Statistical identification of orographic effects in the regional analysis of extreme rainfall

Regional models of extreme rainfall must address the spatial variability induced by orographic obstacles. However, the proper detection of orographic effects often depends on the availability of a well‐designed rain gauge network. The aim of this study is to investigate a new method for identifying and characterizing the effects of orography on the spatial structure of extreme rainfall at the regional scale, including where rainfall data are lacking or fail to describe rainfall features thoroughly. We analyse the annual maxima of daily rainfall data in the Campania region, an orographically complex region in Southern Italy, and introduce a statistical procedure to identify spatial outliers in a low order statistic (namely the mean). The locations of these outliers are then compared with a pattern of orographic objects that has been a priori identified through the application of an automatic geomorphological procedure. The results show a direct and clear link between a particular set of orographic objects and a local increase in the spatial variability of extreme rainfall. This analysis allowed us to objectively identify areas where orography produces enhanced variability in extreme rainfall. It has direct implications for rain gauge network design criteria and has led to promising developments in the regional analysis of extreme rainfall. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Deciphering late Devonian–early Carboniferous P–T–t path of mylonitized garnet-mica schists from Prins Karls Forland,Svalbard

Quartz-in-garnet inclusion barometry integrated with trace element thermometry and calculated phase relations is applied to mylonitized schists of the Pinkie unit cropping out on the island of Prins Karls Forland, western part of the Svalbard Archipelago. This approach combines conventional and novel techniques and allows deciphering of the pressure–temperature (P–T) evolution of mylonitic rocks, for which the P–T conditions could not have been easily deciphered using traditional methods. The results obtained suggest that rocks of the Pinkie unit were metamorphosed under amphibolite facies conditions at 8–10 kbar and 560–630°C and mylonitized at ~500 to 550°C and 9–11 kbar. The P–T results are coupled with in-situ Th–U-total Pb monazite dating, which records amphibolite facies metamorphism at c. 359–355 Ma. This is the very first evidence of late Devonian–early Carboniferous metamorphism in Svalbard and it implies that the Ellesmerian Orogeny on Svalbard was associated with metamorphism up to amphibolite facies conditions. Thus, it can be concluded that the Ellesmerian collision between the Franklinian margin of Laurentia and Pearya and Svalbard caused not only commonly accepted brittle deformation and weak greenschist facies metamorphism, but also a burial and deformation of rock complexes at much greater depths at elevated temperatures.     

Late Holocene environmental conditions in Coronation Gulf,southwestern Canadian Arctic Archipelago: evidence from dinoflagellate cysts,other non‐pollen palynomorphs,and pollen

Boxcore 99LSSL‐001 (68.095° N, 114.186° W; 211 m water depth) from Coronation Gulf represents the first decadal‐scale marine palynology and late Holocene sediment record for the southwestern part of the Northwest Passage. The record was studied for organic‐walled microfossils (dinoflagellate cysts, non‐pollen palynomorphs), pollen, terrestrial spores, and sediment characteristics. ²¹⁰Pb, ¹³⁷Cs, and three accelerator mass spectrometry ¹⁴C dates constrain the chronology. Three prominent palaeoenvironmental zones were identified. During the interval AD 1470–1680 (Zone I), the climate was warmer and wetter than at present, and environmental conditions were more favourable to biological activity and northward boreal forest migration, with reduced sea‐ice and a longer open‐water (growing) season. The interval AD 1680–1940 (Zone II) records sea‐ice increase, and generally cool, polar conditions during the Little Ice Age. During AD 1940–2000 (Zone III), organic microfossils indicate an extended open‐water season and decreased sea‐ice, with suggested amelioration surpassing that of Zone I. Although more marine studies are needed to place this record into an appropriate context, the succession from ameliorated (Zone I) to cooler, sea‐ice influenced conditions (Zone II) and finally to 20th‐century warming (Zone III) corresponds well with several terrestrial climatic records from the neighbouring mainland and Victoria Island, and with lower‐resolution marine records to the west. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Watershed structural influences on the distributions of stream network water and solute travel times under baseflow conditions

Watershed structure influences the timing, magnitude, and spatial location of water and solute entry to stream networks. In turn, stream reach transport velocities and stream network geometry (travel distances) further influence the timing of export from watersheds. Here, we examine how watershed and stream network organization can affect travel times of water from delivery to the stream network to arrival at the watershed outlet. We analysed watershed structure and network geometry and quantified the relationship between stream discharge and solute velocity across six study watersheds (11.4 to 62.8 km²) located in the Sawtooth Mountains of central Idaho, USA. Based on these analyses, we developed stream network travel time functions for each watershed. We found that watershed structure, stream network geometry, and the variable magnitude of inputs across the network can have a pronounced affect on water travel distances and velocities within a stream network. Accordingly, a sample taken at the watershed outlet is composed of water and solutes sourced from across the watershed that experienced a range of travel times in the stream network. We suggest that understanding and quantifying stream network travel time distributions are valuable for deconvolving signals observed at watershed outlets into their spatial and temporal sources, and separating terrestrial and in‐channel hydrological, biogeochemical, and ecological influences on in‐stream observations. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Recent progress on combining geomorphological and geochronological data with ice sheet modelling,demonstrated using the last British–Irish Ice Sheet

Palaeo-ice sheets are important analogues for understanding contemporary ice sheets, offering a record of ice sheet behaviour that spans millennia. There are two main approaches to reconstructing palaeo-ice sheets. Empirical reconstructions use the available glacial geological and chronological evidence to estimate ice sheet extent and dynamics but lack direct consideration of ice physics. In contrast, numerically modelled simulations implement ice physics, but often lack direct quantitative comparison with empirical evidence. Despite being long identified as a fruitful scientific endeavour, few ice sheet reconstructions attempt to reconcile the empirical and model-based approaches. To achieve this goal, model-data comparison procedures are required. Here, we compare three numerically modelled simulations of the former British–Irish Ice Sheet with the following lines of evidence: (a) position and shape of former margin positions, recorded by moraines; (b) former ice-flow direction and flow-switching, recorded by flowsets of subglacial bedforms; and (c) the timing of ice-free conditions, recorded by geochronological data. These model–data comparisons provide a useful framework for quantifying the degree of fit between numerical model simulations and empirical constraints. Such tools are vital for reconciling numerical modelling and empirical evidence, the combination of which will lead to more robust palaeo-ice sheet reconstructions with greater explicative and ultimately predictive power.     

Rain on snow induced urban floods in cold maritime climate: Risk,indicators and trends

Urban floods pose a societal and economical risk. This study evaluated the risk and hydro-meteorological conditions that cause pluvial flooding in coastal cities in a cold climate. Twenty years of insurance claims data and up to 97 years of meteorological data were analysed for Reykjavík, Iceland (64.15°N; <100 m above sea level). One third of the city's wastewater collection system is combined, and pipe grades vary from 0.5% to 10%. Results highlight semi-intensive rain (<7 mm/h; ≤3 year return period) in conjunction with snow and frozen ground as the main cause for urban flood risk in a climate which undergoes frequent snow and frost cycles (avg. 13 and 19 per season, respectively). Floods in winter were more common, more severe and affected a greater number of neighbourhoods than during summer. High runoff volumes together with debris remobilized with high winds challenged the capacity of wastewater systems regardless of their age or type (combined vs. separate). The two key determinants for the number of insurance claims were antecedent frost depth and total precipitation volume per event. Two pluvial regimes were particularly problematic: long duration (13–25 h), late peaking rain on snow (RoS), where snowmelt enhanced the runoff intensity, elongated and connected independent rainfall into a singular, more voluminous (20–76 mm) event; shorter duration (7–9 h), more intensive precipitation that evolved from snow to rain. Closely timed RoS and cooling were believed to trigger frost formation. A positive trend was detected in the average seasonal snow depth and volume of rain and snowmelt during RoS events. More emphasis, therefore, needs to be placed on designing and operating urban drainage infrastructure with regard to RoS co-acting with frozen ground. Furthermore, more detailed, routine monitoring of snow and soil conditions is important to predict RoS flood events.