强震类型划分和后续强震预测方法探索

地震能量、振幅与周期的关系,由震源性质决定,因而其相关程度可作为强震类型划分的指标．初步将强震划分为主余震、双主震和强震群型3类．同类型强震在震源性质定量指标上有相似性,且有一定重复性．它们可为后续强震预测提供依据．从1988～1997 年50多例CDSN宽频带（BPZ波）强震记录中,分析得出的后续强震预测参考指标,对分型预测法应用有参考价值．     

A contrast of two typical LUCC processes and their driving forces in oases of arid areas: A case study of Sangong River Watershed at the northern foot of Tianshan Mountains

Aerial photographs taken in 1978 and 1987, Landsat TM images in 1998 as well as soil, hydrology and socio-economic data for the oases in Sangong River Watershed were processed by Remote Sensing (RS) and Geographic Information System (GIS). There are two typical agricultural land uses in oases, Farm-based Land Use with large-scale intensified agricultural activities (FLU) and Household Responsibility-based Land Use with small-scale activities (HRLU). The Index Model of Land Use/Land Cover Change (LUCC), Weighted Index Sum (WIS) and logistic stepwise regression model were established to contrast the two typical LUCC processes and their driving forces. The land use patterns were dominated by cropland and grassland for the entire region, and cropland, residential and industrial land were increasing stably. In the HRLU areas, woodland and grassland declined dramatically, but in the FLU areas, grassland decreased only by 12.0%, whereas woodland increased by 13.7%. LUCC was stronger in the earlier stage (1978–1987) than in the later stage (1987–1998) for the entire region. LUCC was more intense in the HRLU areas than in the FLU areas during the entire period (1978–1998). Policy was a key factor in the land use change, and water resources were a precondition in land use. Under the control of policy and water resources, the main human driving factors included population and economy, and the main natural restrictions were soil fertility and groundwater depth. Human driving factors controlled the land change in the HRLU areas, but natural restriction factors dominated in the FLU areas. In the mean time, intensification of LUCC in the region had some spatiotemporal implications with a fluctuation of impact factors.     

Engagement in the Third U.S. National Climate Assessment: commitment,capacity, and communication for impact

This paper examines the dynamics of energy investments and clean energy Research and Development (R&D) using a scenario-based modeling approach. Starting from the global scenarios proposed in the RoSE model ensemble experiment, we analyze the dynamics of investments under different assumptions regarding economic and population growth as well as availability of fossil fuel resources, in the absence of a climate policy. Our analysis indicates that economic growth and the speed of income convergence across countries matters for improvements in energy efficiency, both via dedicated R&D investments but mostly through capital-energy substitution. In contrast, fossil fuel prices, by changing the relative competitiveness of energy sources, create an economic opportunity for radical innovation in the energy sector. Indeed, our results suggest that fossil fuel availability is the key driver of investments in low carbon energy innovation. However, this innovation, by itself, is not sufficient to induce emission reductions compatible with climate stabilization objectives.     

风速垂直变化对催化剂扩散的影响

在寻求层状云中催化剂扩散议程的解时，一般都假定风速为常值，但实际上风速是随高度变化的。该文在云中催化剂的数值模式中考虑了风速随高度的变化，用差分格式求其解，并进行了个例计算和比较分析。     

上海市多层结构地下水系统准三维模型的改进

本文论述了地质构造在建立模型中的重要性,分析了上海市地下水系统准三维模型的优越性和所存在的问题,建立了反映上海地区水文地质特征的、对准三维模型有所改进的完整三维模型。      

软土地基坑中坑支护体系温度效应的数值分析

环境温度变化导致基坑支护结构内支撑轴力和变形过大的问题不容忽视。本文以福州地铁6号线潘墩站坑中坑工程为例,选取该基坑代表性区段采用ABAQUS程序及邓肯-张模型对其开挖和支护全过程进行三维有限元模拟,并将分析结果与现场部分监测数据进行对比,验证了所建模型及其材料参数取值的可靠性。同时,利用所建模型着重分析当地可能的季节或昼夜温差变化幅度内支撑轴力及围护墙水平位移的变化规律。结果表明：基坑开挖完成后,温度变化时支撑轴力与温度呈线性相关关系,轴力变化主要体现在内外坑的首道支撑上,此时围护结构整体向坑内或坑外运动,且地连墙侧移受温度影响范围主要集中在基坑开挖深度以上。不同开挖阶段的温度变化引起的温度效应相差较大,潘墩站最不利工况发生在最后一道支撑架设完毕后,此时地连墙水平位移增量及轴力变化幅度最大,温度效应最明显。该研究成果对类似软土基坑工程具有重要的理论和实践意义。     

南秦岭金龙山微细浸染型金矿成矿时代

 金龙山金矿带是南秦岭新发现的卡林型金矿带,主要产于上泥盆统南羊山组细碎屑岩—碳酸盐岩建造中,在上泥盆统冷水河组、下石炭统碳酸盐建造中也有产出,可分为明显受断裂控制的脉型金矿化和受有利岩性及小规模断裂、节理控制的浸染型矿化。     

公路路面热效应对环境气温的影响分析

为定量研究公路对气温观测的影响,本文使用2014年1—5月在陕西省开展的两组公路观测试验的逐分钟温度、风向、风速等气象资料,对比分析了合阳县国道和渭蒲高速公路在不同季节、不同天空状况以及不同背景风速条件下对周围环境气温观测的影响程度和影响距离。试验结果表明:公路对周围的环境温度有一定的增温影响,合阳国道对环境温度的增温影响至75m,增温效应达0.25~0.4℃。高速公路的增温影响至125m,增温效应达0.2~0.4℃。冬季,两条公路白天增温效应较夜间明显,春季,高速公路夜间增温更明显。晴天、多云天气比阴天、降雨天气增温程度大。公路对气温的增温影响存在风速阈值,当风速小于对应阈值时,增温效应明显。公路上来往车流量对气温有一定的叠加增温影响,合阳国道白天车流量150~350辆,叠加增温效应0.05~0.1℃,蒲渭高速白天车流量2000~3500辆,叠加增温效应0.16℃。     

Soil and Vegetation Spectral Coupling Difference (SVSCD) for Minerals Extraction from Hyperion Data in Vegetation Covered Area

Remote sensing data have been widely applied to extract minerals in geologic exploration, however, in areas covered by vegetation, extracted mineral information has mostly been small targets bearing little information. In this paper, we present a new method for mineral extraction aimed at solving the difficulty of mineral identification in vegetation covered areas. The method selected six sets of spectral difference coupling between soil and plant (SVSCD). These sets have the same vegetation spectra reflectance and a maximum different reflectance of soil and mineral spectra from Hyperion image based on spectral reflectance characteristics of measured spectra. The central wavelengths of the six, selected band pairs were 2314 and 701 nm, 1699 and 721 nm, 1336 and 742 nm, 2203 and 681 nm, 2183 and 671 nm, and 2072 and 548 nm. Each data set’s reflectance was used to calculate the difference value. After band difference calculation, vegetation information was suppressed and mineral abnormal information was enhanced compared to the scatter plot of original band. Six spectral difference couplings, after vegetation inhibition, were arranged in a new data set that requires two components that have the largest eigenvalue difference from principal component analysis (PCA). The spatial geometric structure features of PC1 and PC2 was used to identify altered minerals by spectral feature fitting (SFF). The collecting rocks from the 10 points that were selected in the concentration of mineral extraction were analyzed under a high-resolution microscope to identify metal minerals and nonmetallic minerals. Results indicated that the extracted minerals were well matched with the verified samples, especially with the sample 2, 4, 5 and 8. It demonstrated that the method can effectively detect altered minerals in vegetation covered area in Hyperion image.