Travelling in antique lands: using past famines to develop an adaptability/resilience framework to identify food systems vulnerable to climate change

This paper builds on existing theory and proposes a framework to identify vulnerability to climate change in food systems by examining historic cases where common environmental problems caused famine. Cases presented are (1) Ireland’s Potato Famine, (2) El Niño induced famines during the Colonial period, and (3) Ethiopia between 1965 and 1997. Three factors stand out as common in each. Prior to each famine: (1) there were very few ways that people could obtain a living in the worst affected regions; (2) livelihoods in famine stricken communities came to depend on highly specialized agro-ecosystems that were sensitive to environmental change; (3) institutions failed to provide adequate safety nets to protect livelihoods from failure. This analysis suggests that vulnerability to climate change in food systems can be assessed by looking at agro-ecosystems, livelihoods and institutions. Local conditions, however, mean that ways of measuring these three factors will vary from place to place. As a result, direct comparisons are difficult. By conceptualizing these three variables as the axes of a three dimensional “vulnerability” space, it is possible to compare regions and look at trends over time by studying the paths through this “space” as traced by changes at the agro-ecosystem, livelihood, and institutional scale.     

Mesoproterozoic rift sedimentation,fluid events and uranium prospectivity in the Cariewerloo Basin,Gawler Craton,South Australia

The Cariewerloo Basin formed in the Mesoproterozoic following assembly of the Gawler Craton, South Australia, and was filled by arenaceous redbeds of the Pandurra Formation. While previous regional-scale work reveals a basin with similar size and sedimentary fill to the Proterozoic Athabasca and Kombolgie basins that host unconformity-related uranium deposits, few details of the Cariewerloo Basin are known. In this study, stratigraphy, petrography, lithogeochemistry, stable isotope geochemistry and ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar geochronology are integrated to clarify the depositional history of the Pandurra Formation, and to assess fluid events in the basin that could be linked to the formation of uranium deposits. In the study area, the Pandurra Formation was deposited in two eastward-thickening packages that terminate at faulted basement uplifts, interpreted as half-grabens that formed in a continental rift system as the eastern Gawler Craton underwent extension. Deposition occurred between 1575 Ma (latest Hiltaba Suite age) and ca 1490 Ma, the ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar age of diagenetic illite in the basal Pandurra. Diagenesis involving fluids having δ¹⁸O and δ²H values between –2.1 and 3.6‰, and between –66 and –8‰, respectively, occurred at around 150°C. Protracted diagenesis preferentially occurred in the upper Pandurra Formation based on petrography and Pearce Element Ratios that show complete replacement of detrital lithic and feldspathic grains by diagenetic phyllosilicates, and younger ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar ages between ca 1330 and 1200 Ma that record fluid events later into basin history. Conversely, the basal Pandurra Formation shows better preservation of detrital grains, and older ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar ages around 1450 Ma that suggest these strata became closed to fluid flow earlier in basin history. Although, based on O-isotope ratios, fluid–rock interaction did not occur in the Cariewerloo Basin to the same extent as that in the Athabasca or Kombolgie basins, it is possible that a uranium deposit formed where the upper Pandurra Formation was in contact with metasedimentary basement units outside the present basin margins.     

Towards practical autonomous deep-space navigation using X-Ray pulsar timing

We investigate the feasibility of deep-space navigation using the highly stable periodic signals from X-ray pulsars in combination with dedicated instrumentation on the spacecraft: a technique often referred to as ‘XNAV’. The results presented are based on the outputs from a study undertaken for the European Space Agency. The potential advantages of this technique include increased spacecraft autonomy and lower mission operating costs. Estimations of navigation uncertainties have been obtained using simulations of different pulsar combinations and navigation strategies. We find that the pulsar PSR B1937?+?21 has potential to allow spacecraft positioning uncertainties of ~2 and ~5 km in the direction of the pulsar after observation times of 10 and 1 h respectively, for ranges up to 30 AU. This could be achieved autonomously on the spacecraft using a focussing X-ray instrument of effective area ~50 cm² together with a high performance atomic clock. The Mercury Imaging X-ray Spectrometer (MIXS) instrument, due to be launched on the ESA/JAXA BepiColombo mission to Mercury in 2018, is an example of an instrument that may be further developed as a practical telescope for XNAV. For a manned mission to Mars, where an XNAV system could provide valuable redundancy, observations of the three pulsars PSR B1937?+?21, B1821-24 and J0437-4715 would enable a three-dimensional positioning uncertainty of ~30 km for up to 3 months without the need to contact Earth-based systems. A lower uncertainty may be achieved, for example, by use of extended observations or, if feasible, by use of a larger instrument. X-ray instrumentation suitable for use in an operational XNAV subsystem must be designed to require only modest resources, especially in terms of size, mass and power. A system with a focussing optic is required in order to reduce the sky and particle background against which the source must be measured. We examine possible options for future developments in terms of simpler, lower-cost Kirkpatrick-Baez optics. We also discuss the principal design and development challenges that must be addressed in order to realise an operational XNAV system.     

A new technique for evaluating mesospheric momentum balance utilizing radars and satellite data

A new method for evaluating momentum balance in the mesosphere using radar and satellite data is presented. This method is applied to radar wind data from two medium frequency installations (near Adelaide, Australia and Christchurch, New Zealand) and satellite temperature data from the Improved Stratospheric and Mesospheric Sounder (ISAMS). Because of limitations in data availability and vertical extent, the technique can only be applied to evaluate the momentum balance at 80 km above the radar sites for May 1992. The technique allows the calculation of the residual terms in the momentum balance which are usually attributed to the effects of breaking gravity waves. Although the results are inconclusive above Adelaide, this method produces values of zonal and meridional residual accelerations above Christchurch which are consistent with expectation. In both locations it is apparent that geostrophic balance is a poor approximation of reality. (This result is not dependent on a mismatch between the radar and satellite derived winds, but rather is inherent in the satellite data alone.) Despite significant caveats about data quality the technique appears robust and could be of use with data from future instruments.     

Lateglacial and Holocene relative sea‐level changes and first evidence for the Storegga tsunami in Sutherland,Scotland

We reconstruct one of the longest relative sea‐level (RSL) records in north‐west Europe from the north coast of mainland Scotland, using data collected from three sites in Loch Eriboll (Sutherland) that we combine with other studies from the region. Following deglaciation, RSL fell from a Lateglacial highstand of +6?8 m OD (Ordnance Datum = ca. mean sea level) at ca. 15 k cal a BP to below present, then rose to an early Holocene highstand and remained at ca. +1 m OD between ca. 7 and 3 k cal a BP, before falling to present. We find no evidence for significant differential Holocene glacio‐isostatic adjustment between sites on the north‐west (Lochinver, Loch Laxford), north (Loch Eriboll) and north‐east (Wick) coast of mainland Scotland. This suggests that the region was rapidly deglaciated and there was little difference in ice loads across the region. From one site at the head of Loch Eriboll we report the most westerly sedimentary evidence for the early Holocene Storegga tsunami on the Scottish mainland. The presence of the Storegga tsunami in Loch Eriboll is predicted by a tsunami wave model, which suggests that the tsunami impacted the entire north coast of Scotland and probably also the Atlantic coastline of north‐west Scotland.

     

A hybrid measurement approach for close-range photogrammetry

Full automation in close-range photogrammetric measurement has long been a practical reality. However, constraints apply to the process such that automated 3D measurement is generally confined to targeted points in an environment of controlled illumination. The ready availability of consumer-grade digital cameras has made photogrammetric measurement accessible and more widely employed for a host of new applications, the majority of which call for 3D measurement of other than signalized object features. Process automation is therefore typically precluded. This paper discusses a hybrid measurement approach which involves fully automatic network orientation with targets, while at the same time supporting follow-up semi-automatic and manual operations such as feature point and line extraction and surface measurement via image matching. The topics discussed include camera calibration, the metric exploitation of colour attributes, issues related to image point correspondence determination, operator assisted feature measurement and surface extraction. All are important to the practical realisation of the hybrid measurement approach.     

The influence of vegetation cover on evapotranspiration atop waste rock piles,Elk Valley,British Columbia

Surface mining in the Elk Valley, British Columbia, involves removing vegetation, soil, and rock to access underlying metallurgical coal. Subsequent waste rock is placed into adjacent valleys, frequently burying headwater streams. Due to their coarse texture, waste rock piles increase infiltration and percolation, increasing solute transport and concentration of geochemicals in downstream surface waters. Previous research suggests that weathering solutes are transport limited, and it is hypothesized that revegetation will enhance evapotranspiration (ET) and reduce percolation through the waste rock, potentially reducing loading. This study examined the surface‐atmosphere water and energy exchanges using the eddy covariance technique for three waste rock surfaces with different levels of reclamation: (a) an ~25‐year‐old mixed coniferous forest, (b) a grass site, and (c) bare waste rock. Measurements were taken from May to October in 2013 and 2014. Soil moisture and matric suction were measured to 1‐m depth. Sap flow at the forested site was measured to partition transpiration from total ET. In all years, ET rates were greatest at the forested site, followed by the grass cover and lowest at the bare waste rock site. Growing season ET rates at the forest were 56% higher than grass in 2013 and 35% higher in 2014. At the vegetated sites, climate was the main driver of ET, with high radiation, and warm and dry conditions enhancing fluxes. Maximum ET at these sites corresponded with peak growing season, with vegetation increasing both transpiration and rainfall interception. At the bare rock site, ET was weakly related to atmospheric conditions, and ET rates briefly increased during periods following rainfall when near‐surface soil moisture was enhanced. Transpiration comprised 29% of overall ET at the forest site from late July to early October. Results suggest that vegetation establishment can be incorporated into mine reclamation plans to enhance ET rates and limit percolation, potentially reducing downstream geochemical loads.     

Faecal indicators and pathogens in selected New Zealand waterfowl

Freshly excreted droppings from Canada geese (n=80), black swans (n=80), ducks (n=80) and gulls (n=80) were collected from sites around New Zealand. The droppings were enumerated for Escherichia coli, enterococci and Salmonella spp., and for the presence/absence of Cryptosporidium spp. Overall prevalence of E. coli and enterococci in samples was 95% and 94%, respectively. Cryptosporidium spp. was detected in 2% of the samples, whereas no Salmonella spp. were detected in the survey. Preliminary estimates of daily microbial outputs suggest that ducks will produce the highest loadings of E. coli and enterococci per bird, whereas Canada geese will produce the highest loadings of Campylobacter spp. per bird. This study provides the first set of indicator and pathogen counts for one of the largest sources of diffuse faecal contamination of natural waters in New Zealand.     

Pb,Sr and 10Be isotopic studies of volcanic rocks from the Northern Mariana Islands. Implications for magma genesis and crustal recycling in the Western Pacific

We report Sr and Pb isotope analyses for an extensive suite of volcanic rocks from the N. Mariana arc together with Sr and Pb isotope analyses of sediments from the nearby Mariana and Nauru basins. In addition ten of the most recent volcanic samples were analysed for ¹⁰Be.The Sr isotope compositions cluster tightly around ${}^{87}\text{Sr}{}^{86}\text{Sr}$ = 0.7035 being slightly but significantly higher than the Pacific ocean floor basalts on either side of the arc and agreeing well with previous data. In contrast, the large number of new Pb isotopic data presented significantly extends the observed range of Pb isotope compositions for volcanic rocks from the Mariana arc to more radiogenic compositions. The concentrations of ¹⁰Be were very low (< 0.5 × 10⁶ atom g^?1).These new data require either that the Pb and Sr isotopic compositions of the Mariana sub-arc mantle be substantially different from those of the mantle source of ocean floor basalts on either side of the arc, or that the enrichment in radiogenic Pb and Sr relative to the values observed in Pacific ocean floor basalts be related to the subduction process. We prefer the latter hypothesis in which radiogenic Sr and Pb in ocean floor sediments are added to M.O.R.B. type mantle either by direct assimilation of the sediments in partial melts or, more probably, by transfer in a fluid phase into the zone of magma production. The low ¹⁰Be concentrations observed suggest the removal of at least the top few metres of sediment during subduction.     

Monthly mean winds in the mesosphere at 44S and 78S

A medium frequency partial-reflection spaced-antenna wind radar was installed at Scott Base (78S) on Ross Island, Antarctica, in November 1982. Results from this radar for the period December 1982 to October 1984 inclusive are compared with simultaneous measurements made with a similar radar at Christchurch (44S), N. Z. Monthly mean zonal winds measured at 80 km are compared with recent models for the Southern Hemisphere middle atmosphere. There is a general agreement with the models but there is evidence that the Christchurch winter flow was atypical in 1983.