京津冀城市群大气污染的时空特征与影响因素解析

京津冀城市群是中国雾霾最严重的区域,在京津冀协同发展背景下,探究该地区大气污染的时空分布和影响因素具有重要意义。运用空间自相关分析和三种空间计量模型,分析了京津冀202个区县PM_2.5的时空分异特征,创新性地对自然与人文影响因素贡献及其空间溢出效应进行系统地甄别和量化。结果表明：2000-2014年来京津冀城市群PM_2.5浓度整体呈上升趋势,季节上呈秋冬高、春夏低,空间上呈东南高、西北低的特点,且城市建成区PM_2.5浓度比周围郊区和农村平均高10~20 μg/m³;2014年仅有13.9%的区县空气质量达标,PM_2.5浓度存在显著的空间集聚性与扩散性,城市间交互影响距离平均为200 km,邻近地区的PM_2.5每升高1%,将导致本地PM_2.5至少升高0.5%;社会经济内因对PM_2.5主要是正向影响,自然外因主要是负向影响;影响因素中对本地大气污染的直接效应贡献强度依次是：年均风速>年均气温>人口密度>地形起伏度>第二产业占比>能源消费>植被覆盖度,人均GDP、年降水量和相对湿度对本地PM_2.5没有显著影响;对邻近地区大气污染具有显著空间溢出效应的因素排序是：植被覆盖度>地形起伏度>能源消费>人口密度;对于自然和人文影响因素应分别采取针对性的适应策略和调控策略,加强区域间联防联控与合作治理,在城市群规划中注重环保规划与立法。     

柴达木盆地盐湖锂矿床成矿过程及分布规律

柴达木盆地盐湖蕴藏230×10~4t锂,集中分布在别勒滩、东西台等4个盐湖,占我国卤水锂资源总量~80%,战略资源地位不言而喻。近年来提锂技术及工程化研究倍受重视,而对盐湖锂矿成因和分布规律的了解凸显不足,锂矿资源流失严重与之不无关联。研究查明,昆仑山高温热泉群含锂泉水长期注入洪—那河,流入终端盐湖,蒸发富集成矿;锂的年输入通量748.8 t,结合区内盐湖锂矿总储量保守估算,成矿期始于14 ka BP之后;洪—那河早期主要流向别勒滩,在山前冲积扇向北推进、扇前河改道北流后,方才形成含锂河水当前分配格局。据此,破解了别勒滩锂矿在研究区储量最大的原由。还查明了锂矿床仅存在于别勒滩,而在达布逊等3个区段不能成矿的原因。阐明了锂的来源与新生代火山喷发岩、深部岩浆房、昆仑大断裂活动有关,以及含锂热水持续远程输送至盐湖成矿的地貌和水文气候动因。企业应当根据锂的分布规律和矿床特征,迅速转变钾肥生产模式。     

晚冰期以来大柴旦盐湖沉积记录的古气候演变及其尘暴事件

本文选择大柴旦盐湖DCD03沉积剖面柱硼镁石矿层下伏土黄色淤泥质粉砂层为研究对象,基于AMS ₁₄C年代学、岩性地层学、矿物学以及地球化学等研究方法,旨在探讨土黄色湖相淤泥质粉砂沉积记录的尘暴事件,以及重建晚冰期以来西风环流显著影响区的水文气候变化。研究结果表明,DCD03沉积剖面的淤泥质粉砂样品粒度频率曲线呈现为双峰态,主峰(均值10 μm)反映了河流作用携带入湖的细粒组分,次峰(﹥32 μm)则反映了风力作用以及河流作用等携带入湖的粗粉砂粒组分。大于64 μm的砂砾组分可能代表外源风尘物质的输入,由尘暴天气携带入湖。大柴旦地区晚冰期以来依次出现了博令和阿勒罗德暖期(12.94~12.17 cal. ka BP)、新仙女木冷期(12.17~11.37 cal. ka BP)、不稳定的早全新世气候(11.37~8.64 cal. ka BP)以及趋于偏冷干的中全新世早期(8.64~7.39 cal. ka BP)。     

Quantitative Analysis of Central Asian Countries’ Energy Security and Its Political Influence Factors

Central Asian countries are located in the heartland of the Eurasian Continent. Their geographic location puts their energy flows under tremendous geopolitical pressure from the countries along their limited number of pipelines. With energy trade data from the United Nations Comtrade Statistics Database in the period from 2005 to 2016, this paper evaluates energy security of Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan (exporter) and Kyrgyzstan (importer) using three standards: correlativeness, diversity, and the impact of international relations. It concludes that Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan’s oil markets are balanced in terms of correlation and diversification, and thus less subject to geopolitical pressure. Turkmenistan’s gas markets, on the other hand, still have tremendous exposure to geopolitical risks for lack of diversification. Kyrgyzstan, as an energy importer, could rely on a few neighboring countries for energy supply. We found out that the three Central Asian countries’ energy security is largely determined by four political factors: the relationship with Russia, the new “great game” in Eurasia, the rise of China, and Central Asian regional geopolitical configuration.     

Estimating the Correlated Observation-Error Characteristics of the Chinese FengYun Microwave Temperature Sounder and Microwave Humidity Sounder

In operational data assimilation systems, observation-error covariance matrices are commonly assumed to be diagonal.However, inter-channel and spatial observation-error correlations are inevitable for satellite radiances. The observation errors of the Microwave Temperature Sounder(MWTS) and Microwave Humidity Sounder(MWHS) onboard the FengYun-3A(FY-3A) and FY-3B satellites are empirically assigned and considered to be uncorrelated when they are assimilated into the WRF model's Community Variational Data Assimilation System(WRFDA). To assimilate MWTS and MWHS measurements optimally, a good characterization of their observation errors is necessary. In this study, background and analysis residuals were used to diagnose the correlated observation-error characteristics of the MWTS and MWHS. It was found that the error standard deviations of the MWTS and MWHS were less than the values used in the WRFDA. MWTS had small inter-channel errors, while MWHS had significant inter-channel errors. The horizontal correlation length scales of MWTS and MWHS were about 120 and 60 km, respectively. A comparison between the diagnosis for instruments onboard the two satellites showed that the observation-error characteristics of the MWTS or MWHS were different when they were onboard different satellites. In addition, it was found that the error statistics were dependent on latitude and scan positions.The forecast experiments showed that using a modified thinning scheme based on diagnosed statistics can improve forecast accuracy.     

市域脑卒中疾病与气象因素的关系及预测

为了帮助医疗机构合理调配医务力量、床位和医疗药物,同时也帮助脑卒中高危人群及时采取干预措施,降低发病风险。本文对某市[1]四家医院2013—2016年脑卒中的就诊病例进行数据分析,将日就诊人数分为6个等级。然后,调取相应时段当地的逐日气象资料,采用支持向量机(SVM)和随机森林(RF)方法分别建立了日就诊人数预测模型和日就诊人数与气象因素的关系模型。研究结果表明:(1)脑卒中的日就诊人数为不平衡数据,这种数据特征将导致传统的预测模型正确率较低;(2)通过不断调整SVM预测模型的初始权重,经历了4次优化之后,使得日就诊人数的预测正确率从52.46%上升到94.56%;(3)随机森林模型的结果显示,影响脑卒中发病率的三大气象因素分别是最高气温、最低气温和平均气温。基于机器学习模型的脑卒中疾病与气象因素的研究成果,提高了医疗气象统计模型的预报准确率,具有较高的应用和推广价值。     

武汉市道路扬尘源排放清单及空间分布特征研究

参考AP-42方法的采样规范（USEPA,2011）,对武汉市13个城区的不同类型道路采集了137个扬尘样,并记录采样面积、车流情况、车道状况、地理位置、周围环境以及气象数据要素信息,得到了不同类型道路的积尘负荷,估算了其扬尘排放因子和排放量.结果表明：武汉总城区尘负荷由大到小顺序为支路 > 次干道 > 主干道 > 快速路,其中支路平均尘负荷为2.396 g/m²,快速路为0.852 g/m²,远城区平均尘负荷是主城区平均尘负荷的2倍左右.各类型道路不同粒径范围的道路交通扬尘排放因子大小顺序为支路 > 次干路 > 主干路 > 高速路,与尘负荷大小趋势一致.2016年道路交通扬尘源TSP的年排放量为156 931.4 t,PM₁₀的年排放量为39 868.7 t,PM_2.5的年排放量为11 574.8 t,其不确定性范围分别为-24.7%~31.4%、-31.3%~32.9%、-31.8%~30.5%.其中主干道扬尘排放量最大,其TSP、PM₁₀和PM_2.5的年排放量分别为64 447.1、16 372.9和4 753.4 t.     

THE DOUBLE-LAYER STRUCTURE OF THE HADLEY CIRCULATION AND ITS INTERDECADAL EVOLUTION CHARACTERISTICS

Based on the three-pattern decomposition of global atmospheric circulation(TPDGAC), this study investigates the double-layer structure of the Hadley circulation(HC) and its interdecadal evolution characteristics by using monthly horizontal wind field from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data from 1948—2011. The following major conclusions are drawn: First, the double-layer structure of the HC is an objective fact, and it constantly exists in April,May, June, October and November in the Southern Hemisphere. Second, the double-layer structure is more obvious in the Southern than in the Northern Hemisphere. Since the double-layer structure is sloped in the vertical direction, it should be taken into consideration when analyzing the variations of the strength and location of the center of the HC.Third, the strength of the double-layer structure of the HC in the Southern Hemisphere consistently exhibits decadal variations with a strong, weak and strong pattern in all five months(April, May, June, October, and November), with cycles of 20-30 a and 40-60 a. Fourth, the center of the HC(mean position of the double-layer structure) in the Southern Hemisphere consistently and remarkably shifts southward in all the five months. The net poleward shifts over the 64 years are 5.18°, 2.11°, 2.50°, 1.79° and 5.76° for the five respective months, with a mean shift of 3.47°.     

亚洲季风区不同形态中尺度对流系统的特征分析

利用16 a的TRMM卫星观测资料,分析了亚洲季风区准圆状、线状和拉长状中尺度对流系统(MCSs)的空间分布、对流属性及其区域变化特征。结果表明:拉长状MCSs的数量最多,准圆状的其次而线状的最少。自西向东,准圆状(线状)MCSs数量占各区域MCSs总数的比例逐渐减小(增加),线状MCSs在副热带和洋面地区的产生几率相比更大。MCSs的发生频次呈现以暖季(5—9月)为峰值的单峰分布,准圆状和拉长状MCSs的暖季峰值比线状MCSs的大。MCSs主要发生在下午—傍晚时段,但线状MCSs在午夜—凌晨出现的概率比其它两种大。3种类型MCSs的整体强度基本表现为副热带地区弱于近热带地区,但不同类型MCSs的强度差异在各区域不尽相同,如中国中东部地区和西北太平洋地区的准圆状MCSs强度最强,但东海及其以东洋面的线状MCSs强度最强。     

国家自然科学基金项目资助的地貌学研究现状与效应

通过对2010-2015年国家自然科学基金资助下地貌学研究项目的总体状况、项目类型、依托单位、研究区域、人才队伍、研究热点、成果产出、获奖及社会效应等方面的分析,归纳概括地貌学的研究现状与态势等。结果表明：近5年来,地貌学获得的资助项目呈上升趋势,相关研究不断深入,各类研究团队显著壮大;研究系统已由高等院校为主逐渐发展成高等院校与科研机构并行的格局;不同地域地貌学研究的发展程度、研究对象及热点问题均表现出一定的区域不均衡性;构造、河流水文、黄土、冰川、风沙等是目前中国地貌学研究的主体方向。从资助项目的研究成果和产生效应来看,地貌学研究得到恢复和较快速发展,发表论文的数量和质量稳步提升,资助项目成果获奖层次高、社会效益显著。