Flood risk curves and uncertainty bounds

The Scotia Arc is one of two regions in the Atlantic Ocean with greater potential for tsunami generation from seismic and volcanic sources. A numerical modeling study was undertaken to determine tsunami generation from postulated sources along the Arc and tsunami wave amplification or attenuation along the Patagonian continental shelf. Sea level oscillation represented by a simple sinusoidal wave function applied at the boundary of the numerical grid, which simulated the tsunami entering the computational domain, was implemented as forcing. The validation of this model was carried out by comparing the maximum amplitudes recorded and simulated at Santa Teresita and Mar del Plata (Buenos Aires province) after the occurrence of earthquake and subsequent tsunami in Sumatra (December 2004). From numerical simulations it can be seen that the tsunami propagation is highly affected by bathymetric refraction on the Patagonian continental shelf and the wave amplitude is significantly attenuated on the inner continental shelf. Maximum amplifications were obtained around Malvinas (Falkland) Islands and Burdwood bank because the wave propagates almost without refracting and the shoaling effect is highly significant there.     

Predictions and observations of events and configurations occurring during the Uranian equinox

The occurrence of the Earth and Sun transits through the equatorial plane of Uranus will bring us the opportunity for observations only possible at that time: mutual events of the satellites, search for new faint satellites and measurement of the thickness of the rings.The predictions of the mutual events need a theoretical model of the motion of the satellites. The calculated occurrences of the occultations and eclipses highly depend on the model since these predictions are very sensitive to the relative positions of the satellites. A difference of 0.05 arcsec in latitude may make an event inexistent and the accuracy of the theoretical models is around 0.1 arcsec.In order to be sure of the occurrence of each event, we made the predictions using three theoretical models: the first one is GUST86 made by Laskar and Jacobson in 1986, the second is GUST06 based on the former model fitted by Emelianov on new observations and the third one is LA06 based on a brand new theory with an accuracy 10 times better than GUST and fitted on recent observations made since 1950.This comparison shows that some events predicted with one model are not predicted using another one. We try to select the events which will occur surely in order to help the observers to catch the best phenomena.The search for new satellites and the measurement of the thickness of the rings are planned by means of observations at the time of the transit of the Earth in the ring plane.     

Geophysical investigations of the plumbing system of Stromboli volcano (Aeolian Islands,Italy)

In this work, we report the results of an integrated approach using both seismological and geodetic data provided by the INGV-CT (Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Catania) Stromboli volcano monitoring systems, in order to improve the knowledge of its plumbing system. In particular, we investigated the relationships between the June 1999 seismic swarm, occurring in the area of Stromboli, and the possible activation of the NE–SW oriented volcano-tectonic structure. We analyzed this seismic swarm proposing new locations and a morphological analysis of the waveforms. This approach allowed us to demonstrate that there are relationships between the tectonic activity near Stromboli and the rising of magma. This evidence supports the hypothesis that during the 1999 swarm an intrusive process started from a crustal level where earthquakes were located (about 10–15 km b.s.l.).     

(137)Cs baseline levels in the Mediterranean and Black Sea: a cross-basin survey of the CIESM Mediterranean Mussel Watch programme

The common mussel Mytilus galloprovincialis was selected as unique biomonitor species to implement a regional monitoring programme, the CIESM Mediterranean Mussel Watch (MMW), in the Mediterranean and Black Seas. As of today, and upon standardization of the methodological approach, the MMW Network has been able to quantify (137)Cs levels in mussels from 60 coastal stations and to produce the first distribution map of this artificial radionuclide at the scale of the entire Mediterranean and Black Seas. While measured (137)Cs levels were found to be very low (usually < 1 Bq kg(-1) wet wt) (137)Cs activity concentrations in the Black Sea and North Aegean Sea were up to two orders of magnitude higher than those in the western Mediterranean Basin. Such effects, far from representing a threat to human populations or the environment, reflect a persistent signature of the Chernobyl fallout in this area.     

In situ oxygen uptake rates by coastal sediments under the influence of the Rhône River (NW Mediterranean Sea)

The influence of riverine inputs on biogeochemical cycling and organic matter recycling in sediments on the continental shelf off the Rhône River mouth (NW Mediterranean Sea) was investigated by measuring sediment oxygen uptake rates using a combination of in situ and laboratory techniques. Four stations were investigated during two cruises in June 2001 and June 2002, with depths ranging from 9 to 192 m and over a distance to the Rhône River mouth ranging from 4 to 36 km. Diffusive oxygen uptake (DOU) rates were determined using an in situ sediment microprofiler and total oxygen uptake (TOU) rates were measured using sediment core incubations. There was good agreement between these two techniques which indicates that the non-diffusive fraction of the oxygen flux was minimal at the investigated stations. DOU rates ranged from 3.7±0.4 mmol O₂ m⁻² d⁻¹ at the continental shelf break to 19.3±0.5 mmol O₂ m⁻² d⁻¹ in front of the Rhône River mouth. Sediment oxygen uptake rates mostly decreased with increasing depth and with distance from the Rhône mouth. The highest oxygen uptake rate was observed at 63 m on the Rhône prodelta, corresponding to intense remineralization of organic matter. This oxygen uptake rate was much larger than expected for the increasing bathymetry, which indicates that biogeochemical cycles and benthic deposition are largely influenced by the Rhône River inputs. This functioning was also supported by the detailed spatial distribution of total organic carbon (TOC), total nitrogen (TN) and C/N atomic ratio in surficial sediments. Sediments of the Rhône prodelta are enriched in organic carbon (2–2.2%) relative to the continental shelf sediments (<1%) and showed C/N ratios exceeding Redfield stoichiometry for fresh marine organic matter. A positive exponential correlation was found between DOU and TOC contents (r²=0.98, n=4). South-westward of the Rhône River mouth, sediments contained highly degraded organic matter of both terrestrial and marine origin, due to direct inputs from the Rhône River, sedimentation of marine organic matter and organic material redeposition after resuspension events.     

The effects of the ‘Braer’ oil spill, Shetland Isles, Scotland, on P4501A in fanned Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) and the common dab (Limanda limanda)

This paper describes the response of two fish species, the Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) and the common dab (Limanda limanda) to the oil spilled from the Braer tanker which grounded on the southern tip of Shetland, Scotland, on 5 January 1993. Both the immediate sublethal effects and the long-term response to the oil which accumulated in sediments around the Shetland Isles, Scotland, are examined. The primary response measured was the induction of detoxification enzymes and the relationship of the levels or activities of these enzymes to the concentration and distribution of aromatic hydrocarbons measured in sediments, water and fish. The results show that, immediately following the spill, there was a marked induction of Cytochrome P4501A enzymes in salmon, indicative of exposure to bioavailable aromatics. In dab there was evidence of induction at some sites in January 1993 immediately following the spill but, subsequently, no induction has been observed in fish caught in the vicinity of Shetland despite the very high concentrations of oil measured in sediments at some locations. This would indicate that the polyaromatic hydrocarbons in these sediments are unlikely to be directly bioavailable to fish. The effect of the oil spill on hepatic pathology in dab was investigated and shows that pathology predictive of neoplasia, such as basophilic foci and vacuolation, were observed in fish from the most contaminated sites in 1994 but not in 1993. The incidence of this pathology appeared to correlate with the degree of contamination at the sites, but additional studies are required to establish whether this was a consequence of the initial impact and exposure from waterborne oil at the time of the spill or whether it was due to the continued exposure to oil from the sediments.     

Étude de quelques palynomorphes du crétace supérieur du bassin offshore de Côte d'Ivoire: implications biostratigraphiques et paléoenvironnementales

The palynological analysis of the core samples from the interval 1722–1777 m of well IVCO-25, located in the Abidjan margin, has revealed a rich microflora composed of Pteridophyta and Chlorophyta spores combined with Palmaceae and Proteaceae pollen grains. This palynoflora suggests a vegetation developed under a hot and humid tropical climate, suggestive of estuarine conditions. The microplankton, composed of various species of dinocysts, were indicative of a Campanian age for the studied interval.     

Isochores and 3-D visualization of rising and falling slat diapirs

Diapir fall, which was predicted by physical models, has been identified in salt provinces, such as the South Atlantic margins, the North Sea, and the Paradox Basin (Colorado–Utah). However the 3-D geometry of falling diapirs and their country rock is still poorly understood. 3-D visualization and isochore patterns from a physical model help elucidate this geometry.The model initially comprised a unit of viscous silicone overlain by a prekinematic sand unit. Sand units representing brittle sediments were deposited episodically during gravity gliding and spreading. Regional extension triggered and eventually widened salt walls, causing them to sag. The 3-D visualization shows that regional hydrocarbon migration, which tends to be seaward during diapir rise and landward during diapir fall, can potentially be orthogonal to local migration along grabens at soft-linked zones of relay ramps. Furthermore, anticlinal culminations may form (1) in horsts that bend along strike and (2) adjoining the fork of Y-shaped salt walls.Sequential isochore maps of the overburden show how patterns of sedimentation, deformation, and underlying salt thickness changed through time. Isochores of prekinematic units record only strain: thinned belts record early extension. In contrast, isochores of synkinematic units record mostly thickness variations due to deposition on actively deforming topography. Isochores above sagging diapirs identify the thickest part of crestal depocenters, where the most rapid sagging occurred in regions of maximum extension near the unbuttressed downdip part of the gravity-spreading system. Additionally, asymmetric isochore patterns may reveal underlying half-grabens or tilted symmetric grabens. In relay systems, overlying isochores may indicate which part of a salt wall rose to compensate for sagging elsewhere in the relay.     

Present and future climates of the Greenland ice sheet according to the IPCC AR4 models

The atmosphere?Cocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) used for the IPCC 4th Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) are evaluated for the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) current climate modelling. The most suited AOGCMs for Greenland climate simulation are then selected on the basis of comparison between the 1970?C1999 outputs of the Climate of the twentieth Century experiment (20C3M) and reanalyses (ECMWF, NCEP/NCAR). This comparison indicates that the representation quality of surface parameters such as temperature and precipitation are highly correlated to the atmospheric circulation (500?hPa geopotential height) and its interannual variability (North Atlantic oscillation). The outputs of the three most suitable AOGCMs for present-day climate simulation are then used to assess the changes estimated by three IPCC greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (SRES) over the GrIS for the 2070?C2099 period. Future atmospheric circulation changes are projected to dampen the zonal flow, enhance the meridional fluxes and therefore provide additional heat and moisture to the GrIS, increasing temperature over the whole ice sheet and precipitation over its northeastern area. We also show that the GrIS surface mass balance anomalies from the SRES A1B scenario amount to ?300?km³/year with respect to the 1970?C1999 period, leading to a global sea-level rise of 5?cm by the end of the 21st century. This work can help to select the boundaries conditions for AOGCMs-based downscaled future projections.     

Boundary-layer turbulent transport and production/destruction of ozone during summertime smog episodes over the Swiss Plateau

Turbulent fluxes of sensible and latent heat and ozone were measured aboard a German Aerospace Research Establishment motorglider over the Swiss Plateau during the first field experiment of the Swiss air pollution experiment POLLUMET. In the lower part of the boundary layer, the ozone fluxes are negative (downward) throughout the day as a result of deposition and photochemical destruction at the surface. In the upper part of the boundary layer, the ozone fluxes tend to be negative until mid-afternoon and then become positive. The change in sign occurs after the ozone concentration in the boundary layer exceeds that in the reservoir above the inversion. Downdrafts bringing air parcels with ozone deficits across the inversion then become major contributors to the flux. The positive fluxes at upper levels result in an increase in flux divergence in mid-afternoon that is balanced by a relatively large source term in the ozone concentration budget.