南海周边海域越洋航线晴空颠簸的数值预报研究

采用WRF v3模式, 利用AMDAR资料与NCEP再分析资料, 对2007年发生于南海周边海域的高空越洋航线上, 110个中度以上晴空颠簸事例与196个无颠簸事例进行数值模拟。选取布朗指数、水平风切变指数等6个晴空颠簸诊断指数, 通过计算各指数的有颠簸诊断准确率、无颠簸诊断准确率、TS评分、ETS评分等指标, 研究指数及其阈值的适用性。研究表明:(1)布朗指数是诊断南海周边海域越洋航线上的晴空颠簸的最佳指数, 并在取"3.2×10^-5"为阈值时诊断效果最佳。(2)南海周边海域的越洋航线上的晴空颠簸对于诊断指数阈值的选取十分敏感, 在晴空颠簸的数值预报中, 在合理选择指数的基础之上, 应当认真研究设定指数的阈值。     

Long-term groundwater storage changes and land subsidence development in the North China Plain (1971–2015)

The North China Plain (NCP) has been suffering from groundwater storage (GWS) depletion and land subsidence for a long period. This paper collects data on GWS changes and land subsidence from in situ groundwater-level measurements, literature, and satellite observations to provide an overview of the evolution of the aquifer system during 1971–2015 with a focus on the sub-regional variations. It is found that the GWS showed a prolonged declining rate of ?17.8?±?0.1 mm/yr during 1971–2015, with a negative correlation to groundwater abstraction before year ~2000 and a positive correlation after ~2000. Statistical correlations between subsidence rate and the GWS anomaly (GWSA), groundwater abstraction, and annual precipitation show that the land subsidence in three sub-regions (Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei) represents different temporal variations due to varying driver factors. Continuous drought caused intensive GWS depletion (?76.1?±?6.5 mm/yr) and land subsidence in Beijing during 1999–2012. Negative correlations between total groundwater abstraction and land subsidence exhibited after the 1980s indicate that it may be questionable to infer subsidence from regional abstraction data. Instead, the GWSA generally provides a reliable correlation with subsidence. This study highlights the spatio-temporal variabilities of GWS depletion and land subsidence in the NCP under natural and anthropogenic impacts, and the importance of GWS changes for understanding land subsidence development.     

The spatial variation of alpine timberlines and their biogeographical characteristics in the northern Tianshan Mountains of China

Alpine timberline is a proper indicator of climate change and has received much attention in ecological research during the past decades. In this study, variations of alpine timberlines and their biogeographic characteristics were investigated by a combination of field surveys, climate indices, and soil nutrient analyses in the northern Tianshan Mountains (NTM) of northwest China. The timberline altitudes were probed to range from 2,530 to 2,800 m a.s.l. in the NTM, gradually descending from west to east along the V-shaped Ili valley (from Zhaosu to Xinyuan), and ascending from west to east across the northernmost range of the study area (from Bole to Balikun). The vertical widths between the upper and lower limits of the timberlines were widest in the middle NTM (Kuytun to Changji) and the Ili valley (Zhaosu to Xinyuan). Interactions between the terrain and air currents resulted in variant climates within the NTM, which contributed to significant timberline distribution differences. Although vertical width was positively correlated to soil nutrient (especially organic matter, r = 0.78), and timberline altitudes were positively related to the soil pH values, the temperature during the growing season primarily determines both altitude and vertical width. In conclusion, timberline altitudes were dominated by the combined effects of local topography, soil nutrient properties, water, and thermal conditions. Identifying the dominating influencing factors of NTM timberlines provided potential insights to better understand the effects of climate change on the alpine ecosystem over central Asia.     

基于AMDAR资料应用于中国周边海域飞机颠簸的统计分析

基于2002—2011年共10 a的AMDAR资料,用于中国周边海域(0~35°N,110~150°E)越洋飞行飞机颠簸的时空分布和变化规律分析。研究指出:南海比西北太平洋海域更容易发生重度以上的飞机颠簸;全年中6月最容易发生颠簸,而9月至次年2月发生重度和严重颠簸的百分率明显减小;5 km以下,发生轻度和重度颠簸的百分率随高度增大而减小,8 km以上重度颠簸的发生百分率稳定在0.2%左右,边界层顶和对流层顶附近容易发生严重颠簸,发生的百分率分别为0.27%和0.18%;随着风速增大发生颠簸的概率一般也增大,在对流层上层风速大于40 m/s时,发生重度和严重颠簸的百分率都明显增大,达到0.2%左右。冷半年风向为NNE以及暖半年风向为SSW时,发生重度颠簸的百分率达4%左右;严重颠簸发生在暖半年的概率较大,暖半年吹SSE至ESE风时,发生百分率为0.25%~0.3%,但暖半年吹正北风或冷半年吹正南风时,也易发生严重颠簸。     

钢悬链式立管与非线性海床土相互作用分析方法研究

对基于大挠度柔性梁理论的立管动力分析程序CABLE 3D改编,将原程序中立管受到线性海床的弹性支撑力扩充为立管受到的海床垂向力充分考虑管土非线性相互作用,使新程序中立管与海床土的相互作用遵循p-y曲线。采用伽辽金方法在空间内离散立管的动态方程,最终采用Newmark-β法进行时域内迭代求解。利用改编后的新程序分别研究了立管与线性海床土和非线性海床土相互作用的对比以及不同垂荡幅值情况下立管的动态响应。研究表明,非线性海床土能够更加准确地模拟真实的管土相互作用,触地点区域的节点会经历不同的管土相互作用过程。     

2022年汛期气候趋势预测与展望

中国是自然灾害频发的国家,气象灾害造成的损失占自然灾害造成损失的70%。2020年夏季出现超长梅雨期,长江和淮河发生洪水;2021年夏季,华北雨季开始早,结束晚,期间发生了“21·7”河南地区特大暴雨事件。这些气象灾害都对人民生命财产造成严重损失。因此,有必要提前对气候异常进行预测,以提高国家的防灾减灾能力。2022年3月,中国科学院大气物理研究所开展汛期（6～8月）的全国汛期气候趋势预测会商会。通过综合大气所各个数值模式和统计模型的结果,在未来4～6个月全球短期气候仍处在La Ni?a事件恢复到ENSO正常状态的背景下,预计2022年汛期（6～8月）,东北东部和中部、华北大部分地区、黄河中下游、东南沿海、西北地区中部、西藏大部分地区、西南地区东部和云南大部分地区降水正常略偏多,其中环渤海湾地区降水偏多2～5成,可能发生局地洪涝灾害。全国其他大部分地区降水正常略偏少,其中长江下游地区和新疆北部降水偏少2～5成。预计今年登陆台风数正常略偏多。由于未来ENSO的趋势演变具有一定的不确定性以及夏季降水受到中高纬大气环流季节内变化的影响,因此,此次汛期预测结果具有一定的不确定性。我们将根据2022年春末、夏初大气环流和海洋等因子的实际演变趋势,做进一步补充订正预测。     

Diversity and community structure of eukaryotic microalgae in surface sediments in the central Bohai Sea,China, based on a metabarcoding approach

Sediment samples were collected at 17 stations in the central Bohai Sea, China, and the diversity and community structure of eukaryotic microalgae were assessed by metabarcoding the V4 region of 18S rDNA. A total of 930 operational taxonomic units (OTUs) were detected for microeukaryotes, including 98 algal OTUs. The algal communities comprised 42 genera belonging to 19 classes of six phyla, and they were dominated by chrysophytes and dinoflagellates. Dinoflagellates were also the most diverse microalgal group. The nano-sized dinoflagellates Biecheleria halophila and Azadinium trinitatum occurred abundantly in the study area; however, they have not been reported previously, as they may be overlooked or misidentified in light microscopy. Many pico-sized chlorophytes were detected in the sediment samples. Sixteen of the detected OTUs were assigned to potentially harmful and/or bloom-forming microalgae, suggesting some potential risks of harmful algal blooms in the central Bohai Sea. The capacity of metabarcoding to detect morphologically cryptic and small species makes this method a sufficiently sensitive means of detection for assessing eukaryotic microalgae in sediments.

     

波浪作用下涵洞式直立堤水体交换特性研究

基于计算流体力学(CFD)数值模拟和物理模型试验结合的方式,开展涵洞式直立堤在波浪作用下的水体交换研究。CFD数值模拟采用VPM (volume-average/point-value method)-THINC (tangent of hyperbola for interface capturing)/QQ (quadratic surface representation and Gaussian quadrature)模型,并在此基础上提出一种能够标记涵洞内外水体变化的双液相流体体积模型(VOF)方法,定性及定量描述涵洞内外水体的交换特性;物理模型试验主要用来验证数值模型的准确性。研究表明,在波浪的作用下,涵洞内部会形成一股往复振荡的水流,对水体交换起到重要的作用。该振荡流主要受到涵洞高度、波浪周期以及波高的影响,涵洞深度对其影响不大。在波浪长时间的作用下,涵洞式直立堤能有效地增强港池内外水体交换。     

无人机倾斜摄影快速地形图测绘方法研究

近年来倾斜摄影测量技术由于其具有较好的灵活性,且生产效率高,周期短,成本低等特点,在测绘领域广泛使用。传统的地形图测绘对于外业的要求较高,需要大量的人力、物力和财力的支持,不仅浪费了大量资源而且内业出图效率较低。将无人机倾斜摄影测量获得的三维模型运用到室内,针对三维模型进行内业地形图绘制,有着巨大的优势和很好的应用前景。本文以山东科技大学校园为例,运用倾斜摄影测量技术建模,并针对三维模型运用EPS软件进行地形图测绘,具有一定的实际意义。     

Experimental study of the mechanical and thermal properties of lignin fiber-stabilized loess under freeze-thaw cycles北大核心CSCD

冻融循环作用是造成寒区工程病害的主要因素之一。为探究冻融循环对木质素纤维改良黄土力学和热学的影响,通过轻型击实试验、冻融循环试验、不固结不排水三轴剪切试验、热常数分析试验和X射线衍射试验,以木质素纤维掺量、冻融循环次数和围压为变量展开研究。结果表明：随着掺量的增加,改良黄土的最大干密度降低,最优含水率升高;随着冻融循环次数的增加,试样的应力-应变曲线由应变硬化型向应变弱软化型转变;试样的质量损失率、破坏强度、弹性模量、黏聚力、内摩擦角和导热系数均随着冻融循环次数的增加呈下降趋势,在经历第1次冻融循环后衰减率最高,并且总是在掺量为5%时达到最大值;试样的破坏强度和黏聚力在经历6~9次冻融循环后趋于稳定;黄土及掺量为5%的改良黄土在X射线衍射分析中成分相似,未发现新的物质生成,因此,木质素纤维是一种绿色的物理固化材料。该研究成果可为寒区土体加固提供新思路。