The NdSr isotopic correlation in mantle materials and geodynamic consequences

The neodymium-strontium isotopic correlation observed in most of the Earth mantle materials is evaluated by means of direct modelling. Several geochemical models are quantitatively developed to explain the observations. The main results of this modelling are that such a correlation is not geochemically trivial and that it corresponds to specific conditions in chemical fractionation. These specific conditions seem to be satisfied by solid-liquid partitioning in magmatic conditions. The discussion of the experimental data supports a continuous convecting-magmatic fractionation model for a large proportion of the mantle.     

Solar shield: forecasting and mitigating space weather effects on high-voltage power transmission systems

In this paper, central elements of the Solar Shield project, launched to design and establish an experimental system capable of forecasting the space weather effects on high-voltage power transmission system, are described. It will be shown how Sun–Earth system data and models hosted at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) are used to generate two-level magnetohydrodynamics-based forecasts providing 1–2 day and 30–60 min lead-times. The Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) represents the end-user, the power transmission industry, in the project. EPRI integrates the forecast products to an online display tool providing information about space weather conditions to the member power utilities. EPRI also evaluates the economic impacts of severe storms on power transmission systems. The economic analysis will quantify the economic value of the generated forecasting system. The first version of the two-level forecasting system is currently running in real-time at CCMC. An initial analysis of the system’s capabilities has been completed, and further analysis is being carried out to optimize the performance of the system. Although the initial results are encouraging, definite conclusions about system’s performance can be given only after more extensive analysis, and implementation of an automatic evaluation process using forecasted and observed geomagnetically induced currents from different nodes of the North American power transmission system. The final output of the Solar Shield will be a recommendation for an optimal forecasting system that may be transitioned into space weather operations.     

Dry spell characteristics over India based on IMD and APHRODITE datasets

Selected characteristics of dry spells and associated trends over India during the 1951–2007 period is studied using two gridded datasets: the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) and the Asian Precipitation-Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation of the water resources (APHRODITE) datasets. Two precipitation thresholds, 1 and 3 mm, are used to define a dry day (and therefore dry spells) in this study. Comparison of the spatial patterns of the dry spell characteristics (mean number of dry days, mean number of dry spells, mean and maximum duration of dry spells) for the annual and summer monsoon period obtained with both datasets agree overall, except for the northernmost part of India. The number of dry days obtained with APHRODITE is larger for this region compared to IMD, which is consistent with the smaller precipitation for the region in APHRODITE. These differences are also visible in the spatial patterns of mean and maximum dry spell durations. Analysis of field significance associated with trends, at the level of 34 predefined meteorological subdivisions over the mainland, suggests better agreement between the two datasets in positive trends associated with number of dry days for the annual and summer monsoon period, for both thresholds. Important differences between the two datasets are noted in the field significance associated with the negative trends. While negative trends in annual maximum duration of dry spells appear field significant for the desert regions according to both datasets, they are found field significant for two regions (Punjab and South Interior Karnataka) for the monsoon period for both datasets. This study, in addition to providing information on the spatial and temporal patterns associated with dry spell characteristics, also allows identification of regions and characteristics where the two datasets agree/disagree.     

Exploring the dynamics of the disaggregated intercity corporate network in the Yangtze River Delta,China: a relational event approach

Journal of Geographical Systems - There has been a proliferation of studies trying to explain the driving forces behind the formation and evolution of intercity corporate networks. Previous...     

Late Miocene sedimentary architecture of the Ebro Continental Margin (Western Mediterranean): implications to the Messinian Salinity Crisis

The Messinian Salinity Crisis (MSC) resulted from a significant multi-phase drop and subsequent reflooding of the Mediterranean Sea from 5.96 to 5.33 Ma. Well-developed drainage networks, characterized by step-like profiles and abrasion platforms, are associated to this event. The Ebro Continental Margin (Western Mediterranean) presents an additional complexity since the capture of the drainage of the adjacent subaerial Ebro Basin took place sometime prior to the Messinian stage. Using 3D seismic reflection data, this work provides new insights into the origin of the step-like profile of the Messinian erosional surface (MES) and timing of the capture of the subaerial Ebro Basin. The results obtained indicate a sedimentary-active continental slope and delta progradation during Middle-Late Miocene, in a normal regressive context associated to a pre-Messinian proto-Ebro River. The mature development attained by the Messinian Ebro River network during the MSC corroborates that the capture of the Ebro Basin occurred prior to the MSC. The configuration of the clinoforms below the MES suggests that deltaic sediments of the Messinian Paleo-Ebro River deposited during the Tortonian and initial Messinian sea-level drawdown. The MES formed at the top of the Tortonian Highstand, where a fluvial network was deeply carved, and in the topset region of the Messinian Falling Stage Systems Tract, where minor erosion occurred. Fluvial deposits are outstandingly preserved on the main valleys of the MES. Therefore, the step-like profile of the MES was not created during Zanclean inundation, but during the latest stages of the main Messinian sea-level fall and lowstand.     

Multiple exposures and dynamic vulnerability: Evidence from the grape industry in the Okanagan Valley, Canada

This paper assesses the vulnerability of grape growers and winery operators in the Okanagan Valley, British Columbia to climate variability and change, in the context of other sources of risk. Through interviews and focus groups, producers identified the climatic and non-climatic risks relevant to them and the strategies employed to manage these risks. The results show that the presence of multiple exposures affects the way in which producers are vulnerable to climate change. Producers are vulnerable to conditions that not only affect crop yield, but also affect their ability to compete in or sell to the market. Their sensitivity to these conditions is influenced in part by institutional factors such as trade liberalization and a “markup-free delivery” policy. Producers’ ability to adapt or cope with these risks varies depending on such factors as the availability of resources and technology, and access to government programmes. Producers will likely face challenges associated with the supply of water for irrigation due to a combination of climatic changes and changing demographics in the Okanagan Valley, which in turn affect their ability to adapt to climatic conditions. Finally, adaptations made by producers can change the nature of the operation and its vulnerability, demonstrating the dynamic nature of vulnerability.     

Surface properties of asteroids: A synthesis of polarimetry,radiometry, and spectrophotometry

The surface compositions of 110 asteroids are analyzed from statistically representative data sets of polarimetry as a function of phase angle, broad-band radiometry near 10 and 20 μm, and visible and near-infrared spectrophotometry. A comparison of albedos and diameters determined by polarimetry and radiometry shows that a modest upward revision of the radiometric albedo scale is needed and that a single law relating the slope of the polarization-phase curve to geometric albedo may not hold for very dark asteroids. We present reliable adopted albedos and diameters for 56 objects. Roughdi ameters for 52 additional objects are obtained from spectrophotometry using a correlation between albedo and color. Corrections for sampling bias permit investigation of asteroid compositions as a function of diameter, orbit, and other parameters.More than 90% of the minor planets fall into two broad compositional groups, defined by several optical parameters, designated by the symbols C and S. Comparisons with meteorite spectral albedo curves suggest that the two groups are compositionally similar to carbonaceous and stony-metallic meteorites, respectively. C-type asteroids predominate in the belt, especially in the outer half. An unusual distribution of compositions is found between 2.77 and 3.0 AU. Many S-type objects have diameters of 100–200 km; C-type objects are much more common at both larger and smaller sizes. Vesta is unique, being apparently the only differentiated asteroid remaining intact in the belt. The largest C-type objects are compositionally distinct from smaller ones and possibly are metamorphosed. We sketch some implications for meteoritics and for the early history of the solar system and point to the need for further systematic sampling of smaller and fainter objects by these three observational techniques.     

Mica beards in three slates: Morphology,formation and bearing on the strain history

Beards are intergrowths of mica, chlorite and quartz or feldspar on detrital grains in weakly metamorphosed sedimentary rocks. The three samples studied contain beards of mica and quartz (or feldspar). Their internal morphology shows a variation in mica orientation related to the external foliation (matrix). Formation occurred during foliation development with a syntaxial growth history. In three dimensions, the beards have oblate shapes, so that they are present in all planes cut parallel to the shortening direction. This indicates flattening strain conditions around the detrital grains during the beard formation.Bulk inhomogeneous shortening, resulting in an anastomosing foliation, can explain the local extension within the plane containing the fold axis and the shortening direction. Concurrently, an approximately constant lenght in the direction of the fold axis is maintained on a regional scale (plane strain). Volume loss probably plays an important role during the formation history.

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Zusammenfassung Glimmerbärte in schwach metamorphen Sedimenten sind syntektonische Verwachsungen von Glimmer, Chlorit, Quarz oder Feldspat auf detritischen Körnern. Die drei hier untersuchten Proben enthalten Bärte aus Hellglimmer und Quarz (oder Feldspat). Die Glimmerorientierung zeigt Variationen in Relation zum umgebenden Schieferungsgefüge (Matrix). Die Bildung der Bärte fand mit syntaxialem Wachstum während der Schieferung statt. Dreidimensional haben die Bärte eine abgeplattete Gestalt, so daß sie in allen Schnittlagen parallel zur Verkürzungsrichtung zu beobachten sind. Dies weist auf plättende Verformung um detritische Körner während der Bildung der Bärte hin.Bulk inhomogeneous shortening führt zu einem linsigen Schieferungsgefüge und kann bei gleichzeitiger Annahme einer nicht volumenkonstanten Deformation als Erklärung für die im Korngefüge beobachtete Dehnung parallel zur Faltenachse herangezogen werden. Im regionalen Maßstab wird aber eine konstante Länge in Richtung der Faltenachse und damit ebene Deformation angenommen.

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Résumé Les barbes de mica sont des intercroissances de quartz (ou feldspath) et de mica sur des grains détritiques dans les roches sédimentaires peu métamorphisées. Elles ont été étudiées dans trois échantillons. Leur morphologie interne montre une variation dans l'orientation du mica en relation avec la schistosité externe (matrice). Leur formation s'est produite pendant le développement de la schistosité, avec une histoire de croissance «syntaxiale». Les barbes ont une forme oblongue en trois dimensions, de sorte qu'elles sont visibles dans toutes les sections parallèles à la direction de raccourcissement. Cela indique, pendant la formation des barbes, l'existence d'un aplatissement autour des grains détritiques.Le raccourcissement non homogène, qui entraîne une foliation anastomosée peut être invoqué, conjointement à une déformation avec perte de volume, pour expliquer l'allongement que présente localement la microstructure parallèlement à l'axe des plis. A l'échelle régionale, toutefois, on admet la constance de la longuer selon la direction des axes et, partant, le caractère plan de la déformation.

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Scientific uncertainty and climate change: Part II. Uncertainty and mitigation

In public debate surrounding climate change, scientific uncertainty is often cited in connection with arguments against mitigative action. This article examines the role of uncertainty about future climate change in determining the likely success or failure of mitigative action. We show by Monte Carlo simulation that greater uncertainty translates into a greater likelihood that mitigation efforts will fail to limit global warming to a target (e.g., 2 °C). The effect of uncertainty can be reduced by limiting greenhouse gas emissions. Taken together with the fact that greater uncertainty also increases the potential damages arising from unabated emissions (Lewandowsky et al. 2014), any appeal to uncertainty implies a stronger, rather than weaker, need to cut greenhouse gas emissions than in the absence of uncertainty.