Gutenberg-Richter公式和灰色理论GM模型在地震预测中的联合应用

以华北地区 (33°～ 4 3°N ,10 9°～ 12 4°E)地震为例 ,用Gutenberg -Richter公式研究了地震均匀分布情况。结果表明 :自 1970年到 2 0 0 1年以来 ,本地区 2 0≤M <4 0的地震偏少、 4 0≤M <6 0的地震偏多、 6 0≤M<7 0的地震偏少、M≥ 7 0的地震偏多 ;然后择其将导致本地区较大社会影响、人员伤亡、经济损失的偏少地震——— 6 0≤M <7 0级地震进行灰色理论GM模型预测。通过上面的应用 ,使两理论优点在地震预测中得到结合 ,地震预测更有的放矢 ,预测结果更可信、更有效。     

Analysis and study of the large earthquake risk in Yanqing-Huailai basin

ＡｎａｌｙｓｉｓａｎｄｓｔｕｄｙｏｆｔｈｅｌａｒｇｅｅａｒｔｈｑｕａｋｅｒｉｓｋｉｎＹａｎｑｉｎｇＨｕａｉｌａｉｂａｓｉｎＣＨＡＮＧＱＵＡＮＬＩＵ（刘昌铨）ＳＨＩＸＵＪＩＡ（嘉世旭）ＭＩＮＧＪＵＮＬＩＵ（刘明军）ＣＨＡＮＧＦＡＬＩ（李长发...     

STUDY ON MIXED MODEL OF NEURAL NETWORK FOR FARMLAND FLOOD/DROUGHT PREDICTION

The paper concerns a flood/drought prediction model involving the continuation of time seriesof a predictand and the physical factors influencing the change of predictand.Attempt is made toconstruct the model by the neural network scheme for the nonlinear mapping relation based onmulti-input and single output.The model is found of steadily higher predictive accuracy by testingthe output from one and multiple stepwise predictions against observations and comparing theresults to those from a traditional statistical model.     

Oxygen Isotope Exchange Kinetics Between Coexisting Minerals and Water in the Aral Granite Pluton of the Altay Mountains, Northern Xinjiang

Coexisting quartz, feldspar and biotite vary widely in their δ18O values and display a remarkable 18O/16O disequilibrium relation; especially, a quartz-feldspar reversal (△ 18OQUartz_feldspar< 0) exsists in the Aral granite pluton of the Altay Mountains, northern Xinjiang. The 18O / 16O exchange reaction definitely occurred between granite and water. Initial δ18O values of the granite and exotic fluid are evaluated by the mass balance consideration. The conventional method of discrimination between various magma derivations simply with δ18O values of either whole rock or separate minerals is misleading and unreliable. Experiments carried out by the authors show that the 18O / 16O exchange reaction is not accompanied by what geologists describe as petrological and mineralogical alteration effect. This decoupling relation implies that exchange reaction occurs at a relatively high temperature during subsolidus-postmagmatic cooling of magmas. The exchange mechanism is mainly diffusion-controlled. It is     

Integral Evolution Pattern of Intraplate Seismicity in Chinese Mainland and Its Periphery

Taking the active fault network as the structural frame, the Chinese mainland and its periphery can be regarded as a system of "fault movement and seismogeny." By using the self-coupling method, preliminary study shows that the seismogenic system is a time-ordered dissipation system. The time order in the state far from equilibrium is established and maintained through mass and energy exchanges between the system and the surroundings. The evolution of the seismogenic system follows some properties of unbalanced phase change, namely, critical retard, bifurcation, entropy reduction, etc.     

Early Estimation of Strong Aftershock Duration Time

In order to solve the problem of early estimation of moderately strong aftershock duration time in an earthquake sequence,this study has been conducted.First,the definition of the strong aftershock has been given.It is pointed out that there is a difference in the strong aftershock duration time between the main shock type sequence and the strong earthquake swarm sequence.After dividing the three cases,i.e.,a strong aftershock duration time larger than 1 day,smaller than 1 day,and no strong aftershock occurred in a main shock type sequence by using the pattern recognition method,we gave the rough correlation relation between strong aftershock duration time and first large shock magnitude for two types of sequences.Finally,the judgment index and method of estimating strong aftershock duration times for different sequence types have been given.     

腾冲火山区S波速度结构接收函数反演

腾冲火山区临近印度板块与欧亚板块碰撞、俯冲的边界，火山活动与构造环境关系密切．采用远震接收函数反演的方法揭示了该区域的深部结构特征. 结果显示, 腾冲火山区S波低速结构明显受到NE向大盈江断裂的影响，断裂的南部存在明显的S波低速构，断裂的北部低速结构不十分明显．火山区存在浅部的低速结构，低速结构与地震活动性存在对应关系．证实了低速结构是火山区热活动的直接因素, 并认为腾冲火山区存在再次活动的基本条件．      

地球同步轨道附近哨声湍流对“种子电子”的加速

本文在等离子体准线性理论下研究了地球同步轨道附近哨声湍流对亚暴“种子电子”的波-电子共振相互作用. 当发生这种共振时，“种子电子”的动量分布函数经动量扩散而随时间演化，部分低能电子数减少了，而高能尾部分的相对论电子（能量大于1MeV）数增加了，说明“种子电子”得到了哨声湍流的有效加速，且哨声湍流的能量越高，其加速效率越高. 另外，哨声湍流的频率越低（或波数越小），共振电子的能量越高（或单位质量的动量越大）；频率范围越宽，共振电子的能量范围越宽，被加速的电子数也越多. 磁层哨声湍流加速“种子电子” 大约在30h内就可以造成相对论电子数显著增加，这正好和大多数磁暴期间观测到的相对论电子通量的增长时间相当.     

柴达木盆地新生代不同层次构造特征

应用柴达木盆地地震、非地震资料进行综合解释研究发现,新生代盆地深、浅层构造存在较大差异,盆地沉积在不同时期受到不同构造格局的控制。古近系受近东西向构造控制,新近系受北西向构造控制,显示了柴达木盆地新生代为不同时期受不同方向构造控制的大型叠合盆地。盆地地层深、浅层构造变形特征不同,深层表现为陡倾的逆冲断裂构造,以断块构造为主要特征;中浅层表现为滑脱褶皱与滑脱断裂构造;地表在背斜核部发育斜列展布的正断层构造。盆地经历了多旋回沉积和多方式的后期改造,不同的构造组合形成了不同的储油气构造模式,认识这一点对于盆地深层的油气勘探,特别是寻找隐蔽油气藏具有重要意义。     

Large aftershocks triggering by Coulomb failure stress following the 2001 M_S=8.1 great Kunlun earthquake

IntroductionItisshowedbyresearchesonearthquakestresstriggeringrecentlythatsmall'static'stresschangesduetopermanentfaultdisplacementcanalterthelikelihoodof,ortrigger,earthquakesonnearbyfaults(Harris,1998).Manystudiesoftriggeringinthenear-field,particularlyofaftershocks,showthesestaticchangesaretriggeringagent(Kilb,etal,2000).ReasenbergandSimpson(1992)studiedthere-sponseofregionalseismicitytothestaticstresschangeproducedbyLomaPrietaearthquake,andtheresultsshowedthataftershockratesincreasedinre…