EXTRA-SEASONAL PREDICTIONS OF SUMMER RAINFALL IN CHINA AND ENSO IN 2001 BY CLIMATE MODELS

China is a monsoon country.The most rainfalls in China concentrate on the summer seasons.More frequent floods or droughts occur in some parts of China.Therefore,the prediction ofsummer rainfall in China is a significant issue.As we know,the obvious impacts of the sea surfacetemperature anomalies(SSTA)on the summer rainfall over China have been noticed.Thepredictions of the SSTA have been involved in the research.The key project on short-term climate modeling prediction system has been finished in 2000.The system included an atmospheric general circulation model named AGCM95,a coupledatmospheric-oceanic general circulation model named AOGCM95,a regional climate model overChina named RegCM95,a high-resolution Indian-Pacific OGCM named IPOGCM95,and asimplified atmosphere-ocean dynamic model system named SAOMS95.They became theoperational prediction models of National Climate Center(NCC).Extra-seasonal predictions in 2001 have been conducted by several climate models,which werethe AGCM95,AOGCM95,RegCM95,IPOGCM95,AIPOGCM95,OSU/NCC,SAOMS95,IAPAPOGCM and CAMS/ZS.All of those models predicted the summer precipitation over China and/or the annual SSTA over the tropical Pacific Ocean in the Modeling Prediction Workshop held inMarch 2001.The assessments have shown that the most models predicted the distributions of main rain beltover Huanan and parts of Jiangnan and droughts over Huabei-Hetao and Huaihe River Valleyreasonably.The most models predicted successfully that a weaker cold phase of the SSTA over thecentral and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean would continue in 2001.The evaluations of extra-seasonal predictions have also indicated that the models had a certaincapability of predicting the SSTA over the tropical Pacific Ocean and the summer rainfall overChina.The assessment also showed that multi-model ensemble(super ensembles)predictionsprovided the better forecasts for both SSTA and summer rainfall in 2001,compared with the singlemodel.It is a preliminary assessment for the extra-seasonal predictions by the climate models.Thefurther investigations will be carried out.The model system should be developed and improved.     

烃源岩非均质性的控制因素研究--以东营凹陷为例

下第三系沙河街组是东营凹陷最重要的生储组合。通过对沙河街组烃源岩的研究,发现厚度大、分布广的沙四段和沙三段烃源岩在有机质组成和岩性等方面存在多种尺度的非均质性。从宏观到微观系统分析烃源岩的非均质性后发现,沙河街组烃源岩的非均质性明显受其体系域、沉积相带、有机质保存务件和古生产力等多种因素控制。其中,不同的体系域和沉积相带控制了烃源岩的岩性和岩相组合及生、排烃能力,高的古生产力是有机质富集的前提,缺氧还原环境使有机质能够保存的决定因素,同时,局部环境下发育的火山活动,对优质烃源岩的形成也具有重要作用。     

西藏札达县夏浦沟的放射虫硅质岩和岛弧火山岩: 新特提斯洋内俯冲体系的记录?

在西藏阿里地区夏浦沟野外调查发现放射虫硅质岩、熔岩组合.放射虫硅质岩SiO₂含量在89.47%~92.94%之间, Si/Al在43~67之间, Al/ (Al+Fe+Mn) 比值在0.68~0.74之间, MnO/TiO₂平均比值为0.60, Ce/Ce*平均值为0.89, La_N/Ce_N平均值1.09, 指示它位于洋盆和大陆边缘过渡的环境, 总体更接近大陆边缘环境.伴生的火山熔岩以安山质为主, 具低TiO₂ (0.75%~0.98%)、轻稀土弱富集和源自板片流体的易溶元素如Ba、U、Pb相对轻稀土富集, 亏损高场强元素(HFSE) Nb、Ta、Ti等, 指示形成于岛弧环境, 很可能是中生代新特提斯洋洋内俯冲系统的组分.放射虫动物群主要包括Alievium cf.regulare、Alievium cf.fatuum、Archaeospongoprunum cf.patricki、Archaeodictyimitra mitra Dumitrica等早白垩世分子, 其提供了岛弧活动时间上限的约束.      

基于风险分析的商业性找矿预测新方法与应用

基于风险分析的商业性找矿预测新方法主要限于针对矿山深部和外围找矿预测与风险投资中的商业性矿产勘探。从风险分析和经济地质学角度对以往研究成果进行系统总结,认为成矿成晕模式与地质地球化学找矿预测系统、构造地球化学方法、矿体探采对比、广度搜索选优评价(矿点与异常成矿概率法)、深度解剖评价与定量预测等技术方法在金属矿山(床)找矿预测中应用前景广阔,矿物地球化学、岩相学亚相-微相填编图等新预测方法完善后可广泛推广应用。基于风险分析的商业性找矿预测方法技术不断发展,有助于满足境外矿产勘查迅猛发展和矿业权交易量增加的商业性矿产勘查新局势需求,推动矿产勘查和开发项目现代管理水平的提升。     

江苏东海芝麻房预先导孔（CCSD-PPl）橄榄岩及其反映的上地幔亏损和交代事件

芝麻房预先导孔橄榄岩岩石类型有二辉橄榄岩、方辉橄榄岩、单辉橄榄岩和纯橄榄岩，其中前3种多数含有石榴子石。这些岩石在垂向上显示成层性，没有某种方向的韵律变化，它们之间呈渐变过渡关系。对样品进行主量元素、微量元素、稀土元素和Sr、Nd、O同位素分析表明，随着样品MgO含量的增高，Al2O3、CaO逐渐降低，呈良好的相关关系，并且大致上从石榴橄榄岩类到不含石榴子石的橄榄岩类主量元素的亏损程度增高，两者一般均比原始地幔主量元素亏损。稀土元素配分型式表现为右倾的轻稀土富集型，在微量元素蛛网图上，也表现为强不相容元素和微量元素到适度不相容元素的总体右倾型，与原始地幔相比，均富集强不相容元素。富集程度的不同与主量元素的亏损无对应关系，说明主量元素和微量元素各自的特点不是同一种事件造成的，而是先前地幔部分熔融作用之后又发生了富含不相容元素流体的交代作用。Sr、Nd同位素具有富集特点，变化范围较大，而且主量元素较亏损的岩石更富集Sr同位素，显示了交代富集的特点。稀土元素(Ce／Yb)x比值和εNd之间的负相关关系和Rb丰度与Sr同位素之间的正相关关系表明，富集Sr、Nd同位素的流体和富集不相容微量元素的流体均来自地幔。     

瑞利波勘探中"之"字形频散曲线研究

研究了弹性层状半空间中导波的多模性问题,说明了关于瑞利波勘探中"之"字形频散曲线的形成机理.证明由单个的导波模式不可能得到"之"字形频散曲线,并从能量的角度出发,研究了各模式的实际强度与地层参数的关系,克服了从相速度的角度解释"之"字形频散曲线的困难.还深入研究了地表下低速层介质的位置、厚度及其他参数对"之"字形频散曲线的相互影响.与实际资料进行了对比分析,理论结果和实际情况基本相符.     

两类埃达克岩(Adakite)的判别

埃达克岩是目前地学界的研究热点 ,普遍认为具有两种成因类型。在大量分析已经发表的两类埃达克岩资料的基础上 ,发现通过 Sr/Y- w (Y)散点图、Sr- Y× 10 - Zr三角图、Y/Yb- Sr/Y- L a/Yb三角图能够判别 , 类埃达克岩。     

Reflection of Short Waves

—According to the energy equation,the relation between reflection and energy losses for shortwaves from mild beaches is established and analysed.A reflection coefficient varying with position and en-ergy losses is proposed.Different reflection tests are conducted to check the theoretical analysis.A modi-fied method to estimate the reflection coefficient at varied water depths is suggested based on the linearwave theory.The study indicates that the reflection coefficient from mild beaches has a changing trend forshort waves approaching shoreline.     

微观结构超压机制与超高压矿物的形成

提出了由岩石及矿物的结构形态、岩石力学性质不同引起的微结构超压机制。对影响结构超压的诸因素(弹性参数、热物理性质)进行了数值模拟实验和定量分析。研究结果表明,结构压力对超高压岩石、矿物的形成具有重要的意义。结构压力随弹性模量差异、围限压力、温度改变量及热膨胀系数差异的增加而增大。在岩石、矿物的弹性模量相差5倍的条件下,结构附加压力可达到静岩压力的45％左右。如果再考虑热膨胀系数不同及降温引起的附加压力,在较一般的情况下,60公里左右深处就有可能具备柯石英等超高压矿物形成的下限压力条件。     

FZY-1型多分量式钻孔应变仪的设计

介绍了最新研制的FZY-1型多分量式钻孔应变仪的探头的设计,所采用的电路,仪器参数的检测方法及该仪器的安装方法。