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101.
New statistical models for long-range forecasting of southwest monsoon rainfall over India 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has been issuing long-range forecasts (LRF) based on statistical methods for the
southwest monsoon rainfall over India (ISMR) for more than 100 years. Many statistical and dynamical models including the
operational models of IMD failed to predict the recent deficient monsoon years of 2002 and 2004. In this paper, we report
the improved results of new experimental statistical models developed for LRF of southwest monsoon seasonal (June–September)
rainfall. These models were developed to facilitate the IMD’s present two-stage operational forecast strategy. Models based
on the ensemble multiple linear regression (EMR) and projection pursuit regression (PPR) techniques were developed to forecast
the ISMR. These models used new methods of predictor selection and model development. After carrying out a detailed analysis
of various global climate data sets; two predictor sets, each consisting of six predictors were selected. Our model performance
was evaluated for the period from 1981 to 2004 by sliding the model training period with a window length of 23 years. The
new models showed better performance in their hindcast, compared to the model based on climatology. The Heidke scores for
the three category forecasts during the verification period by the first stage models based on EMR and PPR methods were 0.5
and 0.44, respectively, and those of June models were 0.63 and 0.38, respectively. Root mean square error of these models
during the verification period (1981–2004) varied between 4.56 and 6.75% from long period average (LPA) as against 10.0% from
the LPA of the model based on climatology alone. These models were able to provide correct forecasts of the recent two deficient
monsoon rainfall events (2002 and 2004). The experimental forecasts for the 2005 southwest monsoon season based on these models
were also found to be accurate. 相似文献
102.
Shusaku Inoue Anil C. Wijeyewickrema Hiroyuki Matsumoto Hiroyuki Miura Priyantha Gunaratna Manoj Madurapperuma Toru Sekiguchi 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2007,164(2-3):395-411
The December 26, 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake that registered a moment magnitude (Mw) of 9.1 was one of the largest earthquakes in the world since 1900. The devastating tsunami that resulted from this earthquake
caused more casualties than any previously reported tsunami. The number of fatalities and missing persons in the most seriously
affected countries were Indonesia - 167,736, Sri Lanka - 35,322, India - 18,045 and Thailand - 8,212. This paper describes
two field visits to assess tsunami effects in Sri Lanka by a combined team of Japanese and Sri Lankan researchers. The first
field visit from December 30, 2004 – January 04, 2005 covered the western and southern coasts of Sri Lanka including the cities
of Moratuwa, Beruwala, Bentota, Pereliya, Hikkaduwa, Galle, Talpe, Matara, Tangalla and Hambantota. The objectives of the
first field visit were to investigate the damage caused by the tsunami and to obtain eyewitness information about wave arrival
times. The second field visit from March 10–18, 2005 covered the eastern and southern coasts of Sri Lanka and included Trincomalee,
Batticaloa, Arugam Bay, Yala National Park and Kirinda. The objectives of the second visit were mainly to obtain eyewitness
information about wave arrival times and inundation data, and to take relevant measurements using GPS instruments. 相似文献
103.
Bianchi Type I magnetized Cosmological model for perfect fluid distribution is investigated. The magnetic field is due to
an electric current produced along x-axis. The distribution consists of an electrically neutral perfect fluid with an infinite electrical conductivity. To get
a determinate solution, a supplementary conditionA = BC between metric potentials is used. The behaviour of the model in presence and absence of magnetic field is also discussed.
This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date. 相似文献
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107.
This paper compares artificial neural network (ANN), fuzzy logic (FL) and linear transfer function (LTF)‐based approaches for daily rainfall‐runoff modelling. This study also investigates the potential of Takagi‐Sugeno (TS) fuzzy model and the impact of antecedent soil moisture conditions in the performance of the daily rainfall‐runoff models. Eleven different input vectors under four classes, i.e. (i) rainfall, (ii) rainfall and antecedent moisture content, (iii) rainfall and runoff and (iv) rainfall, runoff and antecedent moisture content are considered for examining the effects of input data vector on rainfall‐runoff modelling. Using the rainfall‐runoff data of the upper Narmada basin, Central India, a suitable modelling technique with appropriate model input structure is suggested on the basis of various model performance indices. The results show that the fuzzy modelling approach is uniformly outperforming the LTF and also always superior to the ANN‐based models. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
108.
Anil Kumar James Done Jimy Dudhia Dev Niyogi 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》2011,114(3-4):123-137
The predictability of Cyclone Sidr in the Bay of Bengal was explored in terms of track and intensity using the Advanced Research Hurricane Weather Research Forecast (AHW) model. This constitutes the first application of the AHW over an area that lies outside the region of the North Atlantic for which this model was developed and tested. Several experiments were conducted to understand the possible contributing factors that affected Sidr??s intensity and track simulation by varying the initial start time and domain size. Results show that Sidr??s track was strongly controlled by the synoptic flow at the 500-hPa level, seen especially due to the strong mid-latitude westerly over north-central India. A 96-h forecast produced westerly winds over north-central India at the 500-hPa level that were notably weaker; this likely caused the modeled cyclone track to drift from the observed actual track. Reducing the model domain size reduced model error in the synoptic-scale winds at 500?hPa and produced an improved cyclone track. Specifically, the cyclone track appeared to be sensitive to the upstream synoptic flow, and was, therefore, sensitive to the location of the western boundary of the domain. However, cyclone intensity remained largely unaffected by this synoptic wind error at the 500-hPa level. Comparison of the high resolution, moving nested domain with a single coarser resolution domain showed little difference in tracks, but resulted in significantly different intensities. Experiments on the domain size with regard to the total precipitation simulated by the model showed that precipitation patterns and 10-m surface winds were also different. This was mainly due to the mid-latitude westerly flow across the west side of the model domain. The analysis also suggested that the total precipitation pattern and track was unchanged when the domain was extended toward the east, north, and south. Furthermore, this highlights our conclusion that Sidr was influenced from the west side of the domain. The displacement error was significantly reduced after the domain size from the western model boundary was decreased. Study results demonstrate the capability and need of a high-resolution mesoscale modeling framework for simulating the complex interactions that contribute to the formation of tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal region. 相似文献
109.
Philipp R. Heck Frank J. Stadermann Dieter Isheim Orlando Auciello Tyrone L. Daulton Andrew M. Davis Jeffrey W. Elam Christine Floss Jon Hiller David J. Larson Josiah B. Lewis Anil Mane Michael J. Pellin Michael R. Savina David N. Seidman Thomas Stephan 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2014,49(3):453-467
Atom‐probe tomography (APT) is currently the only analytical technique that, due to its spatial resolution and detection efficiency, has the potential to measure the carbon isotope ratios of individual nanodiamonds. We describe three different sample preparation protocols that we developed for the APT analysis of meteoritic nanodiamonds at sub‐nm resolution and present carbon isotope peak ratios of meteoritic and synthetic nanodiamonds. The results demonstrate an instrumental bias associated with APT that needs to be quantified and corrected to obtain accurate isotope ratios. After this correction is applied, this technique should allow determination of the distribution of 12C/13C ratios in individual diamond grains, solving the decades‐old question of the origin of meteoritic nanodiamonds: what fraction, if any, formed in the solar system and in presolar environments? Furthermore, APT could help us identify the stellar sources of any presolar nanodiamonds that are detected. 相似文献
110.
M. C. Ramadevi S. Seetha Dipankar Bhattacharya B. T. Ravishankar N. Sitaramamurthy G. Meena M. Ramakrishna Sharma Ravi Kulkarni V. Chandra Babu Kumar Brajpal Singh Anand Jain Reena Yadav S. Vaishali B. N. Ashoka Anil Agarwal K. Balaji G. Nagesh Manoj Kumar Dhruti Ranjan Gaan Prashanth Kulshresta Pankaj Agarwal Mathew Sebastian A. Rajarajan D. Radhika Anuj Nandi V. Girish Vivek Kumar Agarwal Ankur Kushwaha Nirmal Kumar Iyer 《Experimental Astronomy》2017,44(1):11-23
Scanning Sky Monitor (SSM) onboard AstroSat is an Xray sky monitor in the soft X-ray band designed with a large field of view to detect and locate transient X-ray sources and alert the astronomical community about interesting phenomena in the X-ray sky. SSM comprises position sensitive proportional counters with 1D coded mask for imaging. There are three detector units mounted on a platform capable of rotation which helps covering about 50% of the sky in one full rotation. This paper discusses the elaborate details of the instrument and few immediate results from the instrument after launch. 相似文献