Spatial reconstruction of rainfall fields from rain gauge and radar data

Rainfall is a phenomenon difficult to model and predict, for the strong spatial and temporal heterogeneity and the presence of many zero values. We deal with hourly rainfall data provided by rain gauges, sparsely distributed on the ground, and radar data available on a fine grid of pixels. Radar data overcome the problem of sparseness of the rain gauge network, but are not reliable for the assessment of rain amounts. In this work we investigate how to calibrate radar measurements via rain gauge data and make spatial predictions for hourly rainfall, by means of Monte Carlo Markov Chain algorithms in a Bayesian hierarchical framework. We use zero-inflated distributions for taking zero-measurements into account. Several models are compared both in terms of data fitting and predictive performances on a set of validation sites. Finally, rainfall fields are reconstructed and standard error estimates at each prediction site are shown via easy-to-read spatial maps.     

Long-term large wood load fluctuations in two low-order streams in Southern Chile

The eco-hydrogeomorphic significance of large wood (LW) and its potential for increasing downstream hazards during extreme floods have been widely recognized. We used LW data collected for a 10-year period from the two low-order streams of Pichún (Pi) and Vuelta de Zorra (VZ) in Southern Chile to (a) determine if the abundance and dimensions of individual LW pieces change with time, (b) quantify wood load fluctuations during the 10-year period, and (c) assess the role of LW recruitment from the riparian forests to explain wood load fluctuations during the study period. Nine years after the first survey, the number of LW pieces in Pi and VZ diminished by 60 and 40%, respectively. Despite the reduction in these numbers, in Pi, the LW dimensions did not change significantly during the study. In VZ, the dimensions exhibited statistically significant differences, despite being within the same class. In both catchments, the LW load fluctuated during a 10-year period, but the drivers of change differed. Although tree toppling was the recruitment mechanism responsible for LW in both stream cases, the high wood load measured in Pi at the beginning of the study suggested massive tree recruitments before the first survey, followed by wood exports which were higher than inputs in the subsequent 10-year period. In VZ, LW load decreased during the first 9 years (mean annual rate of ~9.2 m³ year⁻¹) and then increased by ~12.1 m³ year⁻¹ in year 10. At VZ, the inputs consisted of single trees that were recruited from the riparian area and by upstream flotation, while exports occurred by downstream fluvial transport. Wood inputs and exports occurred asynchronously and led to LW load fluctuations at decadal and annual intervals. Land management and tree species thus exert a major influence on wood inventory and budget in streams. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Carbon and oxygen diffusion in calcite: Effects of Mn content and P H2O

The diffusion rates of carbon and oxygen in two calcite crystals of different Mn contents have been studied between 500° and 800° C in a CO₂-H₂O atmosphere (P _{CO 2}=1?5 bars, P _H2_O=0.02?24 bars) labeled with ¹³C and ¹⁸O. Isotope concentration gradients within annealed specimens were measured using a secondary ion microprobe by depth profiling parallel and perpendicular to the c axis. Despite the anisotropic structure of calcite, the diffusion of carbon and oxygen are both very nearly isotropic. Least-squares fitting of the carbon data to an Arrhenius relation gives an activation energy of 87±2 kcal/mole, with D ₀ terms dependent only slightly upon direction: 1 $$D_{\text{0}} {\text{(}}\parallel c{\text{) = }}\left( {9\frac{{ + 12}}{{ - 5}}} \right){\text{x10}}^{\text{2}} cm^2 /s$$ , 2 $$D_{\text{0}} {\text{(}} \bot c{\text{) = }}\left( {5\frac{{ + 6}}{{ - 3}}} \right){\text{x10}}^{\text{2}} cm^2 /s$$ . These results are in close agreement with previous determinations. Results for oxygen diffusion, however, give D values much larger than those previously reported for dry conditions; at 650° to 800° C the D values are two orders of magnitude larger. The diffusion of oxygen, unlike carbon, is strongly dependent on water pressure, as well as Mn content, and does not fit an Arrhenius relation over the entire temperature range. On the basis of these observations and considerations of the defect chemistry of calcite, it is proposed that carbon migrates as a Frenkel pair. The diffusion of oxygen, however, appears to be more complicated and may depend upon several simultaneous mechanisms.     

Turbulent Structure of a Simplified Urban Fluid Flow Studied Through Stereoscopic Particle Image Velocimetry

Stereoscopic particle image velocimetry was used to provide a three-dimensional characterization of the flow around a simplified urban model defined by a 5 by 7 array of blocks, forming four parallel streets, perpendicular to the incoming wind direction corresponding to a zero angle of incidence. Channeling of the flow through the array under consideration was observed, and its effect increased as the incoming wind direction, or angle of incidence (AOI), was changed from \(0^{\circ }\) to \(15^{\circ }\), \(30^{\circ }\), and \(45^{\circ }\). The flow between blocks can be divided into two regions: a region of low turbulence kinetic energy (TKE) levels close to the leeward side of the upstream block, and a high TKE area close to the downstream block. The centre of the arch vortex is located in the low TKE area, and two regions of large streamwise velocity fluctuation bound the vortex in the spanwise direction. Moreover, a region of large spanwise velocity fluctuation on the downstream block is found between the vortex legs. Our results indicate that the reorientation of the arch vortex at increasing AOI is produced by the displacement of the different TKE regions and their interaction with the shear layers on the sides and top of the upstream and downstream blocks, respectively. There is also a close connection between the turbulent structure between the blocks and the wind gusts. The correlations among gust components were also studied, and it was found that in the near-wall region of the street the correlations between the streamwise and spanwise gusts \(R_{uv}\) were dominant for all four AOI cases. At higher wall-normal positions in the array, the \(R_{uw}\) correlation decreased with increasing AOI, whereas the \(R_{uv}\) coefficient increased as AOI increased, and at \({\textit{AOI}}=45^{\circ }\) all three correlations exhibited relatively high values of around 0.4.     

Simulating the mobile barrier (MOSE) operation in the Venice Lagoon, Italy: global sea level rise and its implication for navigation

Three years of mobile barrier operations have been simulated with a hydrodynamic model to check the efficiency of the barriers in defending the city of Venice from flooding. The simulations have been carried out in the actual situation and with a sea-level rise of 30 and 50 cm. Moreover, the interference of the barrier operations with the ship traffic has been studied. It is found that without a security increment for the forecasted water levels, the mobile barriers cannot defend completely Venice from flooding due to the uncertainty in the forecast. With a security increment of 10 cm, the barriers work well in actual conditions but still cannot avoid flooding with a global sea-level rise. The interference with the ship traffic is acceptable under actual conditions but becomes prohibitive with a sea-level rise of 50 cm, when nearly two-thirds of the ship passages are blocked or delayed.     

Systematique U-Pb et Evolution du Gisement d'Uranium de Lodève (France)

Résumé Considérée comme syngénétique ou diagénétique précoce, la minéralisation uranifère de la couche 0 de l'Autunien du bassin de Lodève a été étudiée par la méthode U-Pb sur roches totales. Les données U-Pb démontrent l'existence de perte en radon, principalement dans la chaine de désintégration de ²³⁸U, et l'intérêt de l'utilisation du couple ²⁰⁷Pb-²³⁵U pour la détermination des âges de cristallisation des concentrations uranifères. Pour la couche 0, deux phases de remobilisation de l'uranium et du plomb ont pu être déterminées respectivement à 173±6 Ma et 108±5 Ma. La plus ancienne de ces deux phases est la plus marquée dans les échantillons étudiés, dont les systèmes U-Pb ne montrent pas la mémoire d'une concentration uranifère permienne. La première mobilisation de l'uranium et du plomb s'est faite lors d'une phase de distension à 160–170 Ma, affectant la croûte continentale du Sud du Massif Central. Cette phase a provoqué la circulation de fluides minéralisés et est marquée par une recristallisation des illites des pélites permiennes entre 100 et 200 °C (du fait de l'élévation du gradient géothermique) et par la mise en place d'un volcanisme d'origine mantellique daté à 155±6 Ma. La composition isotopique en plomb d'une galène de l'Autunien du Lodévois, est analogue à celles des feldspaths des granitoïdes du Massif Central français et à celles des galènes des minéralisations stratiformes de Pb-Zn des Causses, ce qui fournit un argument pour faire dériver au moins une partie des métaux en traces dans les pélites autuniennes de l'altération de la croûte continentale hercynienne environnante.

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In the Lodeve basin, the uraniferous mineralization associated with the autunian pelitic layer 0 is usually considered as syngenetic or early diagenetic. U-Pb isotopic data performed on U bearing whole rocks demonstrate occurrence of radon losses, mainly in the ²³⁸U decay series; the ²⁰⁷Pb-²³⁵U geochronometer is particularly suitable to date U-Pb systems disturbed by such radon losses. For the autunian layer 0, two U-Pb mobilization phases have been respectively recognized at 173±6 Ma and 108±5 Ma. The oldest phase is the most clearly expressed in the studied samples, no memory of a permian age could be recognized in the U-Pb systems. The first U-Pb mobilization occurred 170 Ma ago, during a distension phase of the continental crust. This phase induced circulations of mineralized fluids, illite recristallization in the permian pelites at temperatures ranging from 100 to 200 °C and emplacement of a mantellic volcanism recently dated at 155±6 Ma. A galena from the Autunian of the Lodeve basin, the feldspars of the surrounding variscan granitoïds and galenas of mesozoïc stratiform deposits in the Causses, present similar Pb isotopic composition, which is in agreement with the hypothesis that some metals of the autunian pelites originated in the surrounding weathered variscan continental crust.

     

Dual polarization radar Lagrangian parameters: a statistics-based probabilistic nowcasting model

The aim of this study is to present a statistics-based Lagrangian nowcasting model to predict intense rainfall convective events based on dual polarization radar parameters. The data employed in this study are from X-band radar collected during the CHUVA-Vale campaign from November 2011 to March 2012 in southeast Brazil. The model was designed to catch the important physical characteristics of storms, such as the presence of supercooled water above 0 °C isotherm, vertical ice crystals in high levels, graupel development in the mixed-phase layer and storm vertical growth, using polarimetric radar in the mixed-phase layer. These parameters are based on different polarimetric radar quantities in the mixed phase, such as negative differential reflectivity (Z _DR) and specific differential phase (K _DP), low correlation coefficient (ρ _hv) and high reflectivity Z _h values. Storms were tracked to allow the Lagrangian temporal derivation. The model is based on the estimation of the proportion of radar echo volume in the mixed phase that is likely to be associated with intense storm hydrometeors. Thirteen parameters are used in this probabilistic nowcasting model, which is able to predict the potential for future storm development. The model distinguishes two different categories of storms, intense and non-intense rain cell events by determining how many parameters reach the “intense” storm threshold.     

Experimental determination of coexisting iron–titanium oxides in the systems FeTiAlO, FeTiAlMgO, FeTiAlMnO, and FeTiAlMgMnO at 800 and 900°C, 1–4 kbar, and relatively high oxygen fugacity

A synthetic, low-melting rhyolite composition containing TiO₂ and iron oxide, with further separate additions of MgO, MnO, and MgO + MnO, was used in hydrothermal experiments to crystallize Ilm-Hem and Usp-Mt solid solutions at 800 and 900°C under redox conditions slightly below nickel–nickel oxide (NNO) to $\approx 3\,\log_{10} f_{{{\text{O}}_{2}}}A synthetic, low-melting rhyolite composition containing TiO₂ and iron oxide, with further separate additions of MgO, MnO, and MgO + MnO, was used in hydrothermal experiments to crystallize Ilm-Hem and Usp-Mt solid solutions at 800 and 900°C under redox conditions slightly below nickel–nickel oxide (NNO) to units above the NNO oxygen buffer. These experiments provide calibration of the FeTi-oxide thermometer + oxygen barometer at conditions of temperature and oxygen fugacity poorly covered by previous equilibrium experiments. Isotherms for our data in Roozeboom diagrams of projected %usp vs. %ilm show a change in slope at ≈ 60% ilm, consistent with the second-order transition from FeTi-ordered Ilm to FeTi-disordered Ilm-Hem. This feature of the system accounts for some, but not all, of the differences from earlier thermodynamic calibrations of the thermobarometer. In rhyolite containing 1.0 wt.% MgO, 0.8 wt.% MnO, or MgO + MnO, Usp-Mt crystallized with up to 14% of aluminate components, and Ilm-Hem crystallized with up to 13% geikielite component and 17% pyrophanite component. Relative to the FeTiAlO system, these components displace the ferrite components in Usp-Mt, and the hematite component in Ilm-Hem. As a result, projected contents of ulv?spinel and ilmenite are increased. These changes are attributed to increased non-ideality along joins from end-member hematite and magnetite to their respective Mg- and Mn-bearing titanate and aluminate end-members. The compositional shifts are most pronounced in Ilm-Hem in the range Ilm_50–80, a solvus region where the chemical potentials of the hematite and ilmenite components are nearly independent of composition. The solvus gap widens with addition of Mg and even further with Mn. The Bacon–Hirschmann correlation of Mg/Mn in Usp-Mt and coexisting Ilm-Hem is displaced toward increasing Mg/Mn in ilmenite with passage from ordered ilmenite to disordered hematite. Orthopyroxene and biotite crystallized in experiments with added MgO and MgO + MnO; their X _Fe varies with and T consistent with equilibria among ferrosilite, annite, and ferrite components, and the chemical potentials of SiO₂ and orthoclase in the liquid. Experimental equilibration rates increased in the order: Opx < Bt < Ilm-Hem < Usp-Mag.     

Fractionation of carbon and hydrogen isotopes by methane-oxidizing bacteria

Carbon isotopic analysis of methane has become a popular technique in the exploration for oil and gas because it can be used to differentiate between thermogenic and microbial gas and can sometimes be used for gas-source rock correlations. Methane-oxidizing bacteria, however, can significantly change the carbon isotopic composition of methane; the origin of gas that has been partially oxidized by these bacteria could therefore be misinterpreted.We cultured methane-oxidizing bacteria at two different temperatures and monitored the carbon and hydrogen isotopic compositions of the residual methane. The residual methane was enriched in both ¹³C and D. For both isotopic species, the enrichment at equivalent levels of conversion was greater at 26°C than at 11.5°C. The change in δD relative to the change in δ¹³C was independent of temperature within the range studied. One culture exhibited a change in the fractionation pattern for carbon (but not for hydrogen) midway through the experiment, suggesting that bacterial oxidation of methane may occur via more than one pathway.The change in the δD value for the residual methane was from 8 to 14 times greater than the change in the δ¹³C value, indicating that combined carbon and hydrogen isotopic analysis may be an effective way of identifying methane which has been subjected to partial oxidation by bacteria.     

Influence of frozen conditions on the oxygen diffusion coefficient in unsaturated porous materials

The efficiency of soil covers used as oxygen barriers to control the generation of acid drainage from sulfidic mine wastes can be evaluated in terms of the diffusive oxygen flux reaching the underlying wastes. Oxygen diffusion has been extensively investigated over the last few decades for unsaturated porous materials that are not frozen. However, little attention has been paid to materials that are fully or partially frozen, and thus, the diffusion of oxygen through soil covers during the winter freezing period has been generally neglected. This paper presents a laboratory method developed to evaluate the effective diffusion coefficient of oxygen (D_e) in frozen, inert materials. The method is a modified version of the conventional double-chamber cell in which the temperature and unfrozen volumetric water content of the sample are measured in addition to the more commonly monitored change in oxygen concentration. Several tests were conducted on non-reactive materials: that is, a sand at multiple degrees of saturation (S_r?=?20, 30, 39, and 42%), a silt (S_r?=?47%), and a mixture of the two (S_r?=?90%). Experimental data were interpreted using the POLLUTE code. Values of D_e for frozen materials were slightly lower than those obtained at ambient laboratory temperatures. In addition to the development of an empirical method for determining D_e, a preliminary model based on the model proposed by Aachib et al. (Water Air Soil Pollut 156:163–193, 2004) was created for the prediction of D_e in frozen materials by defining the involved parameters as temperature-dependent. The results indicate that predicated values of D_e are slightly higher than experimental values, suggesting that there remains room for improvement in the model.