury's magnetosphere is assumed to consist of an intrinsic multipole component and an external contribution due to magnetospheric current systems described by a modified Tsyganenko 96 model. Under the axis-centered-dipole approximation without correction for the external field the moment strength is overestimated by ∼4% for a simulated dipole moment of , and the error depends strongly on the magnitude of the simulated moment, rising as the moment decreases. Correcting for the external field contributions can reduce the error in the dipole term to a lower limit of ∼1-2% without a solar wind monitor. Dipole and quadrupole terms, although highly correlated, are then distinguishable at the level equivalent to an error in the position of an offset dipole of a few tens of kilometers. Knowledge of the external magnetic field is therefore the primary limiting factor in extracting reliable knowledge of the structure of Mercury's magnetic field from the MESSENGER observations.     

Variation in tree mortality and regeneration affect forest carbon recovery following fuel treatments and wildfire in the Lake Tahoe Basin, California, USA

Background

Forest fuel treatments have been proposed as tools to stabilize carbon stocks in fire-prone forests in the Western U.S.A. Although fuel treatments such as thinning and burning are known to immediately reduce forest carbon stocks, there are suggestions that these losses may be paid back over the long-term if treatments sufficiently reduce future wildfire severity, or prevent deforestation. Although fire severity and post-fire tree regeneration have been indicated as important influences on long-term carbon dynamics, it remains unclear how natural variability in these processes might affect the ability of fuel treatments to protect forest carbon resources. We surveyed a wildfire where fuel treatments were put in place before fire and estimated the short-term impact of treatment and wildfire on aboveground carbon stocks at our study site. We then used a common vegetation growth simulator in conjunction with sensitivity analysis techniques to assess how predicted timescales of carbon recovery after fire are sensitive to variation in rates of fire-related tree mortality, and post-fire tree regeneration.

Results

We found that fuel reduction treatments were successful at ameliorating fire severity at our study site by removing an estimated 36% of aboveground biomass. Treated and untreated stands stored similar amounts of carbon three years after wildfire, but differences in fire severity were such that untreated stands maintained only 7% of aboveground carbon as live trees, versus 51% in treated stands. Over the long-term, our simulations suggest that treated stands in our study area will recover baseline carbon storage 10?C35?years more quickly than untreated stands. Our sensitivity analysis found that rates of fire-related tree mortality strongly influence estimates of post-fire carbon recovery. Rates of regeneration were less influential on recovery timing, except when fire severity was high.

Conclusions

Our ability to predict the response of forest carbon resources to anthropogenic and natural disturbances requires models that incorporate uncertainty in processes important to long-term forest carbon dynamics. To the extent that fuel treatments are able to ameliorate tree mortality rates or prevent deforestation resulting from wildfire, our results suggest that treatments may be a viable strategy to stabilize existing forest carbon stocks.     

基于均一化观测序列的京津冀地区气候变化格局分析

利用1960~2015年京津冀地区88个国家级气象站观测资料（包括日平均气温、日最高气温、日最低气温、日降水、日平均风速等）,使用MASH（Multiple Analysis of Series for Homogenization）方法剔除台站迁址、仪器变更等因素所致偏差后,生成均一化的观测资料集。基于新资料集计算了各站气温、降水和凤速序列的线性趋势和Morlet小波等统计特征,分析了京津冀地区气候变化格局。结果表明:MASH方法能较准确地检测并校订观测序列中迁站、仪器变更等因素所导致的非均一性;1960~2015年期间京津冀年平均气温显著上升,上升幅度为0.261℃/10 a;降水减少,平均减少11.27 mm/10 a;风速显著减小,平均减小0.193 m s-1（10 a）-1。