能量分析在台风短期预报业务中的应用

本文以９４１４、９４１５号两个连续北上台风为例，证明能量场的分布与台风移向有着明显的对应关系。     

某基坑工程土钉支护工作性状试验研究

通过对广州天河荟雅苑基坑工程土钉支护进行试验和研究,分析了土钉支护体系的工作性状,并为同类工程的设计提供了一定的依据。     

Uncertainty as the overlap of alternate conditional distributions

An important task in modern geostatistics is the assessment and quantification of resource and reserve uncertainty. This uncertainty is valuable support information for many management decisions. Uncertainty at specific locations and uncertainty in the global resource is of interest. There are many different methods to build models of uncertainty, including Kriging, Cokriging, and Inverse Distance. Each method leads to different results. A method is proposed to combine local uncertainties predicted by different models to obtain a combined measure of uncertainty that combines good features of each alternative. The new estimator is the overlap of alternate conditional distributions.     

Refugee flow or brain-drain? The humanitarian policy and post-Tiananmen mainland Chinese immigration to Canada

"The humanitarian policy that the Canadian government implemented in response to the 1989 Tiananmen Square crackdown changed a migration system primarily based on personal networks into a brain drain. Post-Tiananmen mainland Chinese immigrants (MCIs) were better educated than those arriving in Canada previously. Among the post-Tiananmen MCIs, those who landed under the policy were better educated than those landing in other categories. The analysis suggests that post-Tiananmen MCIs represented a brain-drain rather than a refugee flow, that the humanitarian policy implicitly contained ideological and human capital concerns in addition to humanitarian concerns, and that Canada benefited from the policy by obtaining human capital as well as satisfying its humanitarian obligations and ideological aspirations."     

The effect of an optically thin region on stability of an accretion disk around a supermassive black hole

We analyse conditions of the innermost portion of an accretion disk and establish a set of equations for this region. A stable innermost region may exist, which can probably explain the observed UV and X-ray spectra, avoiding the unstable emission. We then discuss the detailed radial structure of a disk around a black hole for typical AGN parameters and obtain different kinds of- relationships for different regions of a disk. On the basis of this, we discuss the stability. A new type of cycle is present, which we call a double S shaped cycle. In this cycle, the extent of accretion rate variability is much larger than that in dwarf nova cycles. This probably solves the problem of violent variability of AGN. In the meantime, the very high accretion rate at the hottest state in limit cycles in the unstable region may provide continuous injection of matter to the jet and power the relativistic motion of the jet.     

Ammonium regeneration in intertidal sediments of the Yangtze estuary during air-exposure

The influences of exposure to the atmosphere on ammonium cycle in the intertidal surface sediments were in situ studied with a geochemical approach at a typical station in the Yangtze Estuary during three tidal cycles in September 2003. During an about 8-h emersion period of each diurnal tide, six high-resolution vertical profiles of adsorbed and dissolved ammonium were measured. It was observed that both adsorbed and dissolved ammonium generally had an increasing trend in sediment cores during the exposure. The rate of ammonium regeneration in sediments was estimated using the accumulation amount of ammonium including adsorbed and soluble fractions during the daytime emersion. The calculation result showed that there was relatively high ammonification rate (˜500 nmol N cm⁻³ day⁻¹), which reflected that organic nitrogen in sediments was quickly decomposed with a residence time of ˜52.7 days. Due to the dramatic temperature difference observed in sediment profiles, free convection was considered an important mechanism of regulating the efflux of produced ammonium into overlying waters. The total estimated amount of regenerated ammonium was ˜1.35×10⁵ t N year⁻¹ in the intertidal flat of the Yangtze Estuary, which occupied 7.6% of the total inorganic nitrogen annually transported to the estuarine ecosystem.     

淄博市洪山、寨里煤矿地下水串层污染形成原因及防治

淄博市洪山、寨里煤矿区隐伏的奥陶系灰岩裂隙岩溶水污染严重。水质污染突发于矿坑全面闭坑以后，污染范围与矿坑水区一致，地下水污染组份与矿坑水的高含量组份相同。水质恶化主要由矿坑水串层污染所致。在此针对串层污染形成原因及影响因素，提出了防治对策。     

用逐步回归预测棉铃虫发生期和发生量

收集了1973年至2000年的气象，农作物、棉铃虫虫害等196年因子，以运城、汾阳和临汾为山西省代表站，利用最优二分割法把发生量分为10级，5级和不分级3种情况；使用逐步回归计算了219个模型，从中选出27个棉铃虫二、三代发生期，发生量最优模型，在农气服务中应用，预报准确率为95％，效果良好。