Methods of Three-part Quantitative Assessments of Undiscovered Mineral Resources: Examples from Victoria,Australia

Quantitative mineral resource assessments following the 3-part form rely on grade and tonnage models and probabilistic estimates of the number of undiscovered deposits. Assessments completed in Victoria, Australia, indicate that undiscovered mineral resources can be effectively estimated using grade and tonnage sub-models constructed using only medium- and large-tonnage deposits. Numbers of undiscovered deposits can be estimated on the basis of expert judgement or entirely by statistical means. Appropriate mathematical aggregation of individual expert views, expressed at interactive expert workshops, provides robust estimates of the number of undiscovered deposits. Underestimation of uncertainty, which is common in expert judgement, can be compensated by the statistical modification of individual interval estimates. In this study, the linear opinion pool was used as a simple and robust method of mathematical aggregation of multiple expert estimates of the number of undiscovered deposits. A general regression model, which estimates numbers of undiscovered deposits based on the size of the geologically permissive area and the median deposit tonnage, provided results generally compatible with those based on expert judgement or local deposit density models.     

Using simulated hydrologic response to revisit the 1973 Lerida Court landslide

Hydrologically driven mass wasting in the form of landslides on steep slopes is a worldwide occurrence. High-profile events in, for example, Brazil, Chile, the Philippines, Puerto Rico, and Venezuela during the last three decades all clearly illustrate, based upon significant losses of life and property, that hydrologically driven slope instability in developed (urban) areas can be a major geologic/environmental hazard. The focus of this study is the 1973 hydrologically driven Lerida Court landslide in Portola Valley, CA, USA. Physics-based hydrologic-response simulation, with the comprehensive Integrated Hydrology Model, was employed to forensically estimate the spatiotemporal pore pressure distributions for the Lerida Court site. Slope stability, driven by the simulated pore pressure dynamics, was estimated for the Lerida Court site with the infinite slope/Factor of Safety approach. The pore pressure dynamics for the Lerida Court site were reasonably captured by the hydrologic-response simulation. The estimated time of slope failure for the Lerida Court site compares well with field observations. A recommendation is made that hydrologically driven slope stability estimates including variably saturated subsurface flow be standard protocol for development sites in steep urban settings.     

Assessment of flexural analysis applied to the Sumatra-Java subduction zone

Indian Ocean subduction zone is one of the most active plate margins of the globe as evident from its vast record of great magnitude earthquake and tsunami events. We use Bouguer admittance (Morlet isostatic response function) in Sumatra-Java subduction zones comprising both the subduction and over-riding plates to determine the lithospheric mechanical strength variations. We determine effective elastic thickness (T _e ) for five oceanic windows (size 990 × 990 km²) by analyzing the admittance using Bouguer gravity and bathymetry data. The results show bimodal T _e values < 20 km for Sumatra and 20−40 km for Java. The lower bimodal values obtained for Sumatra appears to correlate well with the zones of historical seismicity. This is in sharp contrast with Java subduction zone, which shows higher T _e values (20–40 km) and apparently associated with low magnitude earthquakes. We suggest a strong and wide interseismic coupling for Sumatra between the subducting and over-riding plates, and deeper mantle contributing to low strength, shallow focus — high magnitude seismicity and vice versa for Java, leading to their seismogenic zonation.     

A flow-based pattern recognition algorithm for rapid quantification of geologic uncertainty

Geologic uncertainties and limited well data often render recovery forecasting a difficult undertaking in typical appraisal and early development settings. Recent advances in geologic modeling algorithms permit automation of the model generation process via macros and geostatistical tools. This allows rapid construction of multiple alternative geologic realizations. Despite the advances in geologic modeling, computation of the reservoir dynamic response via full-physics reservoir simulation remains a computationally expensive task. Therefore, only a few of the many probable realizations are simulated in practice. Experimental design techniques typically focus on a few discrete geologic realizations as they are inherently more suitable for continuous engineering parameters and can only crudely approximate the impact of geology. A flow-based pattern recognition algorithm (FPRA) has been developed for quantifying the forecast uncertainty as an alternative. The proposed algorithm relies on the rapid characterization of the geologic uncertainty space represented by an ensemble of sufficiently diverse static model realizations. FPRA characterizes the geologic uncertainty space by calculating connectivity distances, which quantify how different each individual realization is from all others in terms of recovery response. Fast streamline simulations are employed in evaluating these distances. By applying pattern recognition techniques to connectivity distances, a few representative realizations are identified within the model ensemble for full-physics simulation. In turn, the recovery factor probability distribution is derived from these intelligently selected simulation runs. Here, FPRA is tested on an example case where the objective is to accurately compute the recovery factor statistics as a function of geologic uncertainty in a channelized turbidite reservoir. Recovery factor cumulative distribution functions computed by FPRA compare well to the one computed via exhaustive full-physics simulations.     

The impact of over 100 years of wildfires on mercury levels and accumulation rates in two lakes in southern California,USA

In southern California, USA, wildfires may be an important source of mercury (Hg) to local watersheds. Hg levels and Hg accumulation rates were investigated in dated sediment cores from two southern California lakes, Big Bear Lake and Crystal Lake, located approximately 40-km apart. Between 1895 and 2006, fires were routinely minimized or suppressed around Big Bear Lake, while fires regularly subsumed the forest surrounding Crystal Lake. Mean Hg concentrations and mean Hg accumulation rates were significantly higher in Crystal Lake sediments compared to Big Bear Lake sediments (Hg levels: Crystal Lake 220 ± 93 ng g⁻¹, Big Bear Lake 92 ± 26 ng g⁻¹; Hg accumulation: Crystal Lake 790 ± 1,200 μg m⁻² year⁻¹, Big Bear 240 ± 54 μg m⁻² year⁻¹). In Crystal Lake, the ratio between post-1965 and pre-1865 Hg concentrations was 1.1, and several spikes in Hg levels occurred between 1910 and 1985. Given the remote location of the lake, the proximity of fires, and the lack of point sources within the region, these results suggested wildfires (rather than industrial sources) were a continuous source of Hg to Crystal Lake over the last 150 years.     

Geological characteristics of the Sizhuang gold deposit in the region of Jiaodong, Shandong Province——A study on tectono-geochemical ore prospecting of ore deposits

Tectono-geochemical samples were systematically collected from 5 drillcores along the No. 304 explora-tion line and at the -310 m level under the pit in the mining area, totalling 705 samples from the metamorphic rocks, granites, altered rocks and orebodies, and were determined for their contents of 20 kinds of elements including Au, Ag, As, Sb, Hg, Cu,,Pb, Zn, Sn, Bi, Mo, Co, Ni, Mn, Cr, V, Ti, Ba, Rb, Sr, etc. By using the Surfer software the geochemical exploration line profile maps for the 20 kinds of elements and the curves for the element geochemical contents of individual ore vein groups were established. In conbination with the geochemical map analytical method and Gregorian’s zoning index calculation method, the vertical, longitudinal and lateral zonation sequences of the elements were ascertained and the geochemical three-dimentional zonation model of the primary halos was estab-lished on the basis of the analysis of metallogenic structures and alteration zonation. Coupled with the results of analysis of the geology and geochemistry data, it may be concluded that the process of alteration of granites in the mining area is also accompanied with the process of gold enrichment and mineralization. With the intensification of alteration of granites from granite →potash feldspathization granite →sericite-quartz alteration granite, seric-ite-quartz rocks →beresitized granite, pyrite sericite-quartz rock, silicified granite →gold ore, the contents of thio-phile ore-forming elements such as Au, Ag, As, Cu, Bi, Mo, Pb, Sb, Hg, and Sn tended to increase. Factor analysis of trace elements indicated: factor F2 (Au, Ag, Cu, Sn, As) represents the element association brought in at the main stage of hydrothermal metallogenesis; factor F4 (Bi, Sb) and factor F5 (Pb, Zn) represent the ore-forming element association supperposed during the late stage of Au-bearing sulfides. By using the Gregorian’s zoning index and map analysis method we have ascertained the primary halo axial zonation sequence (form frontal halo →tail halo): Pb, Zn, Mn, Ba, Sr, Rb, As, Sb, Ag, Cu, Sn, Mo, Au, Bi, Hg, Ti, Cr, V, Ni, and Co. The geochemical anomalies in the mining area display a tendency of lateral plunging to WS, which is consistent with the lateral plunging of orebodies and mineralization alteration zone. Comprehensive analysis of the results of investigations on ore-controlling structures, mineralization-alteration zonation and geochemical zonation of the primary halos indicates that the gold orebodies in this area are still of greater extension.     

Phenocryst complexity in andesites and dacites from the Tequila volcanic field,Mexico: resolving the effects of degassing vs. magma mixing

The petrology of five phenocryst-poor (2–5%) andesites and dacites, all of which were erupted from different short-lived, monogenetic vents, is compared to that of phenocryst-rich (10–25%) andesites erupted from the adjacent stratovolcano, Volcán Tequila, in the Mexican arc. Despite differences in phenocryst abundances, these magmas have comparable phase assemblages (plagioclase + orthopyroxene + titanomagnetite + ilmenite + apatite ± augite ± hornblende), and similarly wide variations in phenocryst compositions, coupled to complex zoning patterns. For the phenocryst-poor lavas, equilibrium pairs of two Fe–Ti oxides lead to a narrow range of calculated temperatures for each sample that range from 934 (±24) to 1,073 (±6)°C and oxygen fugacities that range from +0.1 to +0.7 log units relative to the Ni–NiO buffer. Application of the plagioclase-liquid hygrometer to each sample at these calculated temperatures leads to maximum melt water concentrations of 4.6–3.1 wt% during plagioclase crystallization, indicating that the magmas were fluid saturated at depths ≥6.4–4.5 km. There is a wide, continuous range in the composition of plagioclase (≤44 mol% An) and orthopyroxene (≤16% Mg#) phenocrysts in each sample, which is consistent with a loss of dissolved water (≤2.8 wt%) from the melt phase during degassing as the magmas ascended rapidly to the surface. Evidence is presented that shows the effect of dissolved water is to reduce the activity of MgO relative to FeO in the melt phase, which indicates that degassing will also affect the Mg# of pyroxene phenocrysts, with higher melt water concentrations favoring Fe-rich pyroxene. Both plagioclase and orthopyroxene commonly display diffusion-limited growth textures (e.g., skeletal and hopper crystals, large interior melt hollows, and swallow tails), which are consistent with large undercoolings produced by degassing-induced crystallization. Therefore, degassing is proposed as a possible cause for the phenocryst compositional diversity documented in the phenocryst-poor andesite and dacite lavas erupted from peripheral vents, including the coexistence of normally zoned plagioclase and reversely zoned orthopyroxene. Degassing-induced crystallization may also explain some of the phenocryst complexity in crystal-rich andesites erupted from large stratovolcanoes, including Volcán Tequila.     

Fluid migration at the basement/sediment interface along the margin of the Southeast basin (France): implications for Pb–Zn ore formation

This study investigates the isotopic composition (C, O, S and Sr) of carbonates, sulphates and sulphide cements in the rock matrix and fracture fillings in geological formations of the Southeast basin of France, using core samples collected during the Deep Geology of France programme (GPF Ardèche theme). The Southeast basin belongs to the Alpine Tethyan margin. It is one of the thickest sedimentary basins in Europe, reaching upwards of 9 km in certain locations. The main fluid transfer from the basin is related to the large Pb–Zn Mississippi Valley-type district along the southern margin of the Massif Central block. A synthesis of the tectonic, mineralogical and petrographic investigations on the GPF boreholes shows that a major fluid circulation event occurred across the Alpine margin of Tethys during the Early Jurassic (Hettangian–Bathonian). It produced a general cementation of the rock porosity through precipitation of dolomite, sulphate and barite. Fracture fillings yield isotopic signatures distinct from the matrix cements. Matrix cements have particular characteristics, i.e. δ³⁴S and δ¹³C that agree with a marine origin. The δ³⁴S values of Permo-Carboniferous to Triassic sulphides from fracture cements are interpreted as resulting from the thermo-chemical reduction of sulphates. Fracture sulphates in the same geological formations yield δ³⁴S values that define a relatively homogeneous end-member, whose composition is similar to sulphates in the Largentière Pb–Zn ore deposit. The source of S is attributed to the Permo-Carboniferous succession. The borehole fracture fillings are attributed to a major fluid circulation stage compatible with the Early Jurassic stage identified from the geological investigation of the boreholes. The formation of the Largentière deposit is considered as resulting from the mixing of this Early Jurassic fluid with continental hydrothermal fluids circulating in a basement horst, along its margin with the sedimentary basin. Other Pb–Zn deposits may also be related to fluid migration along the basement/sedimentary cover interface in the eastern and western parts of the Massif Central. This regional fluid circulation event may represent a geodynamic marker of the Jurassic extensional phase.