Risk assessment of maize drought disaster in southwest China using the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate model

The East Asian monsoon has a tremendous impact on agricultural production in China. An assessment of the risk of drought disaster in maize-producing regions is therefore important in ensuring a reduction in such disasters and an increase in food security. A risk assessment model, EPIC(Environmental Policy Integrated Climate) model, for maize drought disasters based on the Erosion Productivity Impact Calculator crop model is proposed for areas with the topographic characteristics of the mountainous karst region in southwest China. This region has one of the highest levels of environmental degradation in China. The results showed that the hazard risk level for the maize zone of southwest China is generally high. Most hazard index values were between 0.4 and 0.5,accounting for 47.32% of total study area. However,the risk level for drought loss was low. Most of the loss rate was 0.1, accounting for 96.24% of the total study area. The three high-risk areas were mainlydistributed in the parallel ridge–valley areas in the east of Sichuan Province, the West Mountain area of Guizhou Province, and the south of Yunnan Province.These results provide a scientific basis and support for the reduction of agricultural drought disasters and an increase in food security in the southwest China maize zone.     

Mechanical behavior and micro-structure of cement kiln dust-stabilized expensive soil

In this study, the effects of cement kiln dust (CKD) on the swelling properties, strength properties, and microstructures of CKD-stabilized expansive soil were investigated. Samples were prepared and stabilized with different CKD content ratios, ranging from 0 to 18% by dry mass. The results obtained show that the maximum swelling pressures decrease exponentially with increases in CKD content. Both the cohesion and unconfined compressive strength (UCS) increase at ratios below 10% CKD and then decrease slightly, above that ratio. CKD can also improve the strength of saturated, expansive soil. There is no visible change of UCS for soil without CKD when cured, while the UCS of a sample with 10% CKD content after curing for 90 days is higher than that after curing for only 1 day. This indicates that CKD can improve the long-term strength of expansive soil. Finally, microstructure analysis reveals that the addition of CKD reduces the montmorillonite content of expansive soil and decreases its swelling properties. The addition of CKD also changes the pore volume distribution, both the size and amount of macro-pores and micro-pores decrease with increase in CKD content. For saturated samples, the size of macro-pores is obviously reduced, while that of micro-pores is slightly increased for both treated and untreated soils. Hydration and saturation processes make the soil structure become dispersive which results in a lower strength, and adding CKD can restrain this process. The suggested optimal CKD content is between 10 and 14% and with a curing time of more than 27 days.     

积雪变化对中国森林凋落物分解影响研究进展

森林凋落物的分解对于维持生态系统物质循环和养分平衡具有重要意义,并受到不同积雪厚度下冻融格局的影响。冻融期（包括冻结过程期、完全冻结期、融化过程期）是冻土区凋落物分解的重要时期,该时期分解的凋落物量约占全年分解总量的一半。积雪减少通常会导致土壤温度降低、冻融循环次数增加,进而影响凋落物分解。通过综述近10年来积雪变化对我国森林凋落物分解影响的研究成果发现,积雪厚度减少在冻融期通常会抑制凋落物质量损失、碳元素释放和纤维素降解,生长季则起到促进作用,从全年来看多数表现为抑制作用。因此,冻融作用造成凋落物的物理破坏,对其分解的促进作用主要发生在后续生长季。积雪厚度减少在冻融期通常抑制氮元素释放,生长季和全年则无明显规律;磷元素和木质素目前研究还存在很大差异。最后,进一步阐述了积雪变化对凋落物分解影响研究存在的问题及未来研究发展方向。     

宿迁地震台地震监测能力分析

根据宿迁地震台地震计和数采参数、台站背景噪声等数据,结合历史地震观测数据,运用统计学计算方法,计算宿迁地震台地震监测能力。结果认为:宿迁地震台短周期台基背景噪声较大,微小地震监测能力较弱,但基本可以监测到M_L 2.0地方震,也可监测到150 km范围内周边城市M_L 2.5地震。     

社会主义市场经济条件下的土地储备及其模式选择

社会主义市场经济建设的逐步完善，要求我们必须改变传统的土地管理思路，土地储备作为政府经营城市的一种重要手段，能够使政府在土地管理的实践中实现资源与资产并重的目标。在阐述土地储备的涵义、起源及其在我国的产生与发展的基础上，分析了土地储备的运行机制与最终目标，归纳了我国土地储备的基本做法，首次提出了城市土地储备的直接储备模式和间接土地储备模式概念，并提出了地方政府构建城市土地储备模式的基本原则和具体操作思路。     

GIS与土壤溶质运移模型结合研究进展

地理信息系统对土壤溶质模型研究而言，使用者的要求与GIS所能提供的功能之间，还存在巨大的差距。出于对环境问题的关注，土壤中水分及溶质运移的规律及其对环境的影响，成为当前研究的热点。随着对土壤溶质运移模型研究的深入，一方面由于田间土壤特性具有很大的空间变异；另一方面，在实际应用中，往往溶质运移的宏观特征而非微观特征，具有更重要的意义。将溶质运移模型与GIS技术结合，定量研究空间尺度的溶质运移，成为溶质运移研究的必然发展趋势。由于计算机软硬件技术的发展，GIS正处于一个高速发展的时期。将GIS与溶质运移模型相结合，或者进一步，以GIS理论和技术为基础，建立基于GIS的溶质运移模型，将对溶质运移的规律及其对环境的影响，做出更深入和准确的描述。     

局部最优形态参数的RBF分块地形插值方法与实验

径向基函数（Radial Basis Function,RBF）是一种不需对数据做任何假设,能准确逼近任意维度数据的空间插值方法。其特别适合于复杂地形的数字高程模型（Digital Elevation Model,DEM）插值重建,但随着已知点数量的增加会导致插值模型求解困难或缓慢。针对这个问题,本文基于二叉树自适应递归分块原理,采用局部最优形态参数的RBF分块插值方法进行DEM插值重建。首先,设定子区域最小点数阈值和相邻子区域的重叠率,自顶向下,对研究区域进行递归分块,构建区域分块二叉树,对二叉树叶子节点区域,采用逐点交叉验证（Leave One Out Cross Validation,LOOCV）方法求解其最优形态参数,建立局部RBF最优插值模型;然后,根据单元分解原理,采用加权平均方法对相应叶子节点区域内的待插值点高程进行加权求和,自底向上递归求解,得到待插值点最终高程值。以云南某地区DEM进行插值实验表明,采用本文方法进行DEM插值重建,稳定性较好,插值精度高。     

天文卫星下传数据处理系统的规划

天文卫星获取的数据需要经过卫星下传数据处理系统的一系列加工,生成可以分析的数据产品,这些产品及相应软件要发布给国内外用户,同时数据处理系统还要监测载荷状态、数据质量及天体源爆发等。这样,下传数据处理系统的建设直接关系到物理成果的获取,规划该系统就变得非常有意义。从数据产品定义、子系统规划、数据流程等方面介绍卫星下传数据处理系统的规划,并提出以模块化开发方式从整体上协调各个子系统的开发,使各个系统及其软件相互配合,共同促进科学产出。     

重庆不同天气系统短历时设计暴雨雨型比较研究

利用重庆主城区沙坪坝国家基本气象站1961—2017年逐分钟降雨资料,根据暴雨成因选取大范围区域暴雨型和局地强对流天气型两类短历时暴雨样本,采用PilgrimCordery法推求设计暴雨雨型,并比较两类天气系统下短历时设计暴雨雨型的差异。结果显示:区域暴雨型样本数占总样本数52.6%,60 min历时单峰型和均匀型占比分别为36.7%和26.7%,120 min历时多为单峰型且峰值在中部,180 min历时雨型主要为峰值在前部的单峰型。而强对流天气型样本数占总样本数的47.4%,短历时雨型基本都为峰值在前部的单峰型。相比区域暴雨型,强对流天气型设计暴雨雨型峰值位置出现较早,峰值强度偏强,降雨累积过程更快。60 min、120 min和180 min峰值分别提前5 min、35 min和20 min,10 a重现期峰值强度分别偏强0.5 mm·min~(-1)、0.9 mm·min~(-1)和0.9 mm·min~(-1)。在设计降雨量相同的情况下,强对流天气型平均积水时间更长,积水量更大,导致的内涝问题更突出。