Synergy of satellite remote sensing and numerical modeling for monitoring of suspended particulate matter

Monitoring and modeling of the distribution of suspended particulate matter (SPM) is an important task, especially in coastal environments. Several SPM models have been developed for the North Sea. However, due to waves in shallow water and strong tidal currents in the southern part of the North Sea, this is still a challenging task. In general there is a lack of measurements to determine initial distributions of SPM in the bottom sediment and essential model parameters, e.g., appropriate exchange coefficients. In many satellite-borne ocean color images of the North Sea a plume is visible, which is caused by the scattering of light at SPM in the upper ocean layer. The intensity and length of the plume depends on the wave and current climate. It is well known that the SPM plume is especially obvious shortly after strong storm events. In this paper a quasi-3-D and a 3-D SPM transport model are presented. Utilizing the synergy of satellite-borne ocean color data with numerical models, the vertical exchange coefficients due to currents and waves are derived. This results in models that for the first time are able to reproduce the temporal and spatial evolution of the plume intensity. The SPM models consist of several modules to compute ocean dynamics, the vertical and horizontal exchange of SPM in the water column, and exchange processes with the seabed such as erosion, sedimentation, and resuspension. In the bottom layer, bioturbation via benthos and diffusion processes is taken into account.Responsible Editor: Jörg-Olaf Wolff     

LONG-TERM VARIATIONS OF THE TORSIONAL OSCILLATIONS OF THE SUN

We investigated long-term variations of the differential rotation of the solar large-scale magnetic field on 1024 H charts in the latitude zones from +45° to -45° in the period 1915–1990. We used the expansion in terms of Walsh functions. It turns out that the rotation of the Sun becomes more rigid than average during the cycle maximum and the rotation is more differential during minimum. From 1915 to 1990, 7 bands of faster- and 7 bands of slower-than-average rotation are revealed showing an 11-year period. These bands drift towards the equator: 45° in 2.5 to 8 years. The time span of the bands varies from 4 to 6.8 years and is in anti-phase with long-term solar activity. The latitude span of the bands of torsional oscillations varies from 0.5 R to 1.3 R and shows a long-term variation of about 55 years. The poloidal component of velocity, V varies from 2 ms ^-1 to 6 ms ^-1. The maximum rate of the equatorial drift occurs in the period between 1935 and 1955 and it develops prior to the highest maximum activity. At the modern epoch from 1965 to 1985, V does not exceed 3 ms ^-1, but now it has a tendency to increase. The bands of slower-than-average rotation correspond to the evolution of the magnetic activity towards the equator in the butterfly diagram.     

Biostratigraphy of the Upper Pleistocene (Upper Neopleistocene)–Holocene deposits of the Lemeza River valley of the Southern Urals region (Russia)

Numerous caves and terraces with late Late Pleistocene (Upper Neopleistocene according to the Russian stratigraphic scale)–Holocene deposits are located in the Lemeza River valley in the surroundings of the Atysh waterfall, the native reserve territory of the Bashkortostan Republic. Lemeza River runs in the southern part of the western slope of the Urals and belongs to the Belaya River valley system (Russian Federation). A summary of the biostratigraphical investigations between 1992 and 2007 in this area is given. Deposits of cave and fluvial origin are characterized in the framework of the regional stratigraphy. The results of mammalian investigations and radiocarbon dating provide the basis for the stratigraphical subdivision. Palynology, mollusca, fishes, amphibian and reptiles are used for the reconstruction the palaeoenvironments. The Southern Urals stratigraphic subdivisions are correlated with Western European (Weichselian-Holocene), Eastern European (Russia) (Leningrad–Ostashkov–Shuvalov) and Uralian (Nevyansk–Polar Urals–Gorbunovsky) stratigraphic schemes.     

A GIS-based modeling of snow accumulation and melt processes in the Votkinsk reservoir basin

Coupled hydrological and atmospheric modeling is an efficient method for snowmelt runoff forecast in large basins. We use short-range precipitation forecasts of mesoscale atmospheric Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model combining them with ground-based and satellite observations for modeling snow accumulation and snowmelt processes in the Votkinsk reservoir basin (184,319 km²). The method is tested during three winter seasons (2012–2015). The MODIS-based vegetation map and leaf area index data are used to calculate the snowmelt intensity and snow evaporation in the studied basin. The GIS-based snow accumulation and snowmelt modeling provides a reliable and highly detailed spatial distribution for snow water equivalent (SWE) and snow-covered areas (SCA). The modelling results are validated by comparing actual and estimated SWE and SCA data. The actual SCA results are derived from MODIS satellite data. The algorithm for assessing the SCA by MODIS data (ATBD-MOD 10) has been adapted to a forest zone. In general, the proposed method provides satisfactory results for maximum SWE calculations. The calculation accuracy is slightly degraded during snowmelt periods. The SCA data is simulated with a higher reliability than the SWE data. The differences between the simulated and actual SWE may be explained by the overestimation of the WRF-simulated total precipitation and the unrepresentativeness of the SWE measurements (snow survey).     

Rainfall–runoff model parameter estimation and uncertainty evaluation on small plots

Four seasonal rainfall simulations in 2009 and 2010 were applied to a field containing 36 plots (0.75 × 2 m each), resulting in 144 runoff events. In all simulations, a constant rate of rainfall was applied then halted 60 min after initiation of runoff, with plot‐scale monitoring of runoff every 5 min during that period. Runoff was simulated with the Kinematic Runoff and Erosion/Simulator of Transport with Infiltration and Runoff (KINEROS2/STWIR) field‐scale model, whose hydrodynamics are based on the kinematic wave equation. Because of the non‐linear nature of the model and a highly parameterized model with respect to the available data, several approaches were investigated to upscale nine runoff‐related parameters from a series of small monitored plots to the field scale. Inverse modeling was performed using the model‐independent Parameter ESTimation (PEST) algorithm to individually calibrate the nine KINEROS2/STWIR parameters on 36 plots. The parameters were averaged, and bootstrapping was used to assess uncertainty of the parameters via estimation of confidence intervals (CI). A Monte Carlo simulation using the bootstrap results showed reasonable field‐scale representation of flow rates. Median values of calibrated parameters were within the 95% CI obtained with bootstrapping. The simulated results for the median values associated with the 90% CI flow rates produced similar trends as those exhibited with the observed data, suggesting that median values of the calibrated parameters from the PEST inverse modeling could be used to represent the field scale. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Mammal fauna during the Late Pleistocene and Holocene in the far northeast of Europe

The paper summarises materials on the mammal remains in northeastern Europe, dated by radiocarbon. Altogether, 23 local faunas of small mammals and 47 local faunas of large mammals were analysed. Multidimensional statistical analysis shows a strong correlation between changes in small mammal fauna composition and climate changes throughout time. The correlations with the spatial gradients, however, are less pronounced. The faunas are classified into three groups: (1) faunas of Holocene age; (2) Late Pleistocene ‘stadial’ assemblages; and (3) Late Pleistocene ‘interstadial’ assemblages. In some cases, changes in species abundance are better understood in terms of biotic interrelations rather than of climatic effects. The most pronounced change in small mammal fauna composition and structure occurred at the Preboreal/Boreal boundary, and a less conspicuous alteration took place at the LGM/Lateglacial transition. The most noticeable transformation in the large mammal fauna composition is dated to the early Holocene. Less significant changes are observed at the Middle Weichselian/LGM transition and at the LGM/Lateglacial transition. It is safely concluded that variations in the faunas of small and large mammals recorded in NE Europe during the last 35 000 years occurred synchronously and unidirectionally.     

An invariant theory of the linearized shallow water equations with rotation and its application to a sphere and a plane

The system of linearized shallow water equations is formulated in this paper on any rotating and smooth surface M in terms of differential geometry. The system decouples into two separate equations: a scalar one for the height deviation and a vector one for the velocity field. For low and high frequencies these equations yield asymptotic equations whose solutions are the generalizations of the Poincare and Rossby waves to smooth surface. The application of these equations to the β-plane yields both new and previously known equations for the height deviation and for the velocity components. The application of the equations to the rotating spherical Earth shows that the meridional amplitudes of Poincare and Rossby waves are both described by the prolate angular spheroidal wave functions. The asymptotic and the power series expansions of the eigenvalues of these functions yield new approximations for the dispersion relations of these waves on a sphere. The new dispersion relations are very accurate in the physically relevant range of the single nondimensional model parameter – the square of the nondimensional gravity waves’ phase speed. The invariant formulation can also be applied to other surfaces that are of geophysical interest such as an oblate ellipsoid of revolution.     

On the nature of lead–lag relationships during glacial–interglacial climate transitions

Analysis of leads and lags between different paleoclimate records remains an important method in paleoclimatology, used to propose and test hypotheses about causal relationships between different processes in the climate system. The robust lead of Antarctic temperature over CO₂ concentration during several recent glacial–interglacial transitions inferred from the Antarctic ice cores apparently contradicts the concept of CO₂-driven climate change and still remains unexplained. Here, using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity and generic scenarios for the principal climatic forcings during glacial–interglacial transitions we performed a suite of experiments that shed some light on the complexity of phase relationships between climate forcing and climate system response. In particular, our results provide an explanation for the observed Antarctic temperature lead over CO₂ concentration. It is shown that the interhemispheric oceanic heat transport provides a crucial link between the two hemispheres. We demonstrate that temporal variations of the oceanic heat transport strongly contribute to the observed phase relationship between polar temperature records in both hemispheres. It is shown that the direct effect of orbital variations on the Antarctic temperature is also significant and explains the observed cooling trend during interglacials. In addition, an imbedded δ¹⁸O model is used to demonstrate that during glacial–interglacial transitions, the temporal evolution of deep calcite marine δ¹⁸O in different locations and at different depths can considerably deviate from that implied by the global ice volume change. This finding indicates that the synchronization of different marine records by means of foraminiferal calcite δ¹⁸O yield large additional uncertainties. Based on our results, we argue that the analysis of leads and lags alone, without a comprehensive understanding and an adequate model of all relevant climate processes, cannot provide direct information about causal relationships in the climate system.     

Geochemistry of ultrahigh-pressure anatexis: fractionation of elements in the Kokchetav gneisses during melting at diamond-facies conditions

The Kokchetav complex in Kazakhstan contains garnet-bearing gneisses that formed by partial melting of metasedimentary rocks at ultrahigh-pressure (UHP) conditions. Partial melting and melt extraction from these rocks is documented by a decrease in K₂O and an increase in FeO + MgO in the restites. The most characteristic trace element feature of the Kokchetav UHP restites is a strong depletion in light rare earth elements (LREE), Th and U. This is attributed to complete dissolution of monazite/allanite in the melt and variable degree of melt extraction. In contrast, Zr concentrations remain approximately constant in all gneisses. Using experimentally determined solubilities of LREE and Zr in high-pressure melts, these data constrain the temperature of melting to ~1,000 °C. Large ion lithophile elements (LILE) are only moderately depleted in the samples that have the lowest U, Th and LREE contents, indicating that phengite retains some LILE in the residue. Some restites display an increase in Nb/Ta with respect to the protolith. This further suggests the presence of phengite, which, in contrast to rutile, preferentially incorporates Nb over Ta. The trace element fractionation observed during UHP anatexis in the Kokchetav gneisses is significantly different from depletions reported in low-pressure restites, where generally no LREE and Th depletion occurs. Melting at UHP conditions resulted in an increase in the Sm/Nd ratio and a decoupling of the Sm–Nd and Lu–Hf systems in the restite. Further subduction of such restites and mixing with mantle rocks might thus lead to a distinct isotopic reservoir different from the bulk continental crust.