China's urban transition

This article describes recent changes in urban patterns in Shanghai-Nanjing, Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan, Canton-Hong Kong, and Dalian-Shenyang. The urban patterns in these metropolitan areas are viewed as part of an urban transition that is responding to population growth, a structural shift in employment, relaxed rules on migration and household registration, and foreign investment and trade. It is argued that these metropolitan coastal areas will form the key growth centers and will lead China's economic development. Urban transition is defined as the shift from rural to urban and from agricultural employment to industrial, commercial, or service employment. China's large cities always dominated as important centers of politics and trade. The recent shift is from interior to coastal cities due to a new world view and a movement away from the isolationism of prior centuries. It is assumed that cities are formed to take advantage of economies of scale in production, consumption, and distribution and to conform to regional specialization. Governments can intervene in growth processes. China's development of cities reflects state controls and market forces. The size and scale of China's population influenced the development process, which resulted in differences in the shape and process of the urban transition. It was under Chinese communism that cities became more than a set of discrete regional urban systems. Reference is made to Oshima's model of change that is specific to monsoon countries. Oshima argues that monsoon agricultural conditions require a distinct strategy based on full employment in order to achieve industrial transition. Rice cultivation requires a large and disciplined labor force. The discussion focuses on other models as well, such as the McGee's model of the extended metropolis and its extension by Zhou Yixing to China. China's changes may not follow Skeldon's models of urbanization in developing countries, because of state control of migration. However, the longer migrants remain in cities the more likely Skeldon's models of early European transitions apply to China's urban transition.     

Extensive-Dilatancy Anisotropy (Eda) Inferred From Observations of Crustal Shear Waves Generated By A Refraction Experiment In Northern Scandinavia

Summary. Particle-motion plots of shear waves have been studied for the section FG of the FENNOLORA seismic experiment. Shear-wave splitting is observed on some records and the polarization of the first arriving shear waves show two peaks at about N35°W and N65°E. These results can be interpreted as being due to crack-induced anisotropy with the crack direction dominated by a (dominant) horizontal stress around N35°W. This is consistent with in situ stress measurements and focal mechanism studies in Scandinavia. the results show that seismic refraction experiments may be useful in providing evidence of crack-induced anisotropy in the stable continental crust.     

Palaeolimnological records of shallow lake biodiversity change: exploring the merits of single versus multi-proxy approaches

Shallow lakes are among the most threatened ecosystems in the world and many contemporary studies have demonstrated declines in biodiversity due to anthropogenic forcing. Mostly, however, these studies have not covered the full period of human-induced diversity change in lakes which is typically over decades-centuries. Here we provide two examples of palaeoecological studies focussed on reconstructing biodiversity changes in contrasting shallow lake environments that demonstrate the efficacy of the approach—a shallow UK lake and a suite of floodplain lakes (called billabongs) in the Murray-Darling basin, Australia. In the Murray-Darling billabongs, complex sedimentary processes operate, sediment chronologies are less certain and replication of sites is needed to confirm patterns. The combination of sediment records from 10 billabongs showed that diatom diversity changes pre- and post-European (>1850) disturbance were inconsistent; however, reductions in diversity were more common and appear to reflect reductions in macrophyte abundance. At Felbrigg Lake, a multi-proxy study with strong chronological control demonstrated divergent responses of macrophyte, diatom, cladoceran and chironomid richness and diversity to a century of eutrophication. Eutrophication of the site was qualitatively inferred from changes in the macrophyte community in turn reconstructed from plant macrofossils. Benthic cladocerans showed a consistent decline in richness through the record, reflecting the gradual reduction in their macrophyte associated habitat over the past century. Diatom richness and diversity responses were complex, with increases in diversity and richness linked to both increases and decreases in macrophyte species richness and abundance. Chironomid richness and diversity patterns were less consistently linked to eutrophication. The loss of the dominant zooplanktivore (perch) in the 1970s was reflected in the richness and diversity profiles for all groups. Our study reveals clear potential for using sediment cores to infer biodiversity change in shallow lakes and shallow lake regions. However, given the contrasting patterns of diversity change for the different biological groups both in Felbrigg Lake and between Felbrigg and the billabongs, caution is required when interpreting whole-ecosystem biodiversity changes (or the absence of change) based on single as opposed to multi-proxy studies.     

Comparisons between the reproductive biology of black bream Acanthopagrus butcheri (Teleostei: Sparidae) in four estuaries with widely differing characteristics

The reproductive biology of Acanthopagrus butcheri has been studied in the permanently open Swan River and intermittently open Moore River estuaries on the lower west coast of Australia (31--32 °S) and in the permanently open Nornalup Walpole and normally closed Wellstead estuaries on the southern coast of Western Australia (34--35 °S). Trends exhibited by gonadosomatic indices, gonadal maturity stages and the sizes and developmental stages of the oocytes demonstrate that A. butcher typically spawns in spring and early summer. However, spawning occurred in salinities ranging from as low as 3.5-8 g L^–1 in the Moore River Estuary to as high as 41-45 g L^–1 in the Wellstead Estuary. Furthermore, water temperatures during spawning were greater in the two northern estuaries (19.7--28.5 °C) than in the two southern and cooler estuaries (17.5--23.4 °C). Histological studies strongly indicate that A. butcheri spawn more than once in a breeding season and demonstrate that the development of its oocytes exhibits group synchrony sensu de Vlaming (1983). The ages and total lengths at which, on average, female and male A. butcheri both first attain maturity in the Swan River Estuary were ca 2 years and ca 215 mm. However, the age at which individual fish in that system reach maturity was influenced by body size. This suggests that the attainment of first maturity at an older age but smaller length in the Moore River and Nornalup Walpole estuaries than is the case in the Swan River Estuary is a consequence of the slower growth rates of A. butcheri in those estuaries. The combination of the young age (ca 2 years) but small length (ca 145 mm) at which maturity is first attained in the Wellstead Estuary could have resulted from selection pressures brought about by high mortality rates and/or heavy fishing pressure in this estuary. The mean fecundity of A. butcheri, based on the combined number of yolk vesicle and yolk granule oocytes found in ovaries just prior to the onset of spawning, was 1580 × 10³. The significance of the sizes at first maturity, minimum legal length for capture, mesh selectivity data and closure of certain regions of estuaries to fishing for the management of the recreational and commercial fishery for A. butcheri is discussed.     

Land use and climate change on the Yamal Peninsula of north-west Siberia: some ecological and socio-economic implications

Compared to climate, land use change is expected to comprise a more important component of global change in the coming decades. However, climate is anticipated to supass land use as a factor later in the next century, particularly in the Arctic. Discussed here are the implications of land use and climate change on the Yamal peninsula of north-west Siberia, homeland of the Yamal Nenets. Since the discovery of super-giant natural gas fields in the 1960s, extensive exploration has resulted in direct withdrawal of large areas for infrastructure development and associated disturbance regimes have led to cumulative impacts on thousands of additional hectares of land. The land withdrawals have pushed a relatively consistent or increasing number of reindeer onto progressively smaller parcels of pasture. This has led to excessive grazing and trampling of lichens, bryophytes and shrubs and, in many areas, erosion of sandy soils via deflation. The low Arctic tundra lies entirely within the continuous permafrost zone and ice-rich substrates are widespread. One implication of this is that both anthropogenic and zoogenic distubance regimes may easily initiate thermokarst and aeolian rosion, leading to significant further losses of pastures. Even without industrial distubance, a slight change of the climate would result in massive thermokarst erosion. This would have negative consequences equal to or greater than the mechanical distubances described above. The synergistic effects of land use coupled with climate, change therefore have profound implication for the ecosystems of Yamal, as well as the future of the Nenets culture, society and economy.     

RHESSI Microflares: II. Implications for Loop Structure and Evolution

We present simple analytic models which predict the peak X-ray emission measure and temperature attained in flares in which the chromospheric evaporation process takes place either in a single ‘monolithic’ loop or in a loop consisting of several filaments that are created successively as the energy release process proceeds in time. As possible mechanisms driving chromospheric evaporation we consider both classical heat conduction from the loop top and non-thermal electron beams. The model predictions are tested for a set of 18 well studied RHESSI microflares. The results suggest beam driven evaporation in filamented loops as being capable of accounting for the observed emission measures and temperatures though there are issues with the very high beam densities needed. On the other hand, estimates of the emission measures achieved by conductive evaporation which are derived by using the Rosner – Tucker – Vaiana (RTV) scaling law are much larger than the observed ones. Possible reasons for this discrepancy are discussed.     

Validation of an annual cycle simulation with a T42-L20 GCM

An annual cycle of an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) is presented. The winter and summer zonal averages of the atmospheric fields are compared with an observed climatology. The main features of the observed seasonal means are well reproduced by the model. One of the main discrepancies is that the simulated atmosphere is too cold, particularly in its upper part. Some other discrepancies might be explained by the interannual variability. The AGCM surface fluxes are directly compared to climatological estimates. On the other hand, the calculation of meridional heat transport by the ocean, inferred from the simulated energy budget, can be compared to transport induced from climatologies. The main result of this double comparison is that AGCM fluxes generally are within the range of climatological estimates. The main deficiency of the model is poor partitioning between solar and non-solar heat fluxes in the tropical belt. The meridional heat transport also reveals a significant energy-loss by the Northern Hemisphere ocean north of 45° N. The possible implications of model surface flux deficiencies on coupling with an oceanic model are discussed.This paper was presented at the International Conference on Modelling of Global Climate Change and Variability, held in Hamburg 11–15 September 1989 under the auspices of the Meteorological Institute of the University of Hamburg and the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. Guest Editor for these papers is Dr. L. Dümenil