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121.
AbstractFloods, as extreme hydrological phenomena, can be described by more than one correlated characteristic, such as peak, volume and duration. These characteristics should be jointly considered since they are generally not independent. For an ungauged site, univariate regional flood frequency analysis (FA) provides a limited assessment of flood events. A recent study proposed a procedure for regional FA in a multivariate framework. This procedure represents a multivariate version of the index-flood model and is based on copulas and multivariate quantiles. The performance of the proposed procedure was evaluated by simulation. However, the model was not tested on a real-world case study data. In the present paper, practical aspects are investigated jointly for flood peak (Q) and volume (V) of a dataset from the Côte-Nord region in the province of Quebec, Canada. The application of the proposed procedure requires the identification of the appropriate marginal distribution, the estimation of the index flood and the selection of an appropriate copula. The results of the case study show that the regional bivariate FA procedure performed well. This performance depends strongly on the performance of the two univariate models and, more specifically, the univariate model of Q. The results show also the impact of the homogeneity of the region on the performance of the univariate and bivariate models.
Editor D. Koutsoyiannis 相似文献
122.
AbstractThe multi-layered Jeffara de Gabes aquifer system is greatly influenced by tectonics. This system is limited at the base and laterally by evaporite layers and has lateral contacts with the sebkhas (salt flats). The groundwater in this aquifer is characterized by high salinity (3–10 g L-1). Multivariate statistical analysis and a geochemical approach were applied to determine the influence of the evaporite layers and sebkhas on the hydrochemical quality of the Jeffara de Gabes aquifer, and to understand the processes governing its salinity. According to these methods, and based in part on the Sr2+/Ca2+ ratio, it is demonstrated that the strong salinity of the groundwater is due to interactions between water and the evaporite layers that act as a substratum of this aquifer, as well as saltwater intrusion from the sebkhas. Moreover, the medium- to poor-quality groundwaters are characterized by geochemical interactions: cationic exchange and the precipitation/dissolution process of minerals in the aquifer formations.Editeur Z.W. KundzewiczCitation Ben Alaya, M., Zemni, T., Mamou, A. et Zargouni, F., 2014. Acquisition de salinité et qualité des eaux d’une nappe profonde, Tunisie: approche statistique et géochimique. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (2), 395–419. 相似文献
123.
RésuméLa lutte contre le ravinement a longtemps été un point clé des stratégies de lutte contre l’érosion en milieu méditerranéen. Cependant l’évaluation de l’efficacité des stratégies et pratiques d’aménagements fait défaut. Dans ce contexte, l’objectif du présent travail est de proposer et tester une méthode d’évaluation de l’efficacité d’aménagements réalisés pour limiter le ravinement. La démarche adoptée s’appuie sur l’interprétation de photographies aériennes de différentes dates. Elle est développée sur le bassin versant tunisien d’El Hnach (3,7 km2), partiellement aménagé vers 1989 avec diverses pratiques anti-érosives (plantations d’arbres, construction de banquettes, de seuils et de cordons de pierre). La comparaison entre zones aménagées et zones non aménagées est réalisée après correction des effets pente, lithologie et climat grâce à une normalisation par rapport au comportement de secteurs « témoins » non aménagés. La cartographie de l’évolution des longueurs de ravines entre 1952 et 2004 a permis de mesurer les dynamiques de ravinement et de mettre en évidence la grande variabilité de l’efficacité des aménagements selon le contexte de pente et de géologie.Editeur Z.W. Kundzewicz; Editeur associé G. MahéCitation Rebai, H., Raclot, D., et Ben Ouezdou, H., 2013. Efficacité des aménagements de lutte contre le ravinement (cas du bassin versant d’El Hnach, Tunisie). Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (7), 1532–1541. 相似文献
124.
Assessing future risk: quantifying the effects of sea level rise on storm surge risk for the southern shores of Long Island, New York 总被引:2,自引:1,他引:1
Christine C. Shepard Vera N. Agostini Ben Gilmer Tashya Allen Jeff Stone William Brooks Michael W. Beck 《Natural Hazards》2012,60(2):727-745
Sea level rise threatens to increase the impacts of future storms and hurricanes on coastal communities. However, many coastal
hazard mitigation plans do not consider sea level rise when assessing storm surge risk. Here we apply a GIS-based approach
to quantify potential changes in storm surge risk due to sea level rise on Long Island, New York. We demonstrate a method
for combining hazard exposure and community vulnerability to spatially characterize risk for both present and future sea level
conditions using commonly available national data sets. Our results show that sea level rise will likely increase risk in
many coastal areas and will potentially create risk where it was not before. We find that even modest and probable sea level
rise (.5 m by 2080) vastly increases the numbers of people (47% increase) and property loss (73% increase) impacted by storm
surge. In addition, the resulting maps of hazard exposure and community vulnerability provide a clear and useful example of
the visual representation of the spatial distribution of the components of risk that can be helpful for developing targeted
hazard mitigation and climate change adaptation strategies. Our results suggest that coastal agencies tasked with managing
storm surge risk must consider the effects of sea level rise if they are to ensure safe and sustainable coastal communities
in the future. 相似文献
125.
José Bandeira Ben McGee Afonso C.R. Nogueira Alan S. Collins Ricardo Trindade 《Gondwana Research》2012,21(2-3):323-340
Final Gondwana amalgamation was marked by the closure of the Neoproterozoic Clymene ocean between the Amazonia craton and central Gondwana. The events which occurred in the last stage of this closure were recorded in the upper Alto Paraguai Group in the foreland of the Paraguay orogen. Outcrop-based facies analysis of the siliciclastic rocks of upper Alto Paraguai Group, composed of the Sepotuba and Diamantino Formations, was carried out in the Diamantino region, within the eastern part of the Barra dos Bugres basin, Mato Grosso state, central-western Brazil. The Sepotuba Formation is composed of sandy shales with planar to wave lamination interbedded with fine-grained sandstone with climbing ripple cross-lamination, planar lamination, swaley cross-stratification and tangential to sigmoidal cross-bedding with mud drapes, related to marine offshore deposits. The lower Diamantino Formation is composed of a monotonous, laterally continuous for hundreds of metres, interbedded siltstone and fine-grained sandstone succession with regular parallel lamination, climbing ripple cross-lamination and ripple-bedding interpreted as distal turbidites. The upper part of this formation consists of fine to medium-grained sandstones with sigmoidal cross-bedding, planar lamination, climbing ripple cross-lamination, symmetrical to asymmetrical and linguoid ripple marks arranged in lobate sand bodies. These facies are interbedded with thick siltstone in coarsening upward large-scale cycles related to a delta system. The Sepotuba Formation characterises the last transgressive deposits of the Paraguay basin representing the final stage of a marine incursion of the Clymene ocean. The progression of orogenesis in the hinterland resulted in the confinement of the Sepotuba sea as a foredeep sub-basin against the edge of the Amazon craton. Turbidites were generated during the deepening of the basin. The successive filling of the basin was associated with progradation of deltaic lobes from the southeast, in a wide lake or a restricted sea that formed after 541 ± 7 Ma. Southeastern to east dominant Neoproterozoic source regions were confirmed by zircon grains that yielded ages around 600 to 540 Ma, that are interpreted to be from granites in the Paraguay orogen. This overall regressive succession recorded in the Alto Paraguai Group represents the filling up of a foredeep basin after the final amalgamation of western Gondwana in the earliest Phanerozoic. 相似文献
126.
Badia Chulli Aysen Davraz Jalila Makni Mourad Bedir Hamed Ben Dhia 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2012,66(1):1-16
The Sfax Basin in eastern Tunisia is bounded to the east by the Mediterranean Sea. Thermal waters of the Sfax area have measured
temperatures of 23–36°C, and electrical conductivities of 3,200 and 14,980 μS/cm. Most of the thermal waters are characterized
as Na–Cl type although there are a few Na–SO4–Cl waters. They issue from Miocene units which are made up sands and sandstones interbedded with clay. The Quaternary sediments
cap the system. The heat source is high geothermal gradient which are determined downhole temperature measurements caused
by graben tectonics of the area. The results of mineral equilibrium modeling indicate that the thermal waters of the Sfax
Basin are undersaturated with respect to gypsum, anhydrite and fluorite, oversaturated with respect to kaolinite, dolomite,
calcite, microcline, quartz, chalcedony, and muscovite. Assessments from various chemical geothermometers, Na–K–Mg ternary
and mineral equilibrium diagrams suggest that the reservoir temperature of the Sfax area can reach up to 120°C. According
to δ18O and δ2H values, all thermal and cold groundwater is of meteoric origin. 相似文献
127.
Spatial and isotopic analysis of watershed soil loss and reservoir sediment accumulation rates in Lake Anna, Virginia, USA 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
Soil erosion and associated sedimentation are a threat to the sustainable use of surface water resources through the loss
of volume storage capacity and conveyance of pollutants to receiving water bodies. The RUSLE2 empirical model and isotopic
sediment core analyses were used to evaluate watershed erosion and reservoir sediment accumulation rates for Lake Anna, in
Central Virginia. A sediment flux rate of 66,000 Mg/year was estimated from the upper basin and land use was determined to
be the primary factor contributing to soil erosion. Barren lands and agricultural activities were estimated to contribute
the most sediment (>20 Mg/ha/year), whereas forested and herbaceous landscapes were less likely to erode (<0.3 Mg/ha/year).
Eleven separate 210Pb-based estimates of sediment accumulation were used to construct reservoir-scale sedimentation rates. Sedimentation rates
in the upper reaches of the reservoir were variable, ranging from 2.3 to 100 Mg/ha/year, with a median rate of 8.4 Mg/ha/year.
Historical sedimentation showed an increase in annual accumulation from 1972 to present. Based on these data the reservoir
has experienced a 2% loss of volume storage capacity since impoundment in 1972. Results from this study indicate that Lake
Anna is not currently experiencing excessive sedimentation and erosion problems. However, the predominance of highly erosive
soils (soil erodibility factor >0.30) within the watershed makes this system highly vulnerable to future anthropogenic stressors. 相似文献
128.
129.
Recently published work estimates that global sea level rise (SLR) approaching or exceeding 1 m by 2100 is plausible, thus significantly updating projections by the Fourth Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Furthermore, global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions over the 21st century will not only influence SLR in the next ??90 years, but will also commit Earth to several meters of additional SLR over subsequent centuries. In this context of worsening prospects for substantial SLR, we apply a new geospatial dataset to calculate low-elevation areas in coastal cities of the conterminous U.S.A. potentially impacted by SLR in this and following centuries. In total, 20 municipalities with populations greater than 300,000 and 160 municipalities with populations between 50,000 and 300,000 have land area with elevations at or below 6 m and connectivity to the sea, as based on the 1 arc-second National Elevation Dataset. On average, approximately 9% of the area in these coastal municipalities lies at or below 1 m. This figure rises to 36% when considering area at or below 6 m. Areal percentages of municipalities with elevations at or below 1?C6 m are greater than the national average along the Gulf and southern Atlantic coasts. In contrast to the national and international dimensions of and associated efforts to curb GHG emissions, our comparison of low-elevation areas in coastal cities of the conterminous U.S.A. clearly shows that SLR will potentially have very local, and disproportionate, impacts. 相似文献
130.
Ben P. Kirtman Edwin K. Schneider David M. Straus Dughong Min Robert Burgman 《Climate Dynamics》2011,37(11-12):2389-2416
The new interactive ensemble modeling strategy is used to diagnose how noise due to internal atmospheric dynamics impacts the forced climate response during the twentieth century (i.e., 1870?C1999). The interactive ensemble uses multiple realizations of the atmospheric component model coupled to a single realization of the land, ocean and ice component models in order to reduce the noise due to internal atmospheric dynamics in the flux exchange at the interface of the component models. A control ensemble of so-called climate of the twentieth century simulations of the Community Climate Simulation Model version 3 (CCSM3) are compared with a similar simulation with the interactive ensemble version of CCSM3. Despite substantial differences in the overall mean climate, the global mean trends in surface temperature, 500?mb geopotential and precipitation are largely indistinguishable between the control ensemble and the interactive ensemble. Large differences in the forced response; however, are detected particularly in the surface temperature of the North Atlantic. Associated with the forced North Atlantic surface temperature differences are local differences in the forced precipitation and a substantial remote rainfall response in the deep tropical Pacific. We also introduce a simple variance analysis to separately compare the variance due to noise and the forced response. We find that the noise variance is decreased when external forcing is included. In terms of the forced variance, we find that the interactive ensemble increases this variance relative to the control. 相似文献