A Markov-chain model for winterstrength in the upper Danube Region

A Markov-chain model is fitted to the series of winter-strength parameters of five stations in the upper Danube Region. The validity of the model is tested by an appropriate Gaussian test-statistic. Having calculated the matrices of transition probabilities, boundaries for them are derived from the theory of Markov-chains as well as means of the first transition times with their standard deviations; further, forecasts are derived for the next but one winter. As in all cases the standard deviations for prognostic values are rather large one should be very careful in making annual forecasts, which is also demonstrated by a testforecast.     

Univ.-Prof. Dr. Ferdinand Steinhauser — Zum 75. Geburtstag

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

C‐band SAR backscatter characteristics of Arctic sea and land ice during winter

Abstract

Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data has become an important tool for studies of polar regions, due to high spatial resolution even during the polar night and under cloudy skies. We have studied the temporal variation of sea and land ice backscatter of twenty‐four SAR images from the European Remote Sensing satellite (ERS‐1) covering an area in Lady Ann Strait and Jones Sound, Nunavut, from January to March 1992. The presence of fast ice in Jones Sound and glaciers and ice caps on the surrounding islands provides an ideal setting for temporal backscatter studies of ice surfaces. Sample regions for eight different ice types were selected and the temporal backscatter variation was studied. The observed backscatter values for each ice type characterize the radar signatures of the ice surfaces. This time series of twenty‐four SAR images over a 3‐month period provides new insights into the degree of temporal variability of each surface. Ice caps exhibit the highest backscatter value of ‐3.9 dB with high temporal variability. Valley glacier ice backscatter values decrease with decreasing altitude, and are temporally the most stable, with standard deviations of 0.08–0.10 dB over the 90‐day period.

First‐year ice and lead ice show a negative trend in backscatter values in time and a positive correlation of up to 0.59 with air temperature over the 90‐day period. For first‐year ice and lead ice, episodes of large temperature fluctuations (±12°C) are associated with rapid changes in backscatter values (±2 dB). We attribute the backscatter increase to a temperature‐induced increase in brine volume at the base of the snow pack. Multi‐year ice, conglomerate ice and shore ice are relatively stable over the 3‐month period, with a backscatter variation of only a few dBs. An observed lag time of up to three days between backscatter increase/decrease and air temperature can be attributed to the insulation effect of the snow cover over sea ice. The net range of the backscatter values observed on the most temporally stable surface, valley glacier ice, of about 0.30 dB indicates that the ERS‐1 SAR instrument exceeds the 1 dB calibration accuracy specified for the Alaska SAR Facility processor for the three winter months.     

Rapid decrease of soil erosion rates with soil formation and vegetation development in periglacial areas

High mountainous areas are geomorphologically active environments which are strongly shaped by redistribution of sediments and soils. With the projected climate warming in the twenty-first century and the continued retreat of glaciers, the area of newly exposed, highly erodible sediments and soils will increase. This presents a need to better understand and quantify erosion processes in young mountainous soils, as an increase in erodibility could threaten human infrastructure (i.e. hydroelectric power, tourist installations and settlements). While soil development is increasingly well understood and quantified, a coupling to soil erosion rates is still missing. The aim of this study was, therefore, to assess how soil erosion rates change with surface age. We investigated two moraine chronosequences in the Swiss Alps: one in the siliceous periglacial area of Steingletscher (Sustenpass), with soils ranging from 30 a to 10 ka, and the other in the calcareous periglacial area of Griessgletscher (Klausenpass) with surfaces ranging from age of 110 a to 13.5 ka. We quantified the erosion rates using the ^239+240Pu fallout radionuclides and compared them to physical and chemical soil properties and the vegetation coverage. We found no significant differences between the two parent materials. At both chronosequences, the erosion rates were highest in the young soils (on average 5−10 t ha^-1 a^-1 soil loss). Erosion rates decreased markedly after 3−5 ka of soil development (on average 1−2.5 t ha^-1 a^-1 soil loss) to reach a more or less stable situation after 10−14 ka (on average 0.3–2 t ha^-1 a^-1). Climate change not only causes glacier retreat, but also increased sediment dynamics. Depending on the relief and vegetational development, it takes up to at least 10 ka to reach soil stability. The establishment of a closed vegetation cover with dense root networks seems to be the controlling factor in the reduction of soil erodibility. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Boron isotopes as an artificial tracer

A field study was conducted using a combination of intrinsic and artificial tracers to estimate travel times and dilution during transport of infiltrate from a reclaimed water infiltration basin to nearby monitoring wells. A major study objective was to validate boric acid enriched in (10)B as an artificial tracer. Basin 10E at the Rio Hondo Spreading Grounds in Whittier, California, was the site of the test. The basin normally receives a mixture of treated municipal waste water, purchased State Project water, and local runoff from the San Gabriel River. Approximately 3.5 kg of (10)B-enriched boric acid was dispersed among 2.05 x 10(5) m(3) of basin water to initiate the experiment. The resultant median delta(11)B in the infiltration basin was -71 per thousand. Prior to tracer addition, the basin water had an intrinsic delta(11)B of +2 per thousand. Local monitoring wells that were used to assess travel times had delta(11)B values of +5 per thousand and +8 per thousand at the time of tracer addition. Analytic results supported an assumption that boron is conserved during ground water transport and that boron enriched in (10)B is a useful artificial tracer. Several intrinsic tracers were used to reinforce the boric acid tracer findings. These included stable isotopes of oxygen (delta(18)O) and hydrogen (deltaD), sulfate concentration, and the boron to chloride ratio. Xenon isotopes, (136)Xe and (124)Xe, also supported boron isotope results. Xenon isotopes were added to the recharge basin as dissolved gases by investigators from the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory.     

Ein Diagramm zur Auswertung dest-Tests

Zusammenfassung Es wird ein Diagramm für dent-Test gegeben, aus dem man bei Kenntnis vonf, d undS allein entscheiden kann, ob die Stichprobe einent-Wert ergibt, der größer alst ist, oder nicht.

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Summary A graph is given for thet-test, by means of which one can decide whether the sample would give a value oft larger thant or not, only from the knowledge. off, d andS.

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Résumé L'auteur présente, pour le testt, un diagramme qui permet de dire si la valeur det dépasse celle det ou non, à la seule connaissance def, d etS.

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Mit 1 Textabbildung     

Postglacial climates inferred from a lake at treeline,southwest Yukon Territory,Canada

Pollen, chironomid, and ostracode records from a lake located at alpine treeline provide regional paleoclimate reconstructions from the southwest Yukon Territory, Canada. The pollen spectra indicate herbaceous tundra existed on the landscape from 13.6–11 ka followed by birch shrub tundra until 10 ka. Although Picea pollen dominated the assemblages after 10 ka, low pollen accumulation rates and Picea percentages indicate minimal treeline movement through the Holocene. Chironomid accumulation rates provide evidence of millennial-scale climate variability, and the chironomid community responded to rapid climate changes. Ostracodes were found in the late glacial and early Holocene, but disappeared due to chemical changes of the lake associated with changes in vegetation on the landscape. Inferred mean July air temperature, total annual precipitation, and water depth indicate a long-term cooling with increasing moisture from the late glacial through the Holocene. During the Younger Dryas (12.9–11.2 ka), cold and dry conditions prevailed. The early and mid-Holocene were warm and dry, with cool, wet conditions after 4 ka, and warm, dry conditions since the end of the Little Ice Age.