Impact of the Montreal protocol and its amendments on the rate of change of global radiative forcing

Increases in chlorinated and brominated halocarbons are believed to be responsible for the depletion of stratospheric ozone observed over much of the globe in the past decade or so. Ozone depletion is in turn believed to lead to a negative radiative forcing, tending to cool the stratosphere and the surface. We show that the increasing atmospheric concentrations of ozone-depleting halocarbons and onset of related ozone depletion likely led to a negative forcing of the climate system in the 1980s that slowed significantly the rate of change of total anthropogenic radiative forcing due to the combined effect of all greenhouse gases over that decade. Within the next decade, emissions of these halocarbons are expected to rapidly decrease, with corresponding impacts on ozone and radiative forcing. As the emissions of ozone-depleting gases are reduced and eventually phased out, the rate of ozone depletion is expected to decrease and eventually reverse. All other things being equal, we show that the change from deepening ozone depletion in the 1980s to ozone increases in the future should lead to a pronounced increase in the decadal rate of change of anthropogenic greenhouse forcing of the next few decades, perhaps to levels unprecedented in this century.     

Wave packet propagation in an amplifying medium and its application to the dispersion characteristics and to the generation mechanisms of Pc 1 events

The formulae which give the propagation characteristics of a wave packet in a dispersive and amplifying medium, are established. Application is made to the propagation of Pc 1 elements through a magnetosphere constituted of a cold plasma and a high energy proton population. It is shown that the spectral shape, in a frequency-time coordinate system, of the Pc 1 elements is related to two terms : v = d²ω/dk², which represents the variation of the group velocity with frequency and which depends only on the cold plasma characteristics, and μ = -d²γ/dk², in which γ is the amplification coefficient depending on the frequency and which is related to the high energy particle distribution function. When v ? μ, only the usual dispersion effects occur, but a new method is found for determining the line of force on which the micropulsations are generated, without making any assumption about the cold plasma density distribution inside the magnetosphere. It is also possible to deduce some characteristics about the high energy proton distribution. Theoretical computations are presented, which give the frequency variation of the amplification coefficient as a function of the e-folding energy and the anisotropy factor of these high energy protons. Applications are made to ~30 pearl events which are analysed in detail according to this theory. When μ ? v, other effects do appear. After a preliminary phase, the pearl elements can become parallel for a while, or even re-erect before lying again; the duration of each element gives an indication about the number of interacting particles. The conditions for the validity of the quasi-linear theory, and some other non-linear effects related with the interpretation of Pc 1 micropulsations are also discussed.     

Improved Representation of Land-surface Heterogeneity in a Non-hydrostatic Numerical Weather Prediction Model

This study focuses on the relevance of accurate surface parameters, in particular soil moisture, and of parameterizations for heterogeneous land surfaces, for the prediction of sensible and latent heat fluxes by a mesoscale weather forecast model with horizontal grid resolution of 7 km. The analysis is based on model integrations for a 30-day period, which are compared both to flux measurements obtained from the LITFASS-2003 field experiment and to high-resolution-model (1-km grid spacing) results. At first, the relevance of improved parameter sets and input data compared to usual operational practice for an accurate prediction of near-surface fluxes is shown and discussed. It is demonstrated that an observation-based land-surface assimilation scheme leads to an improved soil moisture analysis, which is shown to be essential for the realistic simulation of surface fluxes. Secondly, the implementation of two efficient parameterization strategies for subgrid-scale variability of the surface, the mosaic and the tile approach, is presented. Using these methods, the simulations are in better agreement with measurements than simulations with simple aggregation methods that use effective surface parameters. Integrations with the mosaic approach reproduce high resolution simulations very well and more accurately than simulations with the tile method. Finally, the high resolution simulations are analyzed to justify and discuss the approximations underlying both methods.     

Elevation of the olivine-spinel transition in subducted lithosphere: Seismic evidence

The top of the olivine-spinel phase change in subducted oceanic lithosphere can be located by the travel times of seismic waves which have propagated through the slab. P-wave travel-time residuals from deep earthquakes in the Tonga island are observed at Australian seismic stations are grouped according to the depth of the earthquake. The change in mean residual with a change in earthquake depth is related to the velocity contrast between slab and normal mantle at that depth. The curve mean residual versus earthquake depth displays a region of markedly increased slope between earthquake depths of about 250 and 350 km. The most probable explanation of this observation is an elevation by 100 km of the olivine-spinel phase change within the relatively cooler slab. No evidence was found for vertical displacements within the slab of any deeper phase changes.A temperature contrast between slab and normal mantle of about 1,000°C at 250 km depth is implied. This finding confirms current thermal models for subducted lithosphere but is inconsistent with the global intraplate stress field unless only a few percent of the negative buoyancy force at subduction zones is transmitted to the surface plates.     

Defining rock types by composition ranges

Moderate increase in the number of composition ranges used in the definition of a rock type drastically reduces the number of specimens qualifying for membership in the type. Classifications based on more than a very small number of rather broad ranges will be unrealistically exclusive.     

A chart for designing modal analysis by point counting

Developing the work ofHasofer (1963) andSolomon (1963) concerning the factors controlling the precision of point counting, the authors have designed a chart to facilitate the choice of grid-spacing and sample area for individual minerals. After determining the grain radius, and making a rough estimate of the percentage of the mineral under investigation, suitable combinations of grid-spacing and number of counts can be rapidly determined from the chart.

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Zusammenfassung Diese Arbeit stellt eine Weiterentwicklung derjenigen vonHasofer (1963) undSolomon (1963) dar, die sich mit den Faktoren befaßten, welche die Genauigkeit der Punktezählung bestimmen. Die Autoren haben eine Tabelle entworfen, welche die Wahl der graphostatischen Abstände und des Mustergebietes für einzelne Mineralien erleichtert.

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Résumé Développant le travail deHasofer (1963) et deSolomon (1963) sur les facteurs qui déterminent la précision du compte par points, les auteurs ont élaboré un diagramme pour faciliter le choix du quadrillage et de la superficie d'essai pour des minéraux particuliers.

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An effect of closure on the structure of principal components

The principal components transformation generates, from any data array, a new set of variables—the scores of the components—characterized by a total variance exactly equal to that of the initial set. It is in this sense that the transformed variables are said to contain, preserve, or account for, the variance of the original set. The scores, however, are uncorrelated. In the course of the transformation, what becomes of the strong interdependence of variance and covariance so characteristic of closed arrays? The question seems to have attracted little attention; we are aware of no study of it in the earth sciences. Experimental work reported here shows quite clearly that the overall equivalence of variance and covariance imposed by closure, though absent from the component scores,may emerge in relations between the coefficientsof each of the lower-order components; if the raw data are complete rock analyses, the sum of all the covariances of the coefficients of such a component is negative, and is very nearly equal to the sum of all the variances in absolute value. (In all cases so far examined, the absolute value of the first sum is a little less than that of the second.) The principal components transformation provides an elegant escape from closure correlation if a petrographic problem can be restated entirely in terms of component scores, but not if a physical interpretation of the component vectors is required.     

Intermediate time error growth and predictability: tropics versus mid-latitudes

The evolution of identical twin errors from an atmospheric general circulation model is studied in the linear range (small errors) through intermediate times and the approach to saturation. Between forecast day 1 and 7, the normalized error variance in the tropics is similar to that at higher latitudes. After that, tropical errors grow more slowly. The predictability time τ taken for tropical errors to reach half their saturation values is larger than that for mid-latitudes, especially for the planetary waves, thus implying greater potential predictability in the tropics.
The discrepancy between mid-latitude and tropical τ is more pronounced at 850 hPa than at 200 hPa, is largest for the planetary waves, and is more pronounced for errors arising from wave phase differences (than from wave amplitude differences).
The spectra of the error in 200 hPa zonal wind show that for forecast times up to about 5 d, the tropical error peaks at much shorter scales than the mid-latitude errors, but that subsequently tropical and mid-latitude error spectra look increasingly similar.
The difference between upper and lower level tropical τ may be due to the greater influence of mid-latitudes at the upper levels.     

The Soil Moisture and Net Primary Production Affected by CO_2 and Climate Change Using a Coupled Model

In this paper, a coupled model was used to estimate the responses of soil moisture and net primary production of vegetation （NPP） to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate change. The analysis uses three experiments simulated by the second-generation Earth System Model （CanESM2） of the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis （CCCma）, which are part of the phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project （CMIP5）. The authors focus on the magnitude and evolution of responses in soil moisture and NPP using simulations modeled by CanESM, in which the individual effects of increasing CO2 concentration and climate change and their combined effect are separately accounted for. When considering only the single effect of climate change, the soil moisture and NPP have a linear trend of 0.03 kg m^-2 yr^-1 and-0.14 gC m^- 2 yr^-2, respec- tively. However, such a reduction in the global NPP results from the decrease of NPP at lower latitudes and in the Southern Hemisphere, although increased NPP has been shown in high northern latitudes. The largest negative trend is located in the Amazon basin at -1.79 gC m^-2 yr^-2. For the individual effect of increasing CO2 concentration, both soil moisture and NPP show increases, with an elevated linear trend of 0.02 kg m^-2 yr^-1 and 0.84 gC m^-2 yr^-2, respectively. Most regions show an increasing NPP, except Alaska. For the combined effect of increasing atmospheric CO2 and climate change, the increased soil moisture and NPP exhibit a linear trend of 0.04 kg m^2 yr^-1 and 0.83 gC m^2 yr^-2 at a global scale. In the Amazon basin, the higher reduction in soil moisture is illustrated by the model, with a linear trend of-0.39 kg m^-2 yr^-1, for the combined effect. Such a change in soil moisture is caused by a weakened Walker circulation simulated by this coupled model, compared with the single effect of increasing CO2 concentration （experiment M2）, and a consequence of the reduction in NPP is also shown in this area, with a linear trend of-     

Mathiasite-loveringite and priderite in mantle xenoliths from the Alto Paranaíba Igneous Province,Brazil: genesis and constraints on mantle metasomatism

Alkali-bearing Ti oxides were identified in mantle xenoliths enclosed in kimberlite-like rocks from Limeira 1 alkaline intrusion from the Alto Paranaíba Igneous Province, southeastern Brazil. The metasomatic mineral assemblages include mathiasite-loveringite and priderite associated with clinopyroxene, phlogopite, ilmenite and rutile. Mathiasite-loveringite (55–60 wt.% TiO₂; 5.2–6.7 wt.% ZrO₂) occurs in peridotite xenoliths rimming chromite (～50 wt.% Cr₂O₃) and subordinate ilmenite (12–13.4 wt.% MgO) in double reaction rim coronas. Priderite (Ba/(K+Ba)< 0.05) occurs in phlogopite-rich xenoliths as lamellae within Mg-ilmenite (8.4–9.8 wt.% MgO) or as intergrowths in rutile crystals that may be included in sagenitic phlogopite. Mathiasite-loveringite was formed by reaction of peridotite primary minerals with alkaline melts. The priderite was formed by reaction of peridotite minerals with ultrapotassic melts. Disequilibrium textures and chemical zoning of associated minerals suggest that the metasomatic reactions responsible for the formation of the alkali-bearing Ti oxides took place shortly prior the entrainment of the xenoliths in the host magma, and is not connected to old (Proterozoic) mantle enrichment events.