Quantitative estimates of temperature and precipitation changes over the last millennium from pollen and lake-level data at Lake Joux, Swiss Jura Mountains

This paper presents quantitative climate estimates for the last millennium, using a multi-proxy approach with pollen and lake-level data from Lake Joux (Swiss Jura Mountains). The climate reconstruction, based on the Modern Analogue Technique, indicates warmer and drier conditions during the Medieval Warm Period (MWP). MWP was preceded by a short-lived cold humid event around AD 1060, and followed by a rapid return around AD 1400 to cooler and wetter conditions which generally characterize the Little Ice Age (LIA). Around AD 1450 (solar Spörer minimum), the LIA attained a temperature minimum and a summer precipitation maximum. The solar Maunder minimum around AD 1690 corresponded at Joux to rather mild temperatures but maximal annual precipitation. These results generally agree with other records from neighbouring Alpine regions. However, there are differences in the timing of the LIA temperature minimum depending on the proxy and/or the method used for the reconstruction. As a working hypothesis, the hydrological signal associated with the MWP and LIA oscillations at Lake Joux may have been mainly driven by a shift around AD 1400 from positive to negative NAO modes in response to variations in solar irradiance possibly coupled with changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation.     

Polytype and polymorph identification of finely divided aluminous dioctahedral mica individual crystals with SAED. Kinematical and dynamical electron diffraction

This work investigates the potential of selected-area electron diffraction (SAED) for the polytype and polymorph identification of finely divided K-bearing aluminous dioctahedral mica. Individual mica crystals may indeed differ by their layer-stacking sequence and by the inner structure of their octahedral sheets (polytypic and polymorphic variants, respectively). This diversity of natural mica is commonly considered to be responsible for their morphological variety. The present article thus analyzes the intensity distribution between hk0 beams as a function of the crystal structure and thickness. The comparison of ED calculations with experimental diffraction data shows that predicted dynamical effects are not observed for finely divided dioctahedral mica. The influence of different structure defects on calculated intensities is analyzed, and their widespread occurrence in natural mica is hypothesized to be responsible for the limitation of dynamical diffraction effects. SAED may thus be used to identify the structure of individual dioctahedral mica crystals using the kinematical approximation to simulate and qualitatively interpret the observed intensities.     

Orbital timing of the Indian,East Asian and African boreal monsoons and the concept of a ‘global monsoon’

Our understanding of monsoon circulation timing’s at the orbital scale is currently a matter of debate. Here, we compare previous and recently published results of Indian, East Asian, West African and East African monsoon variability. We note different timings between the East African, West African, Indian and East-Asian monsoon systems for the most recent 45 ka, where the age models are constrained by AMS dating. On this basis, we construct different orbital forcing “reference curves” and apply them to the 200 ka time period for the different monsoon systems. Our results indicate that the ‘global monsoon’ concept at the orbital scale is a misnomer. We find real regional differences in the timing of the monsoon response to orbital forcing and differences in the weight of precession and obliquity in the monsoon records. This work highlights the necessity of studies aimed at understanding the underlying physics of these regional response patterns. This is crucial to a better understanding of monsoon dynamics and improved climate model simulations and comparisons with proxy data.     

Influence of sample location and livestock numbers on Sporormiella concentrations and accumulation rates in surface sediments of Lake Allos, French Alps

Spores of coprophilous fungi, especially Sporormiella, are often well preserved in lake sediment cores. It has been hypothesized that such spores can be used to quantify past livestock abundance. The quantitative relationship between fungal spore abundance and livestock populations, however, is not well established, nor are the mechanisms of spore transport and deposition in lacustrine systems. Multiple cores from Lake Allos, a large high-elevation lake in the French Alps, were used to map the modern abundance of Sordaria and Sporormiella spores throughout the lake. We observed high spatial heterogeneity with respect to spore numbers. No correlation with the distance from shoreline was found. There was, however, a relation with distance from the two main lake inlets. These results were used to select two fungi-rich sediment cores to investigate grazing pressure over the last two centuries. Comparisons were made between spore influx and historic data on livestock densities in the catchment. A sharp decrease in Sporormiella influx ca. 1894–1895 was associated with a reported reduction in sheep in the Allos catchment at that time. Mean influx of Sporormiella decreased by a factor of three between the nineteenth and twentieth centuries, reflecting a reduction in the reported number of animals in the Lake Allos catchment, from 6,000 to 2,000. This study confirmed that Sporormiella spore abundance in lake sediments can be used as a proxy for catchment herbivore numbers in paleoecological reconstructions. Nevertheless, our data indicate that before spore accumulation can be used to infer past domestic herbivore density, one must understand the processes of coprophilous spore transfer from the catchment to the lake and the influence of core location on spore numbers in the sediment.     

Optical constants of Titan’s stratospheric aerosols in the 70–1500 cm−1 spectral range constrained by Cassini/CIRS observations

We utilized aerosol extinction coefficient inferred from Cassini/CIRS spectra in the far and mid infrared region to derive the extinction cross-section near an altitude of 190 km at 15°S (from far-IR) and 20°S (from mid-IR). By comparing the extinction cross section that are derived from observations with theoretical calculations for a fractal aggregate of 3000 monomers, each having a radius of 0.05 μm, and a fractal dimension of 2, we are able to constrain the refractive index of Titan’s aerosol between 70 and 1500 cm^?1 (143 and 6.7 μm). As the real and imaginary parts of the refractive index are related by the Kramers–Kronig equation, we apply an iterative process to determine the optical constants in the thermal infrared. The resulting spectral dependence of the imaginary index displays several spectral signatures, some of which are also seen for some Titan’s aerosol analogues (tholins) produced in laboratory experiments. We find that Titan’s aerosols are less absorbent than tholins in the thermal infrared. The most prominent emission bands observed in the mid-infrared are due to CH bending vibrations in methyl and methylene groups. It appears that Titan’s aerosols predominantly display vibrations implying carbon and hydrogen atoms and perhaps marginally nitrogen. In the mid infrared, all the aerosol spectral signatures are observed at three additional latitudes (56°S, 5°N and 30°N) and in the 193–274 km altitude range, which implies that Titan’s aerosols exhibit the same chemical composition in all investigated latitude and altitude regions.     

Transition zone structure under a stationary hot spot: Cape Verde

We report on a two-year seismic deployment in the Cape Verde Islands, one goal of which was to study the upper mantle to determine its structure under a hot spot that is stationary in the hot spot reference frame. We find from analysis of P-to-S receiver functions estimated from broadband seismic recordings that, within uncertainty, the time separation between the 410 and 660 km discontinuities is normal compared to radial earth models. Thus, to exist, even stationary hot spots do not require vertical thermal anomalies from deep melting sources anchored in the lower mantle or at the core–mantle boundary or their anomalies are narrower than ～ 250 km in the upper mantle.     

Coupling mechanisms in double sandbar systems. Part 1: patterns and physical explanation

Crescentic sandbars and rip channels along wave‐dominated sandy beaches are relevant to understand localized beach and dune erosion during storms. In recent years, a paradigm shift from hydrodynamic template models to self‐organization mechanisms occurred to explain the formation of these rhythmic features. In double sandbar systems, both the inner‐ and outer‐bar rip channels and crescentic planshapes are now believed to be free instabilities of the nearshore system arising through self‐organization mechanisms alone. However, the occasional occurrence of one or two inner‐bar rip channels within one outer‐bar crescent suggests a forced, morphologically coupled origin. Here we use a nonlinear morphodynamic model to show that alongshore variability in outer‐bar depth, and the relative importance of wave breaking versus wave focussing by refraction across the outer bar, is crucial to the inner‐bar rip channel development. The coupling patterns simulated by our model are similar to those observed in the field. Morphological coupling requires a template in the morphology (outer‐bar geometry) which, through the positive feedback between flow, sediment transport and the evolving morphology (that is, self‐organization) enforces the development of coupling patterns. We therefore introduce a novel mechanism that blurs the distinction between self‐organization and template mechanisms. This mechanism may also be extended to explain the dynamics of other nearshore patterns, such as beach cusps. The impact of this novel mechanism on the alongshore variability of inner‐bar rip channels is investigated in the companion paper. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley and Sons, Ltd.     

Error propagation in time-dependent probability of occurrence for characteristic earthquakes in Italy

Time-dependent models for seismic hazard and earthquake probabilities are at the leading edge of research nowadays. In the framework of a 2-year national Italian project (2005–2007), we have applied the Brownian passage time (BPT) renewal model to the recently released Database of Individual Seismogenic Sources (DISS) to compute earthquake probability in the period 2007–2036. Observed interevent times on faults in Italy are absolutely insufficient to characterize the recurrence time. We, therefore, derived mean recurrence intervals indirectly. To estimate the uncertainty of the results, we resorted to the theory of error propagation with respect to the main parameters: magnitude and slip rate. The main issue concerned the high variability of slip rate, which could hardly be reduced by exploiting geodetic constraints. We did some validation tests, and interesting considerations were derived from seismic moment budgeting on the historical earthquake catalog. In a time-dependent perspective, i.e., when the date of the last event is known, only 10–15% of the 115 sources exhibit a probability of a characteristic earthquake in the next 30 years higher than the equivalent Poissonian probabilities. If we accept the Japanese conventional choice of probability threshold greater than 3% in 30 years to define “highly probable sources,” mainly intermediate earthquake faults with characteristic M < 6, having an elapsed time of 0.7–1.2 times the recurrence interval are the most “prone” sources. The number of highly probable sources rises by increasing the aperiodicity coefficient (from 14 sources in the case of variable α ranging between 0.22 and 0.36 to 31 sources out of 115 in the case of an α value fixed at 0.7). On the other hand, in stationary time-independent approaches, more than two thirds of all sources are considered probabilistically prone to an impending earthquake. The performed tests show the influence of the variability of the aperiodicity factor in the BPT renewal model on the absolute probability values. However, the influence on the relative ranking of sources is small. Future developments should give priority to a more accurate determination of the date of the last seismic event for a few seismogenic sources of the DISS catalog and to a careful check on the applicability of a purely characteristic model.