A Long-Term Forecast Model of Spring Runoff: The Case of the Belaya River

Doklady Earth Sciences - The results of long-term forecasting of the spring runoff in the Belaya River basin based on the water-balance model are presented. The structure and parameters of the...     

Education as a determinant of fertility: a case study of Kullu Town

Using a sample of 885 females (1/2 of all married women of reproductive age), this study examines the role of education as a determinant of fertility among couples in Kullu town of Himachol Pradesh, India. Of the 885 respondents, only 149 were illiterate. The average family size was 2.88. Findings reveal that 1) the average family size was largest for illiterate respondents (3.57) and for illiterate males (3.76); 2) average family size declined consistently after the middle level of education to 1.29 for post graduate respondents and 2.33 for post graduate males; 3) a negative correlation exists between fertility and education of both husband and wife, with the wife's education having a stronger negative correlation with fertility; and 4) couples with an educational level of matriculation and above have a distinctly smaller family size than those less educated.     

Modeling preferential flow in reactive barriers: implications for performance and design

Reactive barriers are passive and in situ ground water treatment systems. Heterogeneities in hydraulic conductivity (K) within the aquifer-reactive barrier system will result in higher flux rates, and reduced residence times, through portions of the barrier. These spatial variations in residence time will affect the treatment capacity of the barrier. A numerical flow model was used to evaluate the effects of spatial variations in K on preferential flow through barriers. The simulations indicate that the impact of heterogeneities in K will be a function of their location and distribution; the more localized the high K zone, the greater the preferential flow. The geometry of the reactive barrier will also strongly influence flow distribution. Aquifer heterogeneities will produce greater preferential flow in thinner barriers compared to thicker barriers. If the barrier K is heterogeneous, greater preferential flow will occur in thicker barriers. The K of the barrier will affect the flow distribution; decreasing the K of the barrier can result in more even distribution of flow. Results indicate that less variable flow will be attained utilizing thicker, homogeneous barriers. The addition of homogeneous zones to thinner barriers will be effective at redistributing flow only if installed immediately adjacent to both the up- and downgradient faces of the barrier.     

Late Cretaceous-Cenozoic history of the Lake Baikal depression and formation of its unique biodiversity

Independent methods of geological and molecular-biological chronologies have made it possible to define generally corresponding stages in the geological and biological evolution of the environments and communities of Lake Baikal since the Late Cretaceous, i.e., during the last 70 myr. All the abiotic elements drastically changed during geological evolution, with destruction of existing and formation of new natural complexes. Nevertheless, some specific zones retained relicts of former settings. The resulting present-day natural complex includes elements of different ages and geneses. Similar to different natural zones of the present-day Earth, which are populated by different biocoenoses, stages in the development of abiotic elements are also characterized by different faunal and floral assemblages. Some taxa were replaced by others, and the resulting aqueous biota of Lake Baikal includes different-age and ecologically different elements. The oldest groups of Baikal organisms appeared approximately 70 Ma ago, although the largest proportion of the lake biota started forming 4–3 Ma ago in response to the most drastic changes in the abiotic elements of the environment. The youngest taxa appeared 1.8 to 0.15 Ma ago, i.e., during the period when superdeep lake environments and mountainous glaciations were developing. The chronological coincidence of main stages in development of abiotic and biotic elements of the nature indicates their relationships. Particular transformations of abiotic elements and the probable mechanism of their influence on the evolution of living communities are also considered.     

Mineral waters of the projected specially protected natural territory “Istoki Amura”

We examine the various types of mineral waters occurring on the projected specially protected transboundary natural territory “Istoki Amura”, on the Hentei-Dauria neotectonic high. We suggest the pattern of rational utilization of the mineral springs according to the nature conservation status of the terrain (nature reserves, national parks, and public access areas).     

Prediction of Resource Volumes at Untested Locations Using Simple Local Prediction Models

This paper shows how local spatial nonparametric prediction models can be applied to estimate volumes of recoverable gas resources at individual undrilled sites, at multiple sites on a regional scale, and to compute confidence bounds for regional volumes based on the distribution of those estimates. An approach that combines cross-validation, the jackknife, and bootstrap procedures is used to accomplish this task. Simulation experiments show that cross-validation can be applied beneficially to select an appropriate prediction model. The cross-validation procedure worked well for a wide range of different states of nature and levels of information. Jackknife procedures are used to compute individual prediction estimation errors at undrilled locations. The jackknife replicates also are used with a bootstrap resampling procedure to compute confidence bounds for the total volume. The method was applied to data (partitioned into a training set and target set) from the Devonian Antrim Shale continuous-type gas play in the Michigan Basin in Otsego County, Michigan. The analysis showed that the model estimate of total recoverable volumes at prediction sites is within 4 percent of the total observed volume. The model predictions also provide frequency distributions of the cell volumes at the production unit scale. Such distributions are the basis for subsequent economic analyses.

An iterative method for simultaneously computing the synthesis of light and heavy elements

We propose an iterative algorithm for computing the synthesis of heavy elements through the rapid capture of neutrons (r-process) and, at sufficiently high temperatures, protons by simultaneously using two distinct computer codes. One of the codes describes the kinetics of nuclear reactions between light and intermediate chemical elements, which are the source of free neutrons and protons used by the second code to synthesize heavy elements from seed nuclides (isotopes near the iron peak of the cosmic abundance curve). The two codes interact through the neutron and proton reaction channels. We demonstrate the efficiency of our method with an example of the nucleosynthesis in a supernova’s helium shell triggered by the evaporation of neutrons and protons from α particles exposed to the neutrino flux from a collapsing stellar core. In this case, three or four iterations are enough to obtain an almost exact self-consistent solution.