Low-cost volcano surveillance from space: case studies from Etna, Krafla, Cerro Negro, Fogo, Lascar and Erebus

 Satellite data offer a means of supplementing ground-based monitoring during volcanic eruptions, especially at times or locations where ground-based monitoring is difficult. Being directly and freely available several times a day, data from the advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) offers great potential for near real-time monitoring of all volcanoes across large (3000×3000 km) areas. Herein we describe techniques to detect and locate activity; estimate lava area, thermal flux, effusion rates and cumulative volume; and distinguish types of activity. Application is demonstrated using data for active lavas at Krafla, Etna, Fogo, Cerro Negro and Erebus; a pyroclastic flow at Lascar; and open vent systems at Etna and Stromboli. Automated near real-time analysis of AVHRR data could be achieved at existing, or cheap to install, receiving stations, offering a supplement to conventional monitoring methods. Received: 21 January 1997 / Accepted: 3 April 1997     

Measurements of the north polar cap of Mars and the Earth's northern hemisphere ice and snow cover

The boundaries of the polar caps of Mars have been measured on more than 3000 photographs since 1905 from the plate collection at the Lowell Observatory. For the Earth, the polar caps have been accurately mapped only since the mid 1960's when satellites were first available to synoptically view the polar regions. The polar caps of both planets wax and wane in response to changes in the seasons, and interannual differences in polar cap behavior on Mars as well as Earth are intimately linked to global energy balance. Data on the year to year variations in the extent of the north polar caps of Mars and Earth have been assembled and compared, although only 6 years of concurrent data were available for comparison.     

Integration error over very long time spans

The main limit to the time span of a numerical integration of the planetary orbits is no longer set by the availability of computer resources, but rather by the accumulation of the integration error. By the latter we mean the difference between the computed orbit and the dynamical behaviour of the real physical system, whatever the causes. The analysis of these causes requires an interdisciplinary effort: there are physical model and parameters errors, algorithm and discretisation errors, rounding off errors and reliability problems in the computer hardware and system software, as well as instabilities in the dynamical system. We list all the sources of integration error we are aware of and discuss their relevance in determining the present limit to the time span of a meaningful integration of the orbit of the planets. At present this limit is of the order of 10⁸ years for the outer planets. We discuss in more detail the truncation error of multistep algorithms (when applied to eccentric orbits), the coefficient error, the method of Encke and the associated coordinate change error, the procedures used to test the numerical integration software and their limitations. Many problems remain open, including the one of a realistic statistical model of the rounding off error; at present, the latter can only be described by a semiempirical model based upon the simpleN ² formula (N=number of steps, =machine accuracy), with an unknown numerical coefficient which is determined only a posteriori.     

Monitoring selective availability dither frequencies and their effect on GPS data

Summary The signals transmitted by Block II satellites of the Global Positioning System (GPS) can be degraded to limit the highest accuracy of the system (10 m or better point positioning) to authorized users. This mode of degraded operation is called Selective Availability (S/A). S/A involves the degradation in the quality of broadcast orbits and satellite clock dithering. We monitored the dithered satellite oscillator and investigated the effect of this clock dithering on high accuracy relative positioning. The effect was studied over short 3-meter and zero-baselines with two GPS receivers. The equivalent S/A effects for baselines ranging from 0 to >10,000 km can be examined with short test baselines if the receiver clocks are deliberately mis-synchronized by a known and varying amount. Our results show that the maximum effect of satellite clock dithering on GPS double difference phase residuals grows as a function of the clock synchronization error according to: S/A _effect =0.04 cm/msec, and it increases as a function of baseline length like: S/A _effect =0.014 cm/100 km. These are equations for maximum observed values of post-fit residuals due to S/A. The effect on GPS baselines is likely to be smaller than the 0.14 mm for a baseline separation of 100 km. We therefore conclude, for our limited data set, and for the level of S/A during our tests, that S/A clock dithering has negligible effect on all terrestrial GPS baselines if double difference processing techniques are employed and if the GPS receivers remain synchronized to better than 10 msec. S/A may constitute a problem, however, if accurate point processing is required, or if GPS receivers are not synchronized. We suggest and test two different methods to monitor satellite frequency offsets due to S/A. S/A modulates GPS carrier frequencies in the range of-2 Hz to +2 Hz over time periods of several minutes. The methods used in this paper to measure the satellite clock dither could be applied by the civilian GPS community to continuously monitor S/A clock dithering. The monitored frequencies may aid high accuracy point positioning applications in a postprocessing mode (Malys and Ortiz 1989), and differential GPS with poorly synchronized receivers (Feigl et al. 1991).     

V792 Her=HD 155638: A totally eclipsing RS CVn binary

Photometry of HD 155638=V792 Her has been analyzed to determine the elements of this totally eclipsing RS CVn binary. The light variation outside eclipse was found to have a period of 27^d.07±0^d.07, which is slightly different from the 27^d.5384±0^d.0045 orbital period. Analysis of the eclipses was achieved by a modification of the Russell-Merrill technique. With the aid of radial velocity measures, absolute elements were obtained for the hot and cool stars, respectively;R _h=2.58R ,R _c=12.28R ,M _h=1.40M ,M _c=1.46M ,i=80^o.61 and velocity semi-amplitudesK _c=48.36 km s^–1±0.79 km s^–1, andK _h=50.50 km s^–1±0.33 km s^–1. The apparent magnitudes areV _h=9 ^m .73 andV _c=8 ^m .48. The distance to HD 155638 was estimated to be 310 parsecs.     

Properties of r-modes in the Sun

Global oscillations of the Sun (r-modes) with very long periods 1 month are reviewed and studied. Such modes would be trapped in an acoustic cavity formed either by most of the convective envelope or by most of the radiative interior. A turning point frequency giving cavity boundaries is defined and the run of eigenvalues for angular harmonics l 3 are plotted for a conventional solar convection zone. The r-modes show equipartition of oscillatory energy among shells which each contain one antinode in the radial dimension. Toroidal motion is dominant to at least the 14^th radial harmonic mode. Viscosity from convective turbulence is strong and would damp any mode in just a few solar rotations if it were the only significant nonadiabatic effect. Radial fine splitting which lifts the degeneracy in n is very small (20 nHz or less) for all n 14 trapped in the envelope. But, if splitting could be detected, we would have a valuable new constraint on solar convection theories.     

The age of the martian meteorite Northwest Africa 1195 and the differentiation history of the shergottites

Samarium-neodymium isotopic analyses of unleached and acid-leached mineral fractions from the recently identified olivine-bearing shergottite Northwest Africa 1195 yield a crystallization age of 347 ± 13 Ma and an value of +40.1 ± 0.9. Maskelynite fractions do not lie on the Sm-Nd isochron and appear to contain a martian surface component with low ¹⁴⁷Sm/¹⁴⁴Nd and ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd ratios that was added during shock. The Rb-Sr system is disturbed and does not yield an isochron. Terrestrial Sr appears to have affected all of the mineral fractions, although a maximum initial ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratio of 0.7016 is estimated by passing a 347 Ma reference line through the maskelynite fraction that is least affected by contamination. The high initial value and the low initial ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratio, combined with the geologically young crystallization age, indicate that Northwest Africa 1195 is derived from a source region characterized by a long-term incompatible-element depletion.The age and initial Sr and Nd isotopic compositions of Northwest Africa 1195 are very similar to those of Queen Alexandra Range 94201, indicating these samples were derived from source regions with similar Sr-Nd isotopic systematics. These similarities suggest that these two meteorites share a close petrogenetic relationship and might have been erupted from a common volcano. The meteorites Yamato 980459, Dar al Gani 476, Sayh al Uhaymir 005/008, and Dhofar 019 also have relatively old ages between 474 and 575 Ma and trace element and/or isotopic systematics that are indicative of derivation from incompatible-element-depleted sources. This suggests that the oldest group of meteorites is more closely related to one another than they are to the younger meteorites that are derived from less incompatible-element-depleted sources. Closed-system fractional crystallization of this suite of meteorites is modeled with the MELTS algorithm using the bulk composition of Yamato 980459 as a parent. These models reproduce many of the major element and mineralogical variations observed in the suite. In addition, the rare earth element systematics of these meteorites are reproduced by fractional crystallization using the proportions of phases and extents of crystallization that are calculated by MELTS. Other shergottites that demonstrate enrichments in incompatible-elements and have evolved Sr and Nd isotopic systematics have some geochemical systematics that are similar to those observed in the depleted group. Most notably, although they exhibit a very limited range of incompatible trace element and isotopic compositions, they have highly variable major element compositions. This is also consistent with evolution from a common mantle source region by variable amounts of fractional crystallization. If this scenario is correct, it suggests that the combined effects of source composition and fractional crystallization are likely to account for the major element, trace element, and isotopic diversity of all shergottites.